Abstract: A new approach to the analysis of long-term surface water-quality data is proposed and implemented. The goal of this approach is to increase the amount of information that is extracted from the types of rich water-quality datasets that now exist. The method is formulated to allow for maximum flexibility in representations of the long-term trend, seasonal components, and discharge-related components of the behavior of the water-quality variable of interest. It is designed to provide internally consistent estimates of the actual history of concentrations and fluxes as well as histories that eliminate the influence of year-to-year variations in streamflow. The method employs the use of weighted regressions of concentrations on time, discharge, and season. Finally, the method is designed to be useful as a diagnostic tool regarding the kinds of changes that are taking place in the watershed related to point sources, groundwater sources, and surface-water nonpoint sources. The method is applied to datasets for the nine large tributaries of Chesapeake Bay from 1978 to 2008. The results show a wide range of patterns of change in total phosphorus and in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite. These results should prove useful in further examination of the causes of changes, or lack of changes, and may help inform decisions about future actions to reduce nutrient enrichment in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed.Hirsch, Robert M., Douglas L. Moyer, and Stacey A. Archfield, 2010. Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), With an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):857-880. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00482.x.

Abstract: Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydrology is particularly sensitive to changes in climate because snowmelt dominates seasonal runoff, and temperature changes impact the rain/snow balance. Based on results from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), we updated previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology. PNW 21st century hydrology was simulated using 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over Washington and the greater Columbia River watershed, with additional focus on the Yakima River watershed and the Puget Sound which are particularly sensitive to climate change. We evaluated projected changes in snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow for A1B and B1 emissions scenarios for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s. April 1 SWE is projected to decrease by approximately 38–46% by the 2040s (compared with the mean over water years 1917–2006), based on composite scenarios of B1 and A1B, respectively, which represent average effects of all climate models. In three relatively warm transient watersheds west of the Cascade crest, April 1 SWE is projected to almost completely disappear by the 2080s. By the 2080s, seasonal streamflow timing will shift significantly in both snowmelt dominant and rain–snow mixed watersheds. Annual runoff across the State is projected to increase by 2–3% by the 2040s; these changes are mainly driven by projected increases in winter precipitation.

Abstract: Streamflow observations from near-natural catch- ments are of paramount importance for detection and at- tribution studies, evaluation of large-scale model simula- tions, and assessment of water management, adaptation and policy options. This study investigates streamflow trends in a newly-assembled, consolidated dataset of near-natural streamflow records from 441 small catchments in 15 coun- tries across Europe. The period 1962-2004 provided the best spatial coverage, but analyses were also carried out for longer time periods (with fewer stations), starting in 1932, 1942 and 1952. Trends were calculated by the slopes of the Kendall-Theil robust line for standardized annual and monthly streamflow, as well as for summer low flow mag- nitude and timing. A regionally coherent picture of annual streamflow trends emerged, with negative trends in southern and eastern regions, and generally positive trends elsewhere. Trends in monthly streamflow for 1962-2004 elucidated po- tential causes for these changes, as well as for changes in hydrological regimes across Europe. Positive trends were found in the winter months in most catchments. A marked shift towards negative trends was observed in April, grad- ually spreading across Europe to reach a maximum extent

Abstract: This study evaluates the sensitivity of Washington State’s freshwater habitat of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) to climate change. Our analysis focuses on summertime stream temperatures, seasonal low flows, and changes in peak and base flows because these physical factors are likely to be key pressure points for many of Washington’s salmon populations. Weekly summertime water temperatures and extreme daily high and low streamflows are evaluated under multimodel composites for A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally stress salmon throughout Washington’s watersheds, becoming increasingly severe later in the twenty-first century. Streamflow simulations predict that basins strongly influenced by transient runoff (a mix of direct runoff from cool-season rainfall and springtime snowmelt) are most sensitive to climate change. By the 2080s, hydrologic simulations predict a complete loss of Washington’s snowmelt dominant basins, and only about ten transient basins remaining in the north Cascades. Historically transient runoff watersheds will shift towards rainfall dominant behavior, undergoing more severe summer low flow periods and more frequent days with intense winter flooding. While cool-season stream temperature changes and impacts on salmon are not assessed in this study, it is possible that climate-induced warming in winter and spring will benefit parts of the freshwater life-cycle of some salmon populations enough to increase their reproductive success (or overall fitness). However, the combined effects of warming summertime stream temperatures and altered streamflows will likely reduce the reproductive success for many Washington salmon populations, with impacts varying for different life history-types and watershed-types. Diminishing streamflows and higher stream temperatures in summer will be stressful for stream-type salmon populations that have freshwater rearing periods in summer. Increased winter flooding in transient runoff watersheds will likely reduce the egg-to-fry survival rates for ocean-type and stream-type salmon.

