Abstract: (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. PremiseDuring the last four decades of the 20th century, the average total fertility rate (TFR) has continuously dropped in Europe, as it generally has in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The aggregate trend covers considerable differences across Europe, with the main differences appearing between northern and southern European countries (Eurostat 2012).During the same period, important changes have also occurred in the labour market arrangements of both men and women, with changes in individuals' and couples' economic conditions. Whereas by the 1980s the fall in fertility was coupled with a rise in female employment, since the late 1980s the fall has been accompanied by a rise in unemployment, particularly among women.Explaining the determinants of such a fall in fertility and the links with changes in the labour market statuses of both men and women has become a major topic over the last years (D'Addio and Mira d'Ercole 2005; Kreyenfeld 2010).The rise in unemployment for women and men in southern and central European countries that occurred during the 1990s has been proposed as an explanation for the more pronounced decrease in the TFR in these countries, as in other countries with low female labour force participation rates (Ahn and Mira 2002; Adsera 2005; Engelhardt and Prskawetz 2004). This evidence highlights the need to further examine the role of unemployment in fertility behaviour.This paper seeks to describe the connections between fertility and unemployment in Italy from a gender-based and geographic perspective. Italian workers have experienced a rising trend of unemployment - with gender and regional differences - since the mid-nineties, resulting in a feeling of uncertainty about the future. We are in agreement with the hypothesis that macro-level economic conditions are likely to be related to fertility (Brewster and Rindfuss 2000): in particular, economic uncertainty can induce a short-term reduction in fertility that is presumably due to the postponement of decisions to have an (additional) child until the economy recovers.We utilised time series of aggregate data on fertility and unemployment during the interval 1995-2012, which includes the period of economic downturn that began at the end of 2007.We began from the hypothesis that the connection between unemployment and fertility differs among the various Italian regions, and we used a regression dynamic model to evaluate whether changes in fertility in different Italian geographic areas are more related to changes in male or female unemployment, as well as the strength of the link. Moreover, we paid particular attention to specific temporal links between the two series in different geographical areas.The structure of the paper is as follows:- Discussion of the literature and previous research on the relationship between fertility and unemployment of both men and women. We utilised aggregate data, but we also referred to studies of individual-level data to understand how the issue has been addressed by different approaches;- Discussion of these relationships in Italy within the European context;- Methodological approach and analysis of aggregate trends of fertility and unemployment in Italy by gender and geographic area; and- Discussion of the results.2. Unemployment and fertility: A complex relationshipA modern discussion on fertility in developed countries began in the 1960s and focused on the importance of socio-economic factors at the community or country level, 4 the incompatibility between work and family, increasing female education, and the roles of women in different contexts related to specific welfare policies (Oppenheimer 1988; McDonald 2006; Pison 2009).The decrease in fertility rates in the 1960s and 1970s in most industrialised economies was correlated with an increase in female employment (Adsera 2004). …

Abstract: Background: Previous research has shown high total fertility among certain UK-born ethnic minorities, but the reasons behind their high fertility have remained far from clear. Some researchers attribute their elevated fertility levels to cultural factors, whereas others argue that high fertility is the consequence of their poor education and labour market prospects. Objective: This study investigates fertility among the descendants of immigrants in the UK and examines the determinants of high fertility among certain ethnic minority groups. Methods: We use data from the Understanding Society study and apply multivariate event history analysis. Results: The analysis shows, first, that relatively high second-, third-, and fourth-birth rates are responsible for the elevated total fertility among certain UK-born minorities, especially women of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin. There is little variation in the first-birth rates among natives and immigrant descendants. Second, although fertility differences between ethnic minorities and native British women slightly decrease once religiosity and number of siblings are controlled for, significant differences persist. We conclude that cultural factors account for some elevated fertility among ethnic groups in the UK, whereas the role of education and employment seem to be only minor. Contribution: Cultural factors account for some elevated fertility among ethnic minorities in the UK, whereas the role of education and employment seem to be negligible.

Abstract: (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThe Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 was the most severe and lengthy economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Precipitous decreases in housing values and ownership, employment, and equity markets contributed to marked declines in the economic wellbeing of many Americans. These changes also triggered several broad social and demographic changes that will likely have significant consequences in years to come. Although the Great Recession has been framed as a national phenomenon (Mitchell 2013), its effects varied considerably across different places within the country (Campbell and Sances 2013; Coleman-Jensen 2012; Owens and Cook 2013; Slack and Myers 2012). Such spatial variation in the recession's impact has likely reshaped social and economic inequality between places and across broader geographic spaces. Yet the precise extent and character of such changes remain unknown, as do the factors that differentiated recession impacts between places. Were pre-recession trends in spatial inequality exacerbated by the Recession, or has it produced a qualitatively new social and economic geography in the United States (US)? To what extent does variation in the recession's impact between places reflect differences in population composition versus structural factors? These and related questions remain largely unanswered to date.This paper attempts to address these issues, and to contribute to knowledge about spatial inequality more broadly by examining recession-related changes in the distribution of one specific measure of economic wellbeing - the unemployment rate - between US counties and states, and by identifying population and place characteristics that underlie such changes. Our focus on unemployment is motivated by the central role work plays in many aspects of social and economic life in the US. We argue that understanding unemployment dynamics at the local level can provide insight into how the recession affected broader forms of social and economic disadvantage and its distribution across local areas. These findings may be of interest to policymakers planning for future downturns. By knowing the characteristics of places that were disproportionally impacted by the recession, federal, state, and local leaders can anticipate the types of communities most likely to be negatively affected.To reach our overall goal we address three specific objectives. First, we describe recession-related changes in the distribution of unemployment prevalence between counties and within and between states. Second, we identify geographic clusters of counties that experienced similar changes in unemployment during the recession. Third, we use spatial regression to evaluate associations between county-level changes in unemployment during the recession and demographic composition, industrial structure, and state context. Our findings contribute new evidence regarding the Great Recession's spatially uneven effects on local labor markets and communities, and yield new insight into the social and demographic forces shaping local vulnerability to macroeconomic change.2. Work, labor markets, and the Great RecessionWe examine the recession's impact on local labor markets, which we measure by tracking changes in county unemployment rates. Our focus on unemployment is motivated by the centrality of work (or lack thereof) in the lives of most Americans, and the consequences of changing work patterns for individuals and the communities they inhabit. Given the strong links between unemployment and multiple forms of social and economic disadvantage (Brand 2015), county unemployment rates serve as a proxy for the prevalence of disadvantaged populations and a broad set of correlated social problems at the local level.Formal work remains the most widespread means of accumulating economic resources. In 2013 the official US poverty rate was 14.5%. However, it was 32. …

