Journal Article10.1175/bams-d-13-00281.1
The mesoscale predictability experiment (MPEX)
Morris L. Weisman,Robert J. Trapp,Glen S. Romine,Christopher A. Davis,Ryan D. Torn,Michael E. Baldwin,Lance F. Bosart,John M. Brown,Michael C. Coniglio,David C. Dowell,A. C. Evans,Thomas J. Galarneau,Julie Haggerty,Terry Hock,Kevin W. Manning,Paul J. Roebber,Pavel Romashkin,Russ S. Schumacher,Craig S. Schwartz,Ryan A. Sobash,David J. Stensrud,Stanley B. Trier +21 more
- 01 Dec 2015
Vol. 96, pp 2127-2149
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TL;DR: MPEX was a mesoscale predictability experiment conducted in the central US in 2013 to assess the ability of observational tools to extend convective-scale predictability and enhance short-term regional numerical weather prediction.
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Abstract: AbstractThe Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) was conducted from 15 May to 15 June 2013 in the central United States. MPEX was motivated by the basic question of whether experimental, subsynoptic observations can extend convective-scale predictability and otherwise enhance skill in short-term regional numerical weather prediction.Observational tools for MPEX included the National Science Foundation (NSF)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Gulfstream V aircraft (GV), which featured the Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System mini-dropsonde system and a microwave temperature-profiling (MTP) system as well as several ground-based mobile upsonde systems. Basic operations involved two missions per day: an early morning mission with the GV, well upstream of anticipated convective storms, and an afternoon and early evening mission with the mobile sounding units to sample the initiation and upscale feedbacks of the convection.A total of 18 intensive observing periods (IOPs) were compl...
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Citations
NCAR’s Experimental Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System
TL;DR: In this paper, an experimental, real-time, 10-member, 3-km, convection-allowing ensemble prediction system (EPS) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in spring 2015 is described.
152
Toward 1-km Ensemble Forecasts over Large Domains
TL;DR: This article evaluated the performance of convection-allowing ensembles with 3-and 1-km horizontal grid spacing over central and eastern portions of the United States over 15 May and 15 June 2013.
A Century of Progress in Severe Convective Storm Research and Forecasting
Harold E. Brooks,Harold E. Brooks,Charles A. Doswell,Xiaoling Zhang,A. M. Alexander Chernokulsky,Eigo Tochimoto,Barry N. Hanstrum,Ernani de Lima Nascimento,David M. L. Sills,Bogdan Antonescu,Brad Barrett +10 more
TL;DR: The history of severe thunderstorm research and forecasting over the past century has been a remarkable story involving interactions between technological development of observational and observational and forecasting tools as mentioned in this paper, which has been described in detail in a recent paper.
NCAR's Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Project
TL;DR: In this paper, the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began producing daily, real-time, experimental, 10-member ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizon.
Sensitivity of Central Oklahoma Convection Forecasts to Upstream Potential Vorticity Anomalies during Two Strongly Forced Cases during MPEX
Ryan D. Torn,Glen S. Romine +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the role of upstream subsynoptic forecast errors on forecasts of two different central Oklahoma severe convection events (19 and 31 May 2013) characterized by strong synoptic forcing during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) are evaluated by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity technique to WRF ensemble forecasts with explicit convection.
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