Abstract: [1] Subsurface flow from hillslopes is widely recognized as an important contributor to streamflow generation; however, processes that control how and when hillslopes connect to streams remain unclear. We investigated stream and hillslope runoff dynamics through a wet-up period in watershed 10 of the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the western Cascades of Oregon where the riparian zone has been removed by debris flows. We examined the controls on hillslope-stream connectivity on the basis of observations of hydrometric, stable isotope, and applied tracer responses and computed transit times for multiple runoff components for a series of storms during the wet-up phase of the 2002–2003 winter rainy season. Hillslope discharge was distinctly threshold-like with a near linear response and average quick flow ratio of 0.58 when antecedent rainfall was greater than 20 mm. Hillslope and stream stormflow varied temporally and showed strong hysteretic relationships. Event water mean transit times (8–34 h) and rapid breakthrough from applied hillslope tracer additions demonstrated that subsurface contributing areas extend far upslope during events. Despite rapid hillslope transport processes during events, soil water and runoff mean transit times during nonstorm conditions were greater than the time scale of storm events. Soil water mean transit times ranged between 10 and 25 days. Hillslope seepage and catchment base flow mean transit times were between 1 and 2 years. We describe a conceptual model that captures variable physical flow pathways, their synchronicity, threshold activation, hysteresis, and transit times through changing antecedent wetness conditions that illustrate the different stages of hillslope and stream connectivity.

Abstract: We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). While all GCMs agree with respect to the direction of 21st Century temperature changes, there is considerable variability in the magnitude, direction, and seasonality of projected precipitation changes. Our simulations show that, averaged over all 11 GCMs, the Nile River is expected to experience increase in streamflow early in the study period (2010-2039), due to generally increased precipitation. Streamflow is expected to decline during mid- (2040-2069) and late (2070-2099) century as a result of both precipitation declines and increased evaporative demand. The predicted multimodel average streamflow at High Aswan Dam (HAD) as a percentage of historical (1950- 1999) annual average are 111 (114), 92 (93) and 84 (87) for A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Implications of these streamflow changes on the water resources of the Nile River basin were analyzed by quantifying the annual hydropower production and irrigation water release at HAD. The long-term HAD release for irrigation increases early in the century to 106 (109)% of historical, and then decreases to 87 (89) and 86 (84)% of historical in Periods II and III, respectively, for the A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Egypt's hydropower production from HAD will be above the mean annual average historical value of about 10,000 GWH for the early part of 21st century, and thereafter will generally follow the streamflow trend, however

Abstract: . Hydrological models are important tools for effective management, conservation and restoration of forested wetlands. The objective of this study was to test a distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, by using bi-criteria (i.e., two measurable variables, streamflow and water table depth) to describe the hydrological processes in a forested watershed that is characteristic of the lower Atlantic Coastal Plain. Simulations were compared against observations of both streamflow and water table depth measured on a first-order watershed (WS80) on the Santee Experimental Forest in South Carolina, USA. Model performance was evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe's model efficiency (E). The E and root mean squared error (RMSE) were chosen as objective functions for sensitivity analysis of parameters. The model calibration and validation results demonstrated that the streamflow and water table depth were sensitive to most of the model input parameters, especially to surface detention storage, drainage depth, soil hydraulic properties, plant rooting depth, and surface roughness. Furthermore, the bi-criteria approach used for distributed model calibration and validation was shown to be better than the single-criterion in obtaining optimum model input parameters, especially for those parameters that were only sensitive to some specific conditions. Model calibration using the bi-criteria approach should be advantageous for constructing the uncertainty bounds of model inputs to simulate the hydrology for this type of forested watersheds. R2 varied from 0.60–0.99 for daily and monthly streamflow, and from 0.52–0.91 for daily water table depth. E changed from 0.53–0.96 for calibration and 0.51–0.98 for validation of daily and monthly streamflow, while E varied from 0.50–0.90 for calibration and 0.66–0.80 for validation of daily water table depth. This study showed that MIKE SHE could be a good candidate for simulating streamflow and water table depth in coastal plain watersheds.