Abstract: 1.IntroductionAlthough presented as the remedy for economic problems and unemployment since the 1990s, the diffusion of new forms of flexible and temporary work contracts has transformed labor market entry and exit conditions, leading to an increasing precariousness of employment careers. Growing uncertainty has become an intrinsic characteristic of contemporary 'globalized' societies, caused by deregulation, internationalization, and delocalization (e.g., Blossfeld and Hofmeister 2006; Blossfeld, Mills, and Bernardi 2006). From the beginning of the 1990s up to 2012, the share of temporary employment rose from 10% to 16% in the Euro area (Caroli and Godard 2013; OECD 2002). Today a growing number of people - the emerging class of 'precariat' (Standing 2011) - are faced with uncertainty, moving in and out of jobs that may give little meaning to their lives.Uncertainty has spread into the partnership and parenthood domains of young adults' lives as well (e.g., Blossfeld et al. 2005; Kreyenfeld, Andersson, and Pailhe 2012; Mills and Blossfeld 2013). Among other things, economic uncertainty may affect union formation practices. American research generally supports the view that poor economic prospects for men and women are associated with a delay in marriage, and may favor cohabitation. The European literature is more limited in this respect, although some examples can be found especially in the context of the comparative project proposed by Blossfeld and colleagues; Blossfeld et al. 2005). This paper contributes to the European literature on the topic by providing insights into the influence of job precariousness on the decision of women and men to enter either cohabitation or marriage in Italy. The Italian setting typifies a unique case study. In the country, unmarried cohabitation is far less common than elsewhere in Europe and does not yet represent an integral part of family life (Rosina and Fraboni 2004). The prolonged absence of the legal recognition of civil unions4 combined with familial and social pressure to marry further contribute to leaving little room for cohabitation (Vignoli and Salvini 2014). Nonetheless, contemporary Italy faces an increasing breakdown of marriage, the diversity of union patterns is growing, and a slow but continuous process of secularization is at play (Pirani and Vignoli 2016; Sansonetti 2009). Thus, the focus on the Italian setting is important for eliciting the role of economic uncertainty in driving union formation practices when a society is undergoing secularization and revolutionary family changes.This paper adopts a mixed-method approach. The qualitative analysis - conducted with focus group techniques - provides an in-depth understanding into the mechanisms of how job precariousness may affect individual perceptions and beliefs on union formation. Then, using quantitative analysis - conducted through event-history techniques - we test how strong these mechanisms are in the general population. We continue by presenting our theoretical considerations, describing the Italian context, and deriving our research hypotheses. This is followed by a presentation of the analytical strategy, and a description of results. A concluding discussion closes the paper.2.Employment uncertainty and union formation2.1Main perspectives...The link between employment uncertainty and family formation practices is multifaceted. At first glance, and in line with the globalization and labor market deregulation perspective (Blossfeld et al. 2005; Blossfeld and Hofmeister 2006; Blossfeld, Mills, and Bernardi 2006; Mills and Blossfeld 2013), it is relatively straightforward to suppose that marriage, a resource-intensive and long-term commitment, will be postponed when people face employment uncertainty. According to the uncertainty hypothesis developed by Oppenheimer (1988), especially men's unstable careers, as indicated by low-status jobs, non-employment, and irregular and temporary employment, embody uncertainty. …

Abstract: 1. IntroductionOver the last half-century, social, economic, and cultural changes have made the transition to adulthood more dynamic, complex, and diversified in western countries (Cordon 1997; Mitchell 2007; Settersten and Ray 2010). In addition to extended post-secondary education and delayed marriage and childbearing, there has been a steady increase in the share of young adults living in the parental home (Furstenberg 2010; Payne 2012b; Stone, Berrington, and Falkingham 2011). In the U.S., the percentage of young adults ages 18-31 living in the parental home remained largely unchanged from 1981 (31%) to 2007 (32%), but then increased to 36% in 2012 (Fry 2013). Not only are U.S. young adults leaving home at an older age, but almost half of them return home after living independently (Goldscheider and Goldscheider 1999). This appears to be a much higher rate of home-returning than in Canada and some European countries, including Britain, Germany, and Sweden (Mitchell 2007). This prolonged dependence on parents is likely attributable to the declining job prospects for young adults, an increasing demand for higher education, and the rising cost of living (Newman 2012). In addition, family values among some racial-ethnic and immigrant groups may encourage coresidence with parents (Waters et al. 2011).In the U.S., transitions out of the parental home are marked by considerable diversity across racial and ethnic groups. At least among young men, levels of co-residence with parents vary substantially by racial-ethnic background. In 2011, 31% of young Black men aged 25-34 lived in the parental home, compared with 21% of young Latino men and only 15% of White men. Differences between young Black women (11%), Latino women (11%), and White women (9%) are substantially smaller (Mather 2011). Prior research found that Black and Hispanic young adults leave home at an older age than their non-Hispanic White peers (Goldscheider, Hofferth, and Curtin 2014; Mulder and Clark 2000) and are more likely to return after living away from home (Da Vanzo and Goldscheider 1990; South and Lei 2015).Yet, despite these widely acknowledged racial-ethnic differences in young adults' propensity to move out of and back into the parental home, the source of these disparities remains unclear. Recent research has attempted to explain racial-ethnic differences in parent-adult child coresidence by exploring the impact of immigration status (Glick and Van Hook 2002), social and familial roles and individual resources (Treas and Batalova 2011), and attitudes towards marriage and family (Britton 2013). However, Glick and Van Hook (2002) found that only a small share of racial/ethnic differences in parental coresidence is explained by compositional differences in nativity or recency of arrival to the U.S. Treas and Batalova (2011) eliminated the Black-White gap in parental coresidence by adjusting for young adults' social roles (e.g., spouse, parent, student, or worker) and economic resources, but were unable to explain completely the Hispanic-White difference. Britton (2013) found that higher rates of coresidence among minorities are not attributable to subcultural differences in attitudes toward family and marriage, but are partially explained by group differences in socioeconomic attainment and marital status.One limitation of most prior studies of this issue is that they have used cross-sectional data: these studies are thus incapable of identifying the events in young adults' life course that might precipitate either home-leaving or home-returning (Treas and Batalova 2011; Britton 2013). Moreover, prior research has paid little attention to other possible explanations for racial and ethnic differences in parental coresidence, particularly characteristics of the parental household and the emotional connectivity between adult children and their origin family. This study goes beyond most prior studies 1) by using longitudinal data to measure actual residential moves rather than static patterns of parental coresidence; 2) by considering both moves out of and back into the parental home; 3) by comparing the timing of moves among non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, and Hispanics in parallel fashion; and 4) by testing a wider variety of potential explanations for the racial and ethnic gaps in the timing of leaving and returning home. …

Abstract: Background Many previous empirical findings on 'motherhood penalty' and 'fatherhood premium' remain inconclusive due to potential selection biases. China's regional variation in exemptions to the one-child policy enables us to use the gender of the first child as a powerful instrumental variable (IV) in identifying the gendered fertility effects. Objective We aim to estimate the causal effects of fertility on fathers' and mothers' various outcomes in China. Methods Using the IV approach, this paper examines the gender-specific fertility effects on parents' time use, income, and subjective well-being, using data for 2010 from the China Family Panel Studies. Results Results show that while fathers spend more time at work and less time taking care of family members with more children, mothers report better subjective well-being. Moreover, fathers gain self-confidence in both their careers and the future, and mothers are happier, more satisfied with life and report better social ability. Conclusions Our findings do not directly support the gendered fertility effects on parents. However, the differential fertility effects on specific domains for mothers versus fathers are consistent with household specialisation. By interpreting this conclusion within the context of China's one-child family planning policy, our research suggests that parents would do better if the one-child policy were abolished - i.e., if parents were allowed to have more children.

