Abstract: In this article, we draw together aspects of contemporary theories of knowledge (particularly organisational knowledge) and complexity theory to demonstrate how appropriate conceptual rigor enables both the role of government and the directions of policy development in knowledge-based economies to be identified. Specifically we ask, what is the role of government in helping shape the knowledge society of the future? We argue that knowledge policy regimes must go beyond the modes of policy analysis currently used in innovation, information and technology policy because they are based in an industrial rather than post-industrial analytical framework. We also argue that if we are to develop knowledge-based economies, more encompassing images of the future than currently obtain in policy discourse are required. We therefore seek to stimulate and provoke an array of lines of thought about government and policy for such economies. Our objective is to focus on ideas more than argument and persuasion.

Abstract: It is said that the ageing population in developed countries will cause state pension systems to collapse, cripple national health services and place unacceptable burdens on the state in terms of social benefits. This article challenges several prevalent myths about population ageing and repudiates the idea that ageing is a major economic and social burden. While it is indisputable that all advanced industrialised societies are ageing, this social fact has become a kind of mantra for opponents of the welfare state and for a collection of alarmists.

Abstract: The world is increasingly complex and the most serious challenges are global in nature. Questions to do with sustainable and equitable development, democratic change, terrorism and transnational crime, for instance, require collaborative action among governments, international organizations, corporations, universities, and nongovernmental organizations. This article, which describes 15 global challenges compiled as part of the Millennium Project’s 2002 State of the Future report, assesses the global and local prospects for humanity.

Abstract: The challenge companies face in developing innovative and profitable products and services that will be in demand in the future can be facilitated by futures studies techniques. This article presents a case study where an organization in the general insurance industry used a combination of futures studies techniques (including scenario development, causal layered analysis and backcasting) to develop over 40 new product concepts for evaluation by their strategic product development team. Some of the product concepts were considered by the client organization to be potentially revolutionary in nature.

Abstract: In the aftermath of 11 September, the future is more uncertain than ever. This article considers some of the factors contributing to this uncertainty which business planning for the future needs to take into account. These include the emergence of a new breed of consumer who are influencing a spectrum of business and economic decisions and transforming a variety of societal precepts. New consumers, more educated, affluent and well informed, are creating a more diverse and fragmented society in which traditional mass‐market communications strategies will be ineffective. Technological innovation, too, is adding to the uncertainty and forcing businesses to reinvent themselves. Those that are unable to adapt will become extinct.

Abstract: In today’s turbulent environments, competition has gone far beyond the traditional product‐based competition and taken on an increasingly new look, with its nature and rules changing fundamentally. Accordingly, firms are competing with one another at multiple levels at the same time and as a result building and enhancing multi‐layer competitive advantage is becoming the focus of competition for any firm to succeed. Tries to develop an effective framework for companies to deal with the challenges of turbulent environments by integrating existing theories and techniques together and applying them as a whole Finally, provides an integrated framework with a practical example of Haier Group as a perspective of organizational learning, where there is successful competition in a turbulent environment and where the model is implemented practically.

Abstract: In the fall of 2001, the Foresight and Governance Project at the Woodrow Wilson Center began a process to develop long‐term (40‐50 year) goals for governments. This project, supported by NASA, involved both domestic and international surveys and a workshop held in May of 2002. The workshop produced ten high priority goals and examined these goals in terms of their importance, acceptability, and possibility as well as exploring key actors and barriers to implementation. Work is now underway to develop scenarios to reach each of these goals and expand the network of stakeholders involved in the project.

Abstract: This article provides basic conceptions and visions of the regional foresight system in Finland. It includes brief information concerning foresight activities and an up‐dated description of the current regional foresight system in Finland. In the 1990s there has been a “boom” of extensive foresight and futures studies. Among the most important development projects has been the regional foresight project of Employment and Economic Development Centres (TE‐Centre). This article describes how regional foresight activities have been developed in Finland and what kind of challenges there are in the field of the Finnish regional foresight.