Abstract: . River flow regimes, including long-term average flows, seasonality, low flows, high flows and other types of flow variability, play an important role for freshwater ecosystems. Thus, climate change affects freshwater ecosystems not only by increased temperatures but also by altered river flow regimes. However, with one exception, transferable quantitative relations between flow alterations and ecological responses have not yet been derived. While discharge decreases are generally considered to be detrimental for ecosystems, the effect of future discharge increases is unclear. As a first step towards a global-scale analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems, we quantified the impact of climate change on five ecologically relevant river flow indicators, using the global water model WaterGAP 2.1g to simulate monthly time series of river discharge with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. Four climate change scenarios based on two global climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were evaluated. We compared the impact of climate change by the 2050s to the impact of water withdrawals and dams on natural flow regimes that had occurred by 2002. Climate change was computed to alter seasonal flow regimes significantly (i.e. by more than 10%) on 90% of the global land area (excluding Greenland and Antarctica), as compared to only one quarter of the land area that had suffered from significant seasonal flow regime alterations due to dams and water withdrawals. Due to climate change, the timing of the maximum mean monthly river discharge will be shifted by at least one month on one third on the global land area, more often towards earlier months (mainly due to earlier snowmelt). Dams and withdrawals had caused comparable shifts on less than 5% of the land area only. Long-term average annual river discharge is predicted to significantly increase on one half of the land area, and to significantly decrease on one quarter. Dams and withdrawals had led to significant decreases on one sixth of the land area, and nowhere to increases. Thus, by the 2050s, climate change may have impacted ecologically relevant river flow characteristics more strongly than dams and water withdrawals have up to now. The only exception refers to the decrease of the statistical low flow Q90, with significant decreases both by past water withdrawals and future climate change on one quarter of the land area. However, dam impacts are likely underestimated by our study. Considering long-term average river discharge, only a few regions, including Spain, Italy, Iraq, Southern India, Western China, the Australian Murray Darling Basin and the High Plains Aquifer in the USA, all of them with extensive irrigation, are expected to be less affected by climate change than by past anthropogenic flow alterations. In some of these regions, climate change will exacerbate the discharge reductions, while in others climate change provides opportunities for reducing past reductions. Emissions scenario B2 leads to only slightly reduced alterations of river flow regimes as compared to scenario A2 even though emissions are much smaller. The differences in alterations resulting from the two applied climate models are larger than those resulting from the two emissions scenarios. Based on general knowledge about ecosystem responses to flow alterations and data related to flow alterations by dams and water withdrawals, we expect that the computed climate change induced river flow alterations will impact freshwater ecosystems more strongly than past anthropogenic alterations.

Abstract: Implementation of sensitivity analysis (SA) procedures is helpful in calibration of models and also for their transposition to different watersheds. The reported studies on SA of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were mostly focused on identifying parameters for pruning or modifying during the calibration process. This paper presents a sensitivity and identifiability analysis of model parameters that influence stream flow generation in SWAT. The analysis was focused on evaluating the sensitivity of the parameters in different climatic settings, temporal scales and flow regimes. The global sensitivity analysis (GSA) technique based on classical decomposition of variance, Sobol', was employed in this study. The results of the study indicate that modeled stream flow show varying sensitivity to parameters in different climatic settings. The results also suggest that the identifiability of a parameter for a given watershed is a major concern in calibrating the model for the specific watershed, as it might lead to equifinality of parameters. The SWAT model parameters show varying sensitivity in different years of simulation suggesting the requirement for dynamic updation of parameters during the simulation. The sensitivity of parameters during various flow regimes (low, medium and high flow) is also found to be uneven, which suggests the significance of a multi-criteria approach for the calibration of models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract: In the American west, operational forecasts for spring–summer streamflow rely heavily on snow-water storage. Simulations with a suite of land-modelling systems suggest that snow-water storage generally contributes most to forecasting skill, but that the contribution of soil moisture is often significant, too. Seasonal predictions of streamflow can benefit from knowledge of the amounts of snow and other water present in a basin when the forecast is issued1,2,3,4,5. In the American west, operational forecasts for spring–summer streamflow rely heavily on snow-water storage and are often issued at the time of maximum snow accumulation. However, forecasts issued earlier can also show skill, particularly if proxy information for soil moisture, such as antecedent rainfall, is also used as a predictor1,4. Studies using multiple regression approaches and/or model-produced streamflows6,7,8,9 indeed suggest that information on soil moisture—a relatively underappreciated predictor—can improve streamflow predictions. Here, we quantify the relative contributions of early-season snow and soil moisture information to the skill of streamflow forecasts more directly and comprehensively: in a suite of land-modelling systems, we use the snow and soil moisture information both together and separately to derive seasonal forecasts. Our skill analysis reveals that early-season snow-water storage generally contributes most to skill, but the contribution of early-season soil moisture is often significant. In addition, we conclude that present-generation macroscale land-surface models forced with large-scale meteorological data can produce estimates of water storage in soils and as snow that are useful for basin-scale prediction.