Abstract: 1. IntroductionThe current study uses a large population database linking information from over 75,000 persons across early, middle, and late life to establish how the combination of childhood and adult SES are associated with late-life long-term morbidity patterns. Socioeconomic status has long been seen as a crucial morbidity and mortality determinant (Adler et al. 2008; Antonovsky 1967; Bobak et al. 2000; Braveman et al. 2010; Chen, Yang, and Liu 2010; Hay 1988; Hayward et al. 2000; Kadushin 1964; Mackenbach et al. 2008; Marmot et al. 1991). The topic of SES and health has attracted growing attention in the United States, particularly as population health has improved overall while social class gradients in health have steepened (Elo 2009; White and Preston 1996). In an attempt to explain these divergent trends, research has focused on pathways that account for persistence in and expansion of health inequalities. Some of these include mediators such as stress, social support, and preventive as well as risk behaviors (Engdahl and Tambs 2010; House et al. 1990; Marmot and Siegrist 2004; Petrelli et al. 2006; Tang, Chen, and Krewski 2003).Some research suggests pathways can operate from early life onward, implicating both childhood and adult SES as determinants of health in old age (Elo and Preston 1997; Galobardes, Lynch, and Davey Smith 2004; Galobardes, Lynch, and Smith 2008; Galobardes, Smith, and Lynch 2006; Hayward and Gorman 2004; Luo and Waite 2005; Preston, Hill, and Drevenstedt 1998; Smith and Hanson Forthcoming). Pudrovska and Anikputa (2014) have identified models that explain links between early-life SES and later-life health. The critical period model assumes that early-life disadvantages result in long-term biological and irreversible scars that manifest over time, sometimes not revealing themselves until later in life (Hamil-Luker and O'rand 2007; Kuh and BenShlomo 1997). By contrast, the pathway model assumes that early life is important not because it is directly associated with late-life health but because it shapes later-life experiences. For instance, socioeconomic conditions in adulthood will be closely related to those experienced in early life, such that adult SES is a mediator between early-life SES and later-life health (Galobardes, Lynch, and Davey Smith 2004; Lawlor et al. 2006). The cumulative risk model argues that impacts of SES compound over the life course (Kahn and Pearlin 2006; Ross and Wu 1996). In this case, effects are independent and additive, meaning that SES at different stages of the life course is autonomously important and combines to create a net effect on later-life health. Finally, there is the social mobility model (Hallqvist et al. 2004). Social mobility contends that SES in adulthood can mitigate or reverse effects of early life. For instance, upward mobility might moderate or even reverse somewhat the negative impacts of low earlylife SES. Similarly, SES disadvantages later in life can outweigh benefits that might have been accrued due to earlier life advantages. Except for the critical period model, these arguments all suggest that someone born into a low SES family is not destined to endure poor health in late life, but rather that the health effects of early-life SES are malleable (Pudrovska and Anikputa 2014).The current study adds to the discourse in a number of ways. Testing for both childhood and adult SES effects requires measures that are consistent over generations and able to reflect relative transitions in status that take place across the life course. This study employs a broad SES indicator that is consistently and reliably measured across early and later life and allows for an assessment of relative SES position within generations. While most studies of early-life SES rely on retrospective information, the current study uses objective information obtained from vital and administrative records.Studies have consistently demonstrated an association between SES and mortality or morbidity, although few have examined effects of SES on morbidity as it develops and changes over the course of old age. …

Abstract: 1. Lack of knowledge on migration in rural EthiopiaMigration is a complex, multicausal, and nonlinear demographic phenomenon that has occurred throughout human history at a variety of scales and touches the lives of many people in sub-Saharan Africa (Adepoju 2008; Malmberg 2008; Naude 2010; de Brauw, Mueller, and Lee 2014). Empirical findings for Ethiopia indicate that large-scale out-migration can be triggered by natural population increase and insufficient access to food (Ezra and Kiros 2001), overall destitution of households (Gebru and Beyene 2012), inadequate income and limited access to farm land (Bezu and Holden 2014), ecological degradation and drought (Berhanu and White 2000; Ezra 2001; Mberu 2006; Gray and Mueller 2012), government resettlement policies (Belay 2004; Hammond 2008), and employment opportunities elsewhere (Kassie et al. 2008).Approximately 84% of Ethiopia's population lives in rural areas (CSA 2010) and largely depends on agricultural activity for both income and subsistence (Gray and Mueller 2012; Bezu and Holden 2014). Due to population pressure and the country's land tenure system, the livelihood of Ethiopia's rural population is particularly endangered by declining per-capita farm land (Rahmato 2004; Bezu and Holden 2014). As state authorities allocate land use rights, land is subject to neither sale nor long-term lease contracts.If the rightholders leave the village for an extended period, their land use rights can be redistributed to the landless (FDRE 2005). The associated land right insecurity discourages landholders from out-migration (Rahmato 2004; de Brauw and Mueller 2012). By contrast, others argue that Ethiopia's land use policy also triggers the out-migration of rural landless youth (Ezra and Kiros 2001; Bezu and Holden 2014). Migration allows rural households to diversify their income sources and to overcome livelihood risks and lack of credit, land, and insurance (Taylor and Martin 2001; Ellis 2003).Rural out-migration is a common phenomenon in Ethiopia and has become a concern of development planners, researchers, and policymakers. However, due to the lack of an effective registration system, the quantitative levels of migration in Ethiopia are still unclear (Hailemariam and Adugna 2011). Moreover, there is much uncertainty regarding the determinants shaping the patterns, levels, and choices of rural migration, such as the decision for short-term versus long-term migration.To bridge these gaps, we examine the determinants of rural migration decisions in general and the choice of short-term versus long-term migration in particular for the rural context of north-west Ethiopia. As in other parts of the country, households' migration strategies in the Amhara region are very heterogeneous with respect to duration and destination. Therefore, we consider the study site as representative of other rural areas in Ethiopia regarding the determinants of household migration decisions. However, when it comes to the proportion of migrant-sending households or the share of short-term and long-term migrants, misleading generalisations should be avoided.2. Challenges of migration studiesDue to people's complex, context-specific, and diverse migration experiences, there is no universal definition, comprehensive migration theory, or common conceptual framework that serves as a starting point for empirical research (King 2002, 2012; Castles 2010). Consequently, the literature emphasises the role of an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach in empirical migration studies (see Abreu 2012; King 2012; Brettell and Hollifield 2015). Despite the complexity and context-specificity of migration decisions, we - like other scholars (Mckenzie and Rapoport 2007; Mckenzie and Sasin 2007; Sabates-Wheeler, Sabates, and Castaldo 2008) - assume that migration is no random process, but rather a choice that is influenced by a range of observable and unobservable factors that distinguish migrants from non-migrants. …

Abstract: INTRODUCTION Despite humans’ ability to reproduce throughout the year, almost all human populations exhibit seasonal variation in reproduction. The seasonality of births has been extensively studied in North America, Europe, and East Asia but less so in African settings. This paper is the first to systematically test for and document birth seasonality in Sub-Saharan Africa. DATA AND METHODS Birth data from the Demographic and Health Surveys are aggregated by country and ecological zone. The monthly time series of births are then de-trended and converted to a percent deviation from the annual monthly mean. Finally, we calculate the periodicity of the de-trended monthly birth time series using Fourier spectral analysis and ordinary least squares regression. RESULTS At the national level, births are indeed seasonal with only a few exceptions. However, we find large degrees of variation in the amplitudes (i.e., from five percent to 65 percent) and patterns (i.e., unimodal, bimodal, etc.) of seasonality across regions. Birth patterns varied with levels of maternal education, religion, and residence (i.e., urban vs. rural). Typically, mothers with lower levels of education and those residing in rural locales exhibited greater seasonal fluctuations in births. Births in West and Central African ecological zones were highly seasonal, while births in many Eastern and Southern ecological zones were not seasonal. The Eastern and Southern zones were large and included strongly heterogeneous environments and people; these heterogeneities may have masked some of the seasonal patterns.

Abstract: Objective: Little is known about how the experience of infertility or identification as someone with infertility shapes women’s fertility intentions, desires, or birth outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to help fill this gap in knowledge for fertility-intentions research. Methods: Using data from the National Survey of Fertility Barriers (NSFB), we use linear and logistic regression methods to assess how infertility and parity statuses are associated with fertility intentions and desires, as well as how statuses at one point in time predict birth three years later. Results: We find that infertility is associated with lower fertility intentions. Women who have experienced infertility and/or identify as a person with infertility, however, express greater desires to have a baby and a higher ideal number of children. Women who meet the medical criteria for infertility are less likely than fecund women to give birth, despite greater desires. Conclusions: These findings have important theoretical implications for our understanding of the meaning of fertility intentions for those who think their ability to achieve their intentions is uncertain, as well as for empirical research on fertility.