Abstract: The development of any region or territory stems from its own dynamic nature. Economic activity and employment are stimulated by the number of local initiatives plus the cross‐fertilisation of those same initiatives. Globalisation, external constraints and technological change are therefore not really obstacles to be overcome but rather opportunities to be seized. In our experience, participatory foresight exercise using simple and appropriate methods has proved to be a powerful lever for promoting territorial dynamics.

Abstract: A national technology foresight project was developed in Portugal in 1999 and 2000 (ET2000) with the major objective to understand and to boost the contribution of engineering and technology (E&T), to improve the competitiveness of Portuguese firms. This project was based on multiple networks promoting debate and interchange of perspectives between policy makers, administration, business and university experts. The work carried out was oriented to support the design and the implementation of policies to develop Portugal as a knowledge‐economy using E&T as a main comparative advantage achieving higher levels of internationalization, competitiveness and sustainability. Major features of ET2000 as well as its contribution to policy making are presented in this paper.

Abstract: This paper develops four alternative scenarios depicting possible futures for genomics applications within a broader social context. The scenarios integrate forecasts for future genomics applications with key drivers that are shaping genomics. Each scenario is a narrative depiction of an alternative path towards four very different futures for genomics. The scenarios are intended to give the user the a framework to explore and test their assumptions about the future of genomics, and help them explore the wider interactions between genomics applications and society. Scenario 1, “genomics, inc.”, is a “best guess extrapolation” of key drivers shaping genomics. Scenario 2, “broken promises”, explores hard times for genomics. Scenario 3, “out of our control”, explores the opportunities and challenges brought about by the globalisation of genomics. Scenario 4, “genomics for all”, explores the successful and visionary development of genomics.

Abstract: In the twenty‐first century, the forces of information technology, markets and globalization will continue to be felt and will bring about both positive and negative effects. The past century saw these forces contribute to the wealth of nations but the greatest challenge for economists in the next century and more is to understand how these forces can bring about the wealth of the world, built around the concept of sustainability (with its four pillars of economic efficiency, social equity, ecological balance, and democratic governance). This article sets an ambitious agenda for economic research along four lines: socio‐economics, mesoeconomics, technoeconomics, and foresight.

Abstract: The most important results of our recent work, the culmination of a decade of global research involving several thousand managers and professionals from large organisations, are explored in terms of how long‐range planning may be undertaken more effectively by a wider range of organisations. Thus, it has proved possible to use (simpler) scenario techniques to explore their likely futures and then develop suitable robust strategies to address these – usually with only a minimal impact on the existing optimal corporate strategies. The paper also includes summaries of the wider evidence which validates the fundamental concepts underpinning the concepts involved, but – especially – it illustrates the developments by their use with Surrey County Council.

Abstract: Speculation, hypothesizing and imagination are the dreamer’s tools. Advanced research and novel technology for the military often profit from what are sometimes unstructured approaches to invention. Once that reality materializes, it may be stranger than the phantasma of the most unleashed of minds.

Abstract: Central Government in the UK has opened the door to futures work at a local level through the modernisation programme for local government. It has created conditions for local governance which are strategic and futures‐orientated. This raises challenges and opportunities for developing expert and participative futures research to inform local thinking, decision making and action. It also opens the institutions, structures and processes at a local level to the inherently uncomfortable and destabilising thoughts of what the future may hold within an interconnected and turbulent world. This work appears to be a quiet revolution in the making, creating major opportunities for foresight, futures research and anticipatory management at a local level and for developing processes that focus civic attention on a regular basis on long‐term challenges and implications for personal, corporate and political action.

Abstract: As knowledge is released from the bounds of libraries, as research becomes no longer confined to The academy, and education/certification is available, any time/any place, the university and the faculty must redefine themselves. Liberal studies, once the core, and currently eschewed in favor of science and technology, will be reborn in those institutions that can rise above the mundane and embrace an emerging “third culture”.