Abstract: Understanding the impacts of land-use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land-use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AVSWAT2000). Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2). Simulation results from January 1998 to December 2002 were used for parameter calibration, and then the model was validated for the period of January 2003 to December 2004. The predicted monthly streamflow matched the observed values: during calibration the correlation coefficient was 0·86 and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient 0·79, compared with 0·80 and 0·79, respectively, during validation. The model was used to simulate the main components of the hydrological cycle, in order to study the effects of land-use changes in 1967, 1994 and 2007. The study reveals that during 1967 a 34·5% decrease of grassland with concurrent increases of shrubland (13·9%), rain-fed agriculture (12·1%), bare ground (5·5%) irrigated agriculture (2·2%), and urban area (0·7%) led to a 33% increase in the amount of surface runoff and a 22% decrease in the groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the area of sub-basins that was influenced by high runoff (14–28 mm) increased. The results indicate that the hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and shrubland) with rain-fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) is nonlinear and exhibits a threshold effect. The runoff rises dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland is removed. For groundwater this threshold lies at an 80% decrease in rangeland

Abstract: . A large number of Himalayan glacier catchments are under the influence of humid climate with snowfall in winter (November–April) and south-west monsoon in summer (June–September) dominating the regional hydrology. Such catchments are defined as "Himalayan catchment", where the glacier meltwater contributes to the river flow during the period of annual high flows produced by the monsoon. The winter snow dominated Alpine catchments of the Kashmir and Karakoram region and cold-arid regions of the Ladakh mountain range are the other major glacio-hydrological regimes identified in the region. Factors influencing the river flow variations in a "Himalayan catchment" were studied in a micro-scale glacier catchment in the Garhwal Himalaya, covering an area of 77.8 km2. Three hydrometric stations were established at different altitudes along the Din Gad stream and discharge was monitored during the summer ablation period from 1998 to 2004, with an exception in 2002. These data have been analysed along with winter/summer precipitation, temperature and mass balance data of the Dokriani glacier to study the role of glacier and precipitation in determining runoff variations along the stream continuum from the glacier snout to 2360 m a.s.l. The study shows that the inter-annual runoff variation in a "Himalayan catchment" is linked with precipitation rather than mass balance changes of the glacier. This study also indicates that the warming induced an initial increase of glacier runoff and subsequent decline as suggested by the IPCC (2007) is restricted to the glacier degradation-derived component in a precipitation dominant Himalayan catchment and cannot be translated as river flow response. The preliminary assessment suggests that the "Himalayan catchment" could experience higher river flows and positive glacier mass balance regime together in association with strong monsoon. The important role of glaciers in this precipitation dominant system is to augment stream runoff during the years of low summer discharge. This paper intends to highlight the importance of creating credible knowledge on the Himalayan cryospheric processes to develop a more representative global view on river flow response to cryospheric changes and locally sustainable water resources management strategies.