Abstract: Background: Estimates of fertility for the overseas-born based on the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR) suggest that levels of childbearing are significantly higher among foreign-born women than women born in the UK. However, migration and timing of subsequent family formation mean that aggregate measures of fertility based on period TFRs may not be a useful indicator of the likely completed family size that migrant women will have at the end of their reproductive lives. Objective: The paper quantifies childbearing according to duration since migration among female migrants to England and Wales arriving between 2001 and 2011, and examines how these patterns differ according to age at arrival and country of birth. Methods: Data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study, a 1% sample of the population of England and Wales, are used to identify the reported date of arrival in the UK and to estimate childbearing prior to and subsequent to arrival. Results: Fertility rates peak in the first one to four years subsequent to arrival among migrants from Pakistan and Bangladesh. Migrants from India and Poland show a delay in childbearing after migration to England and Wales, and lower fertility rates compared to migrants from Pakistan and Bangladesh, who show high fertility after migration at least for the first five years. Conclusions: There are large differences in the timing of fertility among migrants according to age at arrival and migrant country of origin, which are likely to be related to the reason for migration. Tempo distortions among some migrant groups mean that the period TFR is not necessarily a useful summary measure of the likely lifetime fertility of migrant groups.

Abstract: (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThere is a growing literature on the relation between improvements in life expectancy and the rise in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The subject is of the utmost interest to economists, demographers, and policymakers (at least in the developed countries, which are experiencing an ageing population and sluggish economic growth). A well-established causal link goes from income to life expectancy. According to Preston (1975), the relationship between GDP and life expectancy in the 20th century follows a logarithmic curve. The impact of GDP on life expectancy is higher when the former is low, then it decreases as GDP rises, and even disappears after GDP reaches a certain threshold. While this relationship is widely accepted in the literature4 there is no consensus on the opposite causal link, going from life expectancy to income.In economics, the unified growth theory holds that the demographic transition plays a crucial role in initiating the shift from stagnation to growth (Galor and Weil 2000; Galor 2012): The idea is that with the demographic transition, higher life expectancy leads to lower fertility and lower population growth, and thus to higher returns of human capital investments to those living longer. In turn, lower fertility and higher human capital both contribute to the rise of per capita GDP. A number of cross-country studies find a positive effect of life expectancy, or a negative effect of mortality, on income per capita (Bloom and Sachs 1998; Gallup, Sachs, and Mellinger 1999; Lorentzen, McMillan, and Wacziarg 2008), but the debate is still ongoing. For example, Acemoglu and Johnson (2007) find no impact of life expectancy on GDP per capita, and their explanation is that increased life expectancy actually accelerates population growth. More recent studies suggest that the causal effect of life expectancy on growth is non-monotonic, i.e., it is negative but insignificant before the onset of the demographic transition, and positive afterwards (Cervellati and Sunde 2011).All these studies are based on cross-sectional comparisons. By contrast, here we aim to exploit new and updated time series in order to investigate the issue from a historical perspective. We use updated long-run estimates of life expectancy and GDP for Italy and Spain (1861-2008) and compare them with the available corresponding series for France. Indeed, the development and employment of these long series - an approach that can be regarded as complementary to cross-sectional comparisons - is in itself one of the main contributions of our work. In macroeconomic history, two approaches are the most popular on quantitative grounds: cross-country studies, often using cross-sectional data, and country-specific studies, usually employing time series. In cross-country studies the data at hand is typically limited to a few benchmark years or to short periods of time. Although a wide range of countries and indicators may be included and discussed, the lack of time series may prevent these studies from dealing efficaciously with endogeneity, even when instrumental variables are introduced, while heterogeneity or even inconsistency of the data used may be overlooked. Time-series macroeconomic analyses of specific countries or regions are of course much more complete in historical coverage and at times take advantage of refined estimates, 5 but this may be detrimental to international comparisons.6 A combination of the two methods has also been used for international comparisons7 and in specific country studies. For instance, limited to the Spanish case, Perez Moreda, Reher, and Sanz Gimeno (2015: 292-299) compare GDP per capita and life expectancy/mortality in the long run by making use of both yearly series (at the national level, from 1901 to 1990) and cross-sectional data (at the regional level, in four benchmarks corresponding to the 1860s, 1900-1901, 1930-1931, and 1961), even though they only estimate simple correlations between the variables. …

Abstract: Background: Who marries whom has important implications for the (re-)production of social inequalities. Whereas previous studies on marital sorting have mainly focused on the husband’s and the wife’s traits, in this research I assess the importance of parental background in marital sorting in contemporary China in light of the tradition of marriage of matching doors. Methods: Drawing on data from the 2006 China General Social Survey, I use log-linear models to explore the extent to which couples sort based on their parents' occupational status and hukou (household registration), and the interaction between the two. Results: The results show a significant association between the occupational status of an individual’s father and of his or her spouse, net of the intergenerational mobility between parents and children and the assortative mating between the husband and the wife. Furthermore, there is a significant net association between the occupational status of an individual’s father and father-in-law. Parents’ hukou status also plays a pivotal role in marital sorting, in that an individual’s father and father-in-law tend to have the same rural or urban hukou. Nevertheless, the interaction between the father’s occupational status and hukou is not found to play a significant role in shaping the pattern of marital sorting. Conclusions: Given the persistence of the tradition of marriage of matching doors, it is important to conceptualize marriage in contemporary China as a family affair, rather than a de-institutionalized, privatized, or individualized practice.

Abstract: (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionEvent history models have a long tradition in demographic research. They represent a bridge between the classical life table methods and modern regression techniques (Hoem 1993). Unlike OLS regression, they are able to account for censoring and allow for a flexible specification of the baseline intensity and the integration of time-varying covariates into the analysis (Rizopoulos 2012). In fertility research, the most commonly used models are proportional hazard specifications, such as the piecewise exponential or the Cox model. Although they are widely used, these models have a serious shortcoming: They are unable to separate the impact of the covariates on the timing of births from the factors that influence the ultimate parity progression. As they cannot differentiate between timing and quantum, they often produce misleading results.An example of this shortcoming is that models which try to unravel the impact of female education on second and third birth progressions tend to generate confusing estimates. For western European countries, these models have often shown that highly educated women have relatively high second and third birth rates (Berinde 1999; Kravdal 2001; Kreyenfeld 2002; Olah 2003; Prskawetz and Zagaglia 2005; Gerster et al. 2007). There is, however, considerable ambivalence among demographers about how these results should be interpreted. A positive coefficient for a high level of education may indicate that highly educated women are more likely than less educated women to have a second or a third child. This is plausible, as a highly educated woman (or her partner) may be expected to have the earning power to afford a larger family. However, the results may also be indicative of differences in the timing of births among women of different educational levels. This is also a very plausible interpretation. As Ni Bhrolchain (1986) has suggested, a highly educated woman may space her births relatively closely together to minimize interruptions of her employment career. This 'work-accelerated childbearing' leads to narrow birth intervals among the highly educated, but these women do not necessarily have a greater likelihood of progressing to births of higher order. While this may be the case, conventional event history models are unable to provide an unambiguous answer to the question of whether highly educated women are more likely to progress to higher order births, or whether they simply space their births closer together than other women. Our paper addresses the call for more "real-world justifications" (Ni Bhrolchain 2011: 850) that show that it is worthwhile to separate the level and timing of fertility.Data for this analysis come from the German-Socio-Economic Panel for the years 1984-2013 (version 31.0). Event history models have shown that in Germany, as in most other western European countries, women with higher levels of education have elevated second and third birth rates (Huinink 1989; Kreyenfeld 2002). In this paper, we try to cast new light on these findings by employing cure survival models - and, more precisely, promotion time models - in the analysis of second- and third-birth fertility. Cure survival models are increasingly used in the statistical literature and in epidemiological studies. However, as Alter, Oris, and Tyurin (2007) have pointed out, these families of models are, surprisingly, rarely used in fertility studies. One of the first studies that applied cure survival models in the realm of fertility research was performed by Yamaguchi and Ferguson (1995), who studied the role of education in the transition to second and third births in the US. Their results suggested that the probability of having a second child was significantly greater for highly educated women than for less educated women, but that less educated women spaced their births closer together than highly educated women. Furthermore, highly educated women were found to be significantly more likely to have been 'cured' of a third pregnancy. …