Abstract: This paper describes the field of biotechnology and likely advances in health care, agricultural and other applications in industry, environmental science and energy over the next 15 years. The intent is to give those without a background in the life sciences a perspective of the broad scope of biotechnology. The forecasts at the end of each section illustrate some advances as well as some of the benefits and risks to society that might occur during the next 15 years.

Abstract: Megatrends are historical nexuses which gather and focus both obvious and subtle sub‐trends as a contribution to the history of future ideas. A substantive candidate of the twenty‐first century is “convergence”. That pursuit of “the unity of all knowledge” involves the integration, synthesis and confluence of different and often opposing intellectual concepts; and of seminal research developments and academic disciplines. Three major components and sets of authors are identified and examined: the technology of theology; the increasing interconnectedness of social, political and economic forces; and the interfacing of scientific, humanistic and spiritual domains.

Abstract: Although Robert K. Greenleaf is primarily known as the father of the empowerment movement and the advocate for servant leadership, he also had a strong and abiding interest in the anticipatory leader. Indeed, throughout his essays he developed a coherent and rigorous discipline of forecasting which involved three stages.

Abstract: This essay examines the issues that the ongoing revolution in biosciences and biotechnology pose to social science. A convenient frame for examining these issues is the framework of “thematic priorities” established by the British funding agency for social science, the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). These “thematic priorities” are used to identify major challenges and opportunities that currently confront social research. Though not constructed as part of a futures exercise, this framework proved useful for organising the issues that were generated from literature review and brainstorming, provided a stimulus to identify new issues, and was a useful filter for presenting results to the ESRC, which sponsored the study. This range of issues does not just call for interaction between natural and social scientists: there is also need for the sharing of knowledge and perspectives across diverse fields of social science. In order to help inform future research priorities, we need to move beyond the perspectives of single disciplines, and make sure that we do not simply emphasise those areas where social scientists have already been actively engaged. The study concludes clearly that there is a huge range of vital questions that social science needs to address if we are to understand, let alone bring more social intelligence to bear on shaping, the scientific and technological revolutions that are under way, and their broader social implications.

Abstract: In this article, written as part of a consulting report for the insurance industry, key trends that are likely to impact the motor insurance industry are presented. These trends include: globalization; the rise of the cultural creatives; customization; the rise of the info‐tailor; and ageing. From these trends sketches of three scenarios are presented. These are the great divide; smart cars and smart insurance; and from cars for all to mobility for all.

Abstract: It is widely recognised that stimulating research and development is the best route to stimulating an economy; and that nurturing R&D is a vital element of economic policy. Yet the “intensity” of R&D in UK organisations in most but not all industries falls well below those of US and Japanese companies and of many other countries.

Abstract: This article reports on an international assessment to identify and discuss environmental issues that may affect the US Army’s transformation efforts. Many factors, such as new kinds of weapons, increasing demands on natural resources, urbanization and globalization, are making the planning of environmental viability for life support more important in the future. The article highlights eight environmental security developments and potential military requirements to address them.

Abstract: Remote from the wreckage of Afghanistan and the recent Pakistan‐incubated Taliban frenzy, calm and confident North Africa’s Tunisia – also a Muslim state – looks optimistically to a future of innovation and accomplishment. Embarking on its tenth development plan, priorities include near‐full employment, improved education and the further emancipation of women.

Abstract: In spite of strong economic recovery since 2000, the worst of the financial crisis in Asia may not be over This article uses a predictive‐cultural‐critical framework to consider possible futures for economic development in the region In the predictive dimension, the economic outlook for Asia looks pessimistic In the cultural dimension, we give a negative expression to Asian appreciation and tolerance In the critical dimension, we indicate an inconsistency between belief and action in Asia However, a brighter future for Asia can be created if economic integration leads to political disintegration associated with market mechanisms and if the economic integration separates itself from Asian values