Abstract: Damodaram, Chandana, Marcio H. Giacomoni, C. Prakash Khedun, Hillary Holmes, Andrea Ryan, William Saour, and Emily M. Zechman, 2010. Simulation of Combined Best Management Practices and Low Impact Development for Sustainable Stormwater Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00462.x Abstract: Urbanization causes increased stormwater runoff volumes, leading to erosion, flooding, and the degradation of instream ecosystem health. Although Best Management Practices (BMPs) are used widely as a means for controlling flood runoff events, Low Impact Development (LID) options have been proposed as an alternative approach to better mimic the natural flow regime by using decentralized designs to control stormwater runoff at the source, rather than at a centralized location in the watershed. For highly urbanized areas, LID practices such as rainwater harvesting, green roofs, and permeable pavements can be used to retrofit existing infrastructure and reduce runoff volumes and peak flows. This paper describes a modeling approach to incorporate these LID practices in an existing hydrologic model to estimate the effects of LID choices on streamflow. The modeling approach has been applied to a watershed located on the campus of Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas, to predict the stormwater reductions resulting from retrofitting existing infrastructure with LID technologies. Results demonstrate that use of these LID practices yield significant stormwater control for small events and less control for flood events. A combined BMP-LID approach is tested for runoff control for both flood and frequent rainfall events.

Abstract: . A multi basin analysis of runoff and erosion in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia was conducted to elucidate sources of runoff and sediment. Erosion is arguably the most critical problem in the Blue Nile Basin, as it limits agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, degrades benthos in the Nile, and results in sedimentation of dams in downstream countries. A modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed to predict runoff and sediment losses from the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. The model simulates saturation excess runoff from the landscape using a simple daily water balance coupled to a topographic wetness index in ways that are consistent with observed runoff processes in the basin. The spatial distribution of landscape erosion is thus simulated more correctly. The model was parameterized in a nested design for flow at eight and sediment at three locations in the basin. Subbasins ranged in size from 1.3 to 174 000 km2, and interestingly, the partitioning of runoff and infiltrating flow could be predicted by topographic information. Model predictions showed reasonable accuracy (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies ranged from 0.53–0.92) with measured data across all sites except Kessie, where the water budget could not be closed; however, the timing of flow was well captured. Runoff losses increased with rainfall during the monsoonal season and were greatest from areas with shallow soils and large contributing areas. Analysis of model results indicate that upland landscape erosion dominated sediment delivery to the main stem of the Blue Nile in the early part of the growing season when tillage occurs and before the soil was wetted up and plant cover was established. Once plant cover was established in mid August landscape erosion was negligible and sediment export was dominated by channel processes and re-suspension of landscape sediment deposited early in the growing season. These results imply that targeting small areas of the landscape where runoff is produced can be the most effective at controlling erosion and protecting water resources. However, it is not clear what can be done to manage channel erosion, particularly in first order streams in the basin.

Abstract: [1] Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) has experienced a 15–20% reduction in rainfall since the 1970s with severe reductions in inflows to Perth drinking water reservoirs. To quantify rainfall and runoff patterns, we used trend and change point analyses for a 50 year record (1950–2008) and in the last two decades (1989–2008). From 1950–2008, trend tests showed significant declines in annual rainfall and runoff with corresponding change points for both rainfall and flow in the late 1960s or mid-1970s. In the more recent record (1989–2008), runoff declined in the majority of catchments, but rainfall did not show a significant downward trend. Rather, streamflow decline was observed as a step change in response to the occurrence of below-average rainfall years. A shift from perennial to ephemeral streams and a decline in the runoff coefficient (runoff/rainfall) in the last decade suggests a new hydrologic regime has developed with important implications for future surface water supply.

Abstract: Streamflow series of five hydrological stations were analyzed with aim to indicate variability of water resources in the Tarim River basin. Besides, impacts of climate changes on water resources were investigated by analyzing daily precipitation and temperature data of 23 meteorological stations covering 1960-2005. Some interesting and important results were obtained: (1) the study region is characterized by increasing temperature, however, only temperature in autumn is in significant increasing trend; (2) precipitation changes present different properties. Generally, increasing precipitation can be detected. However, only the precipitation in the Tienshan mountain area is in significant increasing trend. Annual streamflow of major rivers of the Tarim River basin are not in significant trends, except that of the Akesu River which is in significantly increasing trend. Due to the geomorphologic properties of the Tienshan mountain area, precipitation in this area demonstrates significant increasing trend and which in turn leads to increasing streamflow of the Akesu River. Due to the fact that the sources of streamflow of the rivers in the Tarim River basin are precipitation and melting glacial, both increasing precipitation and accelerating melting ice has the potential to cause increasing streamflow. These results are of practical and scientific merits in basin-scale water resource management in the arid regions in China under the changing environment.