Abstract: 1. IntroductionAlthough the literature on migration determinants in sub-Saharan Africa is extensive, most focuses on internal migration (Lucas 2006). Compared to the theoretical and empirical literature of international migration elsewhere, relatively little is known about international African migration, especially that outside the continent (Adepoju 2004; Lucas 2006; Grillo and Mazzucato 2008; Hatton and Williamson 2003). Most existing studies have adopted a qualitative approach, and the few quantitative studies are based either on aggregate data or cross-sectional micro-data (e.g., Hatton and Williamson 2003; Schoorl et al. 2000; van Dalen, Groenewold, and Schoorl 2005). As a result, there is a dearth of knowledge and quantitative empirical evidence about what drives migration from Sub-Saharan Africa, and whether this is similar to migration from other geographical regions.Acknowledging the need for appropriate data to remedy this state of affairs, the Migrations between Africa and Europe (MAFE) project collected rich retrospective biographical data in several locations in Africa and Europe (Beauchemin 2012)3. Here we use MAFE data to examine the drivers of Senegalese migration to Europe between 1976 and 2008. This migration system is an example of migration from Sub-Saharan Africa to developed societies. Although comparatively modest in absolute numbers, this migration stream has developed quickly since the 1980s.In this study we pay particular attention to the links between the micro-level factors that influence migration decisions and political, social, and economic processes in both Senegal and Europe. Very few empirical studies have examined how migration relates to historical social and economic transformations (Sassen 1988; Portes 1997; Castles and Miller 2009). Our perspective highlights the importance of institutions in regulating migration behavior and shaping migration dynamics4. Particularly useful for our purposes are several insights from institutional approaches in economics and development research that analyze how social institutions regulate migration behavior (Stark 1991; de Haan 1999; Ellis 2000). The specific characteristics of the origin and destination labor markets are central to understanding migration (Piore 1979; Portes and Bach 1985; Reyneri 2003; Villarreal and Blanchard 2013). Social groups and relationships, including migration networks and families, greatly influence migration (Massey 1990; Stark 1991). Although different, the perspectives above share several conceptual parallels. They place individual behavior in a wider societal context, analyzing how social institutions function and their role in migration. By highlighting the role of families and social networks they take into account (household) decision-making. We argue that integrating these perspectives can enhance the understanding of migration processes through a more complete consideration of how origin and destination factors interact.Our analyses focus on the following hypotheses.1) Economic Insecurity Hypothesis. The long period of economic recession experienced in Senegal and the associated reshaping of social and economic relationships involved a general deterioration of living conditions and heightened economic insecurity, which created the conditions for increasing out-migration propensities.2) Labor Demand Hypothesis. Labor market restructuring in Europe provided job opportunities in particular niches and locations.3) Social Capital Hypothesis. For Senegalese migrants, social networks link the above processes by channeling job access in Europe.4) Interaction between Labor Demand and Social Capital Hypothesis. The conjunction of periods of strong labor demand and the availability of personal networks in Europe creates a boosting effect on the migration probabilities of the Senegalese to Europe.These hypotheses specify under what conditions particular mechanisms, proposed in previous literature, are activated, leading to the development of the migration system between Senegal and Europe. …

Abstract: Previous research suggests that kin availability may be correlated with reproductive outcomes, but it is not clear that a causal relationship underlies these findings. Further, there is substantial variation in how kin availability is measured. OBJECTIVE We attempt to identify whether different measures of kin availability influence how kin affect reproductive outcomes and whether the effect of kin on reproductive outcomes is driven by the help that they provide. METHODS Using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (1993, 1997, 2000, 2007), we compare the survival of parents and parents-in-law, their co-residence, geographic proximity, contact frequency, and helping behavior in predicting fertility outcomes, and test a hypothesized causal pathway linking kin availability to reproduction via helping behavior. RESULTS We find different results if we operationalize parental availability as survival or co-residence, suggesting that these measures cannot be used interchangeably. Receiving help from parents or parents-in-law has a positive effect on progression to birth when women have fewer than three living children. Path analyses show that geographic proximity is associated with contact frequency, which in turn influences helping behavior. Kin help has a positive effect on progression to giving birth for all parental categories, but the effects are strongest for mothers-in-law. CONCLUSION In Indonesia, kin availability has a positive effect on fertility only when kin provide help, suggesting that there is a causal relationship between kin availability and fertility which is mediated via the provision of help.

Abstract: Background Education, as a key indicator of human capital, is considered one of the major determinants of internal migration, with previous studies suggesting that human capital accumulates in urban areas at the expense of rural areas. However, there is fragmentary evidence concerning the educational correlates of internal migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives The study questions whether more precise measures of migration in Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) populations support the hypothesis that migrants are self-selected on human capital and more educated people are more likely to leave rural areas or enter urban areas within a geographical region. Methods Using unique longitudinal data representing approximately 900,000 people living in eight sub-Saharan African HDSS sites that are members of the INDEPTH Network, the paper uses Event History Analysis techniques to examine the relationship between formal educational attainment and in-and out-migration, over the period 2009 to 2011. Results Between 7% and 27% of these local populations are moving in or out of the HDSS area over this period. Education is positively associated with both in-and out-migration in the Kenyan HDSS areas; however, the education effect has no clear pattern in the HDSS sites in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, and South Africa. Conclusions Empirical results presented in this paper confirm a strong age profile of migration consistent with human capital expectation, yet the results point to variability in the association of education and the propensity to migrate. In particular, the hypothesis of a shift of human capital from rural to urban areas is not universally valid.

Abstract: BACKGROUND According to the latest 2010 CDHS, Colombia’s total fertility rate (TFR) reached the level of 2.1. Studies show that the long-observed early childbearing pattern there might be changing, in particular for highly educated women, yet detailed analysis of timing of motherhood by birth order is lacking. In low fertility contexts, changes in the timing of childbearing are vital for interpreting period fertility measures and anticipating future trajectories. OBJECTIVE To study the fertility trend in Colombia since 1990 and examine how the timing of childbearing changed by birth order and across cohorts. The relationship between education and timing of motherhood is analysed in depth across cohorts. METHODS To analyse the trend in fertility and timing of childbearing, order-specific mean age at birth and tempo-adjusted TFR are calculated using CDHS. Discrete-time logit models are fitted to study the transition to first and second births across cohorts and educational groups. RESULTS Opposing trends in the timing of first and second births are found, with early transition to motherhood existing alongside postponement of second births. This process and the documented halt to the decrease in the age at first birth contribute to the end of the inflating effect of childbearing timing changes on TFR. Multivariate analysis reveals that norms relating to later transition to motherhood are emerging not only among women with university education but also among women with lower educational levels. Postponement of second births is observed in all educational strata. CONCLUSION With continuation of the documented trends, a depressing effect of the changes in the timing of childbearing on TFR could be expected in Colombia, possibly bringing it to be low replacement level.