Abstract: Climatic variability and forest disturbance are commonly recognized as two majordrivers influencing streamflow change in large‐scale forested watersheds. The greatestchallenge in evaluating quantitative hydrological effects of forest disturbance is theremoval of climatic effect on hydrology. In this paper, a method was designed to quantifyrespective contributions of large‐scale forest disturbance and climatic variability onstreamflow using the Willow River watershed (2860 km

Abstract: Research on the impact of water projects (dams or floodgates) on river hydrology and the surrounding environment is important in river basin management. However, it is a difficult scientific issue due to its complexity. Huai River Basin is a unique region in China with high densities in both population and water projects and is experiencing a serious pollution problem. Based on the extended SWAT model with consideration of dams & floodgates, this paper proposes a quantitative framework to assess the impact of dams & floodgates on the river flow regimes and water quality in the middle and upper reaches of Huai River Basin. The results show that: (1) The dams & floodgates reduced the basin's annual average flow by 2%, in comparison with the scenario of no water projects in the whole basin during 1991-2000, because of the regulation and storage of dams & floodgates. The flow in the non-flood season reduced 5% while the change of flow in the flood season was not acute. The impact of dams & floodgates on the annual flow are different in wet and dry years. In the wet year (1991), the impact of dams & floodgates is not obvious because the gates were opened to control the floods and their main functions are to change the temporal distribution in a year. In the dry year (1999), the flow reduced remarkably in comparison with the flow without dams & floodgates in the basin because the gates were closed in order to meet the water demand. The flow in the flood season increased by 8% whiles the flow in the non-flood season reduced by 12%. (2) There was a certain impact of dams & floodgates on water quality but they were quite different in the different area. It would be changed from the positive effect to the negative effect from the upriver to downstream. The dams & floodgates in the upper reaches played a positive role to improve water quality. But the ones in the middle and lower reaches played a negative role with contribution from 0 to 0.4. However, the contribution of exceeding pollutant discharge was more than 0.6. (3) The joint operation of dams & floodgates to control water quantity and quality will improve the water environment in Huai River Basin, but the key to improve the basin's water environment is pollution control. This research will guide the anti-pollution and the united water quantity and quality assessment of dams & floodgates in Huai River Basin. Moreover it will provide a foundation to achieve the integrated basin management and sustainability of Huai River Basin.

Abstract: Understanding the occurrence and variability of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential to managing natural resources and setting policy. The Midwest region is a key contributor in corn and soybean production, and the occurrence of droughts may affect both quantity and quality of these crops. Soil moisture observations play an essential role in understanding the severity and persistence of drought. Considering the scarcity of the long-term soil moisture datasets, soil moisture observations in Illinois have been one of the best datasets for studies of soil moisture. In the present study, the authors use the existing observational dataset and then reconstruct long-term historic time series (1916‐2007) of soil moisture data using a land surface model to study the effects of historic climate variability and projected future climate change on regional-scale (Illinois and Indiana) drought. The objectives of this study are to (i) estimate changes and trends associated with climate variables in historic climate variability (1916‐2007) and in projected future climate change (2009‐99) and (ii) identify regional-scale droughts and associated severity, areal extent, and temporal extent under historic and projected future climate using reconstructed soil moisture data and gridded climatology for the period 1916‐2007 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The authors reconstructed the soil moisture for a long-term (1916‐2007) historic time series using the VIC model, which was calibrated for monthly streamflow and soil moisture at eight U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauge stations and Illinois Climate Network’s (ICN) soil moisture stations, respectively, and then it was evaluated for soil moisture, persistence of soil moisture, and soil temperature and heat fluxes. After calibration and evaluation, the VIC model was implemented for historic (1916‐2007) and projected future climate (2009‐99) periods across the study domain. The nonparametric Mann‐Kendall test was used to estimate trends using the gridded climatology of precipitation and air temperature variables. Trends were also estimated for annual anomalies of soil moisture variables, snow water equivalent, and total runoff using a long-term time series of the historic period. Results indicate that precipitation, minimum air temperature, total column soil moisture, and runoff have experienced upward trends, whereas maximum air temperature, frozen soil moisture, and snow water equivalent experienced downward trends. Furthermore, the decreasing trends were significant for the frozen soil moisture in the study domain. The results demonstrate that retrospective drought periods and their severity were reconstructed using model-simulated data. Results also indicate that the study region is experiencing reduced extreme and exceptional droughts with lesser areal extent in recent decades.