Abstract: (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionResidential location influences individuals' proximity to important resources (such as schools, hospitals, child care facilities, labor markets, and employment opportunities) and to potential risks, including environmental threats and social hazards (such as exposure to crime and violence) (Reardon 2006). Furthermore, it impacts access to social networks and other forms of social capital; overall, it shapes human interaction and the demographic processes that originate from it, such as mortality, fertility and mobility (Almquist and Butts 2012).A minority ethnic group is spatially clustered when the spatial arrangement of minority households departs from expectations based upon a random spatial allocation (Freeman, Pilger, and Alexander 1971).In broad terms, and apart from ethnic discriminatory rules enforced by law or traditions in some places and at some times, we may distinguish between two sources of spatial clustering. One source is spatial inhomogeneity or apparent contagion. Typically, the different parts of a city exhibit large variations in the price of residential property, in the accessibility of low cost public infrastructures, and in the availability of certain types of jobs; these inhomogeneities may lead to a mostly economically induced segregation. As Schelling (1971) observes, ethnicity is often correlated with income, and income with residence; so even if residential choices were unconstrained by ethnic discrimination, the different ethnic groups would not be randomly distributed among residences.The second source is spatial attraction or true contagion. Survey data on the ideal neighborhood composition for different ethnic groups in the USA, reported in Clark and Fossett (2008), show that all groups prefer living in areas where their group is a majority or near-majority. These preferences have complex origins and may reflect attachment to group identity and culture (e.g., language, religion, customs, etc.). Newly arrived minority migrants may benefit from positive spillovers in settling close to their compatriots, in terms of reciprocal acceptance, common language, and support. Transnational social networks play an important role in channeling arriving migrants into specific neighborhoods and also into particular occupations (Gelderblom and Adams 2006).However, regardless of what the basis of the individual preferences for coethnic contact is, they produce identical patterns of residential segregation (Clark and Fossett 2008). The Schelling (1971) model provides an analysis of the implications of individual preferences and shows that when a household enters a neighborhood, that neighborhood becomes more attractive to members of the household's own group and less attractive to members of other groups. In other words, the presence of a household in a given area increases the probability of others of the same group to locating nearby.It is relevant in social research to be able to distinguish between these two sources of clustering. Whereas economic induced segregation might explain some initial degree of segregation and raises questions of social equity, the Schelling model highlights the importance of individually motivated segregation and posits that even mild preferences for living with similar neighbors carry the potential of being strong determinants for residential segregation (Clark and Fossett 2008). The spatial distribution of households may be represented by a point pattern, i.e.,a set of points in a map. Ripley's K-function (Ripley 1981) is widely used to detect clustering in point processes. The inhomogeneous K-function is a version of Ripley's K-function conceived for assessing the effects of spatial attraction (or inhibition), while adjusting for the effects of spatial inhomogeneity. In other words, this approach allows us to distinguish between the two sources of clustering, by assessing clustering above and beyond that due to apparent contagion. …

Abstract: 1. IntroductionHuman beings are social actors embedded in a network of social relationships with kin and peers. A basic assumption of social interaction theory is that important decisions in the life course, such as the decision to become a parent, are not only driven by an individual's personal characteristics but are also influenced by the traits and the behavior of the people with whom individuals interact (Bongaarts and Watkins 1996; Kohler and Buhler 2001; Bernardi 2003). Consequently, a body of literature, growing since the 1980s, acknowledges the importance of social interaction and ideational factors for childbearing intentions and generative behavior (Kohler and Buhler 2001; Bernardi and Klarner 2014). This direction of research suggests that social interaction creates, diffuses, and transforms the value of children, support for parents, and social norms that regulate both the timing and quantum of fertility.Much of the previous research into the effects of social networks on fertility has been undertaken in high-fertility contexts such as Eastern Asia and Africa (Montgomery and Casterline 1993; Kohler, Behrmann, and Watkins 2001; Rindfuss et al. 2004; Sear et al. 2009). The early focus of this literature was the implementation of state programs for birth control as well as the diffusion, acceptability, and use of modern contraception. Beginning in the early 2000s, however, the social network approach also received increasing attention as a means of explaining fertility changes in western, post-industrial societies. Examples are studies of the timing and postponement of births, the emergence of low fertility, and the diffusion of childlessness (Kohler 2001; Philipov and Kohler 2001; Kohler, Billari, and Ortega 2002).Recent qualitative research suggests that the influence of social networks on fertility operates through the following four mechanisms (Bernardi 2003; Bernardi, Keim, and Lippe 2007; Keim 2011). First, 'social pressure' is the force that leads individuals to conform to social norms, such as their parents' wish for grandchildren, in order to gain approval or to avoid conflict. Second, 'social support' is the amount of emotional, instrumental, and material help parents can activate within their social network. Third, 'emotional contagion' is defined as the spontaneous pick-up of emotional states; for example, when someone feels emotional arousal when holding a friend's baby. Fourth, through 'social learning' individuals can acquire information about the costs and benefits involved with having children.Several studies in the field of social network research strongly suggest that the effect of these four mechanisms depends on the characteristics of the parents' social network, including its structure, its composition, and the nature of its relational ties (Bernardi and Klarner 2014). For example, research has shown that the reliability of Ego's2 informer, which should be higher for strong ties, is crucial for effective social learning and actual adaption (Buhler and Kohler 2004).Following this line of thought and building on qualitative research (Keim 2011), the main goal of the present study is to identify specific types of social network by variance in their structural characteristics as well as in their potential for social pressure, social support, emotional contagion, and social learning. Although studying the separate effects of each specific mechanism carries the advantage of higher analytical precision, the typological approach proposed here is more realistic because it identifies the multidimensional social configurations in which people are embedded. Moreover, a major strength of the network approach is the identification of patterns that moderate the effectiveness of each individual mechanism of social influence (cf. Keim 2011: 216).Further, the present study gauges the predictive validity of network types with regard to the transition to parenthood. The analysis employs data from the German Family Panel Study (pairfam), which include repeated measurements of the characteristics of ego-centric social networks. …

Abstract: Background: Despite continuing marriage delay in East Asia, little is known about the shift of marriage towards later ages and the concomitant decline in marriage. Objective: Applying the concept of cohort postponement and recuperation to marriage in South Korea, I study the pattern of marriage delay among women and the extent to which delayed marriages are realized later in life. Methods: With Korean census 1% samples microdata, I compare women’s marriage schedules across five-year birth cohorts born between 1916 and 1985 and analyze the trend in marriage delay and subsequent recovery at higher ages. Results: Two distinct patterns of marriage delay can be identified. The first one occurred among the birth cohorts born in the 1930s and early 1940s, who faced successive political upheavals such as World War II and the Korean War. A different pattern of marriage delay is underway among the women born since the 1970s, among whom the proportion of the never-married by age 45 has begun to increase. These two patterns changed with level of education: The wars delayed marriage in a similar way for all social groups, whereas the recent marriage delay is more pronounced among women with tertiary education. Conclusions: The extent to which marriage delay is compensated at later ages differed across cohorts and social groups. Given the recent trend, the proportion of ever-married women by age 45 is expected to decline considerably among the younger cohorts born since the late 1970s, bringing an end to the universal marriage pattern in South Korea. Contribution: This study highlights the transition of marriage timing in South Korea, which experienced rapid socioeconomic changes, which differs significantly from the European experience.

Abstract: 1. IntroductionAlthough marriage remains almost universal in sub-Saharan Africa, there have been widespread and profound changes in the transition to marriage across the region over the last few decades (Lloyd 2005; Marcoux and Antoine 2014). Even in West Africa, where a large proportion of women still marry early, in most countries the median age of first marriage among women and, to a lesser extent, among men has consistently risen since the end of the 1970s, especially in urban areas (Hertrich 2007; Tabutin and Schoumaker 2004). Not only are first marriages postponed, but the process of union formation is also changing in many African cities, including Ouagadougou. One of the noticeable changes in the Burkinabe capital city is the rising prevalence of consensual unions among youth, who choose to cohabit with a partner without performing any marriage ceremony (Calves, Kobiane, and Martel 2007; Legrand and Younoussi 2009). Today, unmarried cohabitation seems less stigmatized than in the past, and what used to be commonly regarded by Burkinabe city dwellers as a clear "transgression of the rules" is increasingly emerging as a tolerated form of "intermediary conjugal union" (Attane 2007).Despite the growing popularity of unmarried cohabitation among youth in several African cities, and even though the rise of cohabitating unions has become a policy issue and the subject of heated public debate in some countries (Mokomane 2005a; Posel, Rudwick, and Casale 2011; Bocquier and Khasakhala 2009), cohabitation behavior is rarely studied in sub-Saharan Africa and the choice between marriage and cohabitation in the region still attracts little attention when compared to other parts of the world. In fact, unmarried cohabitation and marriage are still often treated as synonymous by Africanist demographers, who tend to group cohabiting and married women under the general label "women in union". This lack of distinction is problematic, however, as the increasing prevalence of unmarried cohabitation, even as a prelude to formal marriage, may reflect not only larger social changes such as the emergence of new values and expectations among the young generation of African city dwellers with respect to partnership and family (Werner 2006; Cole and Thomas 2009) but may also have important implications for women and their children.In fact, despite its postponement, formal marriage still constitutes an essential source of social status for women in Burkina Faso and remains crucial to their securing access to money, housing, and land (Bardem and Gobatto 1995; Rossier 2007; Roth 2010). Unlike their married counterparts, unmarried cohabiting women also lack legal and social protection when the relationship ends. As for children born within unmarried relations, their social identity and access to wealth and inheritance depend on their biological father's willingness to acknowledge paternity and support them. Scattered evidence suggests that an increasing number of young fathers in Burkinabe cities fail to do so (Mazzocchetti 2007; Carle and Bonnet 2009).In such a context, exploring the rising phenomenon of young unmarried cohabiting couples and factors affecting the choice between marriage and unmarried cohabitation among urban youth becomes all the more salient. Based on unique life history data, including biographies of relationships recently collected among young adults, the study takes a competing risks approach to examine relationship transitions to a first marriage or an unmarried cohabitating union in Ouagadougou, the capital city of Burkina Faso. The nature of the data allows us to go beyond the traditional one-sided analysis of union formation, focusing on either men or women, and evaluate how characteristics of both partners involved in a dating relationship affect the choice between marriage and nonmarital cohabitation when forming a first union.2. Background and hypotheses2.1 Rising unmarried cohabitation in urban AfricaFor a long time, marriage in sub-Saharan Africa occurred early and was universal, but since the end of 1970s most countries in the region have been moving into a new phase marked by a consistent rise in women's age at first marriage, especially in urban areas (Tabutin and Schoumaker 2004; Hertrich 2007). …

Abstract: BACKGROUND In France, nearly one in ten people are in a stable non-cohabiting partnership. Many studies have pointed out the diversity of the phenomenon. OBJECTIVE However, cross-sectional data does not distinguish between temporary, transitory, or more lasting situations. In order to contribute to a better understanding of living apart relationships, we follow changes in the partnership situation of people in stable non-coresidential intimate relationships and identify which characteristics correspond to which partnership trajectories: still living apart, moved in together, or relationship ended. METHODS The three waves of the French Generations and Gender Survey are used. After describing the state of the non-coresidential relationships after three and six years, we apply multinomial logistic regression modelling to characterize the various trajectories. RESULTS After three years, 22% of people in a stable non-coresidential relationship are still with the same partner, and after six years, 12%. The longitudinal data reveals two main situations among the youngest respondents: non-cohabitation as a stage leading ultimately to moving in together and as an experiment in intimate relationships that were considered to be stable but did not last. At the other end of the age range, non-cohabitation is more a form of coupledom in its own right, expected to last. CONCLUSIONS Our results highlight the wide diversity of the meaning of ‘non-coresidential partnership,’ depending to a large extent on the moment in the life course at which it takes place and on the relationship history. Overall, in France, non-cohabiting 1 Institut national d'etudes demographiques (INED), France. E-Mail: [email protected]. Regnier-Loilier: Partnership trajectories of people in stable non-cohabiting relationships in France 1170 http://www.demographic-research.org relationships appear to be more often a prelude and not an alternative to marriage or cohabitation, especially during the first stages of the life course. CONTRIBUTION For the first time, longitudinal data is used to study non-coresidential relationships and the partnership trajectories of people in this situation. This paper contributes to the debate on the signification of non-coresidential relationships as captured in a demographic survey.

Abstract: 1. IntroductionRetrospective marriage histories collected in surveys are a valuable source of information on nuptiality. They usually contain information on respondents' reported marriages, including marriage dates and how unions ended. Researchers have previously used survey-based marriage histories to calculate the probabilities of divorce and remarriage, examine the sociodemographic factors associated with these events, and identify respondents who divorced and/or remarried between survey waves (Amoateng and Heaton 1989; Anglewicz and Reniers 2014; Boileau et al. 2009; Brandon 1990; Fedor, Kohler, and Behrman 2015; Gage-Brandon 1992; Grant and Yeatman 2014; Hampshire and Randall 2000; Locoh and Thiriat 1995; Reniers 2003, 2008; Reniers and Tfaily 2008; Takyi and Gyimah 2007; Tilson and Larsen 2000). Despite their value, retrospective marriage histories, like other forms of survey data, may be incomplete or contain incorrect information. While researchers typically acknowledge problems with retrospective marriage histories, such as respondents omitting unsuccessful or short unions and misreporting dates (Boileau et al. 2009; Reniers 2008), it is unknown to what extent these problems occur and, more importantly, how marriage analyses are affected. Ideally, the validity of marriage histories would be measured by comparing them against public records: however, this is not feasible in many parts of Africa because civil marriages are not the norm (Enel, Pison and Lefebvre 1994; van de Walle and Meekers 1994).An alternative method is to measure their reliability by comparing marriage histories reported by the same respondent at two or more points in time. Using data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH), this study investigates whether respondents consistently report their spouses (by name), status of marriage, and dates of marriage across two survey waves. This study also investigates the characteristics associated with marriage omission and marriage date inconsistencies and examines whether misreporting biases marriage indicators. Results indicate that a considerable amount of misreporting exists and that misreporting does not appear to be random. Several marriage, individual, survey, and interviewer characteristics are associated with misreporting and marriage indicators are shown to be affected by misreporting.1.1 Theories of misreportingTwo types of misreporting are common in surveys where respondents are asked to provide autobiographical information. The first type of misreporting relates to the reporting of the event itself. A large body of literature has shown that some respondents underreport and/or overreport events such as unemployment, migration, births, pregnancy, cohabitation, and sexual behavior (Courgeau 1992; Dare and Cleland 1994; Hayford and Morgan 2008; Hertrich 1998; Mathiowetz and Duncan 1988; Ratcliffe et al. 2002; Smith and Thomas 2003). Overreporting or underreporting events can lead to calculated rates, such as birth rates and divorce rates, being over- or underestimated. It can also result in biased population-level indicators. Furthermore, regression estimates can be biased if individuals are incorrectly coded as having experienced certain events, such as sexual debut.The second type of misreporting occurs when respondents misreport event dates such as migration, marriage, and divorce, as well as the ages at which events occur, including age at first sex or marriage (Auriat 1993; Hertrich 1998; Mitchell 2010; Smith and Thomas 2003; Wringe et al. 2009; Zaba et al. 2009). Misreporting event dates can affect calculated rates by simultaneously increasing and decreasing the number of events occurring in two adjacent time periods, leading to both over- and underestimates of rates during a particular time period. By changing the temporal ordering of events, misreporting event dates can also affect analyses attempting to assign causality. Lastly, misreporting event dates can lead to the misrepresentation of trends, such as age at first sex or marriage. …

Abstract: 1. IntroductionAcross the Arab region the economic challenges young people face are believed to impede their timely entry into marriage (Dhillon 2007; Hasso 2011; Singerman 2007). This is also true in Egypt, the region's most populous country. Many Egyptians report that financing marriage and supporting a new household is more difficult today than it was in the past (Hoodfar 1997; Singerman 1995), causing youth to postpone union formation. Among Egyptians born in 1940, the median age at first marriage was 25 for men and 17 for women; in the 1970 birth cohort, this age rose to 28 for men and 20 for women (Assaad, Binzel, and Gadallah 2010). Some view this sustained increase (Mensch, Singh, and Casterline 2005; Rashad and Osman 2005) as a welcome development in a country where the population growth rate is high and where many women wed during adolescence (Singerman and Ibrahim 2003). However, many Egyptians today perceive young people's inability to marry at the time of their choosing as a pressing social problem (Salem 2015, 2016). Because marriage is the only socially accepted context for residential independence (Assaad and Barsoum 2009), sexual relations, and childbearing in Egypt (Salem 2015, 2016; Singerman 2007), many young people express frustration with their delayed departure from the parental home (Salem 2010), and some public figures worry that involuntarily single adults experience social exclusion that may lead to so-called moral deviance or religious extremism (Rashed 2006; Slackman 2008). Among scholars (Assaad and Barsoum 2009; Assaad, Binzel, and Gadallah 2010; Singerman 2007), media commentators (Salem 2016), and young people themselves (Hoodfar 1997; Salem 2010; Singerman 1995), the 'social problem' of delayed marriage is linked to economic conditions, particularly labour market conditions, in Egypt.This paper examines how young people's labour market experiences affect their marriage timing and contributes to existing scholarship in three ways. First, the present study expands upon previous analyses of Egyptian men's transition to marriage, which attribute delayed marriage to young men's inability to secure steady, adequately remunerated, protected employment (Assaad and Barsoum 2009; Assaad, Binzel, and Gadallah 2010; Dhillon, Dyer, and Yousef 2009; Singerman, 2007). It overcomes the limitations of this literature using national panel data that provide appropriately sequenced reports on employment and marriage while controlling for potential sources of spuriousness measured before the outcome of interest, namely, marriage.Second, this study extends the analyses of labour market experiences and marriage timing to include women. Egyptian women's proportional contributions to marriage expenses have grown over time (Singerman and Ibrahim 2003), and many unmarried women work to accumulate marriage assets (Amin and Al-Bassusi 2004), indicating that women's employment may be as consequential for marriage transitions as men's. The present analysis remedies the limited generalizability of previous small-N qualitative studies by using nationally representative survey data to test the association between women's labour market position and their marriage timing.Third, in addition to its investigation of employment-related determinants of marriage timing, the present study considers other determinants related to education and urban residence. I quantify the relative weight of these factors by testing them side by side and offer thoughts on how various explanations of the transition to first union may be refined to account for country-level contextual factors.2. Background2.1 Employment-related explanations of marriage timingExisting scholarship on marriage timing tends to focus on the explanatory power of three interrelated individual-level determinants: labour market experiences, education, and urban residence. The first of these, labour market factors, featured prominently in early attempts to explain union formation, which emphasized men's ability to afford marriage (Malthus 1817) and, later, to establish a financially autonomous conjugal household (Goode 1963; Hajnal 1965). …

Abstract: BACKGROUND Little is known about even the relatively recent demographic history of Africa, because of the lack of data. Elsewhere, historical demographic trends have been reconstructed by applying family reconstitution to church records. Such data also exist throughout Africa from the late 19th century. For the Counting Souls Project, nearly one million records from the oldest Catholic parishes in East and Central Africa have been digitised. These data are currently being processed into a relational database. The aim of this paper is to describe their potential for demographic reconstruction in the region, and to outline how their provenance defines the analytical approach. RESULTS Empirically, religion is correlated with population patterns in contemporary Africa, and, historically, reproduction and family formation were central to Christian mission in the region. Measuring change using sources created by agents of change raises questions of epistemology, causation, and selection bias. This paper describes how these concerns are balanced by missionary determination to follow the intimate lives of their parishioners, to monitor their 'souls', and to measure their morality, fidelity, and faith. This intimate recording means that the African parish registers, together with related sources such as missionary diaries and letters and oral histories, describe qualitatively and quantitatively what happens to individual agency (reproductive decision-making) when the moral hegemony shifts (via evangelisation and colonisation), and how the two interact in a reciprocal process of change. CONCLUSION Reconstructing long-term demographic trends using parish registers in Africa is therefore more than simply generating rates and testing their reliability. It is a bigger description of how 'decision rules' are structured and re-structured, unpicking the cognitive seam between individual and culture by exploring dynamic micro-interactions between reproduction, honour, hope, and modernity over the long term. With such a mixed-methods approach, parish registers offer real potential for historical demography in Africa.

Abstract: BACKGROUND: While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in ...

Abstract: Background: Despite extensive research on the family behavior of young adults, family dynamics of children of migrants remain largely unexplored. This is unfortunate as family transitions are strongly interlinked with transitions in other domains (e.g., education, work) and predictive for outcomes later in life. Objective: We provide a comprehensive insight into ethnic differences in family behavior of young adults, focusing on Turkish, Moroccan, Surinamese, and Antillean second-generation women and native Dutch women. Moreover, we assess the importance of mixed parentage for family behavior. Methods: Using rich administrative micro data, we apply sequence analysis and follow an entire birth cohort of second-generation women and a native Dutch comparison group from age 16 to 30. Logistic regression analyses are carried out to examine ethnic differences in the prevalence of different family trajectories. Results: We found more between-person diversity in family behavior among second-generation women than among native Dutch women, particularly during the early twenties. Turkish and Moroccan women were found to start family formation relatively early in the life course, although many had left the parental home to live alone independently. Family trajectories of Surinamese and Antillean women were characterized by unmarried cohabitation and single motherhood. Native Dutch women generally opted for premarital cohabitation and postponed marriage and childbearing. Children from mixed couples behaved more like the majority population. Contribution: We cover multiple family events simultaneously by following women of diverse origin for 15 years through young adulthood. Additionally, we study differences between children of two foreign-born parents and children of mixed couples.

Abstract: Background It is mostly assumed that both partners in couples own their homes jointly. We challenge this assumption and examine the individual ownership configurations within couples in Britain. We argue that the individual legal status as an owner will determine to what degree individuals can benefit from home ownership. Objective Two research questions are addressed: (1) How frequent is home ownership by only one partner in a couple, i.e., sole home ownership, in Britain? (2) Which factors are associated with the transition into sole home ownership for partnered individuals? Methods Using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (1992-2008) and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2010-2011), we apply logistic regression and discrete-time event history analyses. Results We find that 8% of partnered individuals in owner-occupancy are sole homeowners. Many individuals become sole homeowners at union formation by remaining the owner of a pre-union home. A substantial share of partnered individuals become sole homeowners during their unions. Overall, transitions into sole home ownership are more likely after divorce, with more economic resources, with stepchildren living in the home, for cohabitants, and with shorter union durations. Conclusions Sole home ownership is partly an outcome of demographic processes such as increased union instability and more frequent cohabitation. In turn, sole home ownership may also impinge on these processes. For instance, sole home ownership may increase the risk of union dissolution compared to joint home ownership. This is one avenue for future research.