Abstract: OBJECTIVEThis paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade.METHODSUsing data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), from Eurostat, and from the OECD database, we employ fixed-effects modeling to study how changes in unemployment rates have affected birth rates across Europe.RESULTSWe find that countries that were hit hard by the recession show reduced fertility when compared with a continuation of recent trends, especially at younger ages.CONCLUSIONOur results indicate a strong relationship between economic conditions and fertility. However, there is variation by region, age, and parity suggesting the importance of life course and institutional factors.(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1. Recent fertility development in Europe: Between trend reversal and economic crisisThe relationship between economic conditions and fertility is one of the classic research questions in family demography. Since the work of Malthus, much of the empirical literature on the determinants of fertility dynamics has been motivated by the idea that economic hardship and labor market uncertainties will cause people to postpone or revise their fertility plans (e.g., Adsera 2004; Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011; Hofmann and Hohmeyer 2012; Schmitt 2012). Since the global financial crisis swept across Europe starting in 2007, there has been renewed interest in the question of whether increasing unemployment rates and growing labor market uncertainties will have repercussions for fertility development.Unlike previous recessions and economic upheavals, the current recession is hitting Europe after a period during which the age at childbearing had continuously increased. Although a flattening out in the age at first childbearing has been reported for some European countries, it has leveled off at a relatively high level. Furthermore, the financial crisis hit Europe at a time when many countries had just started to see modest increases in their period fertility rates (Goldstein, Sobotka, and Jasilioniene 2009). In Greece, for example, an increase in the total fertility rate (TFR) that began at the turn of the century came to a halt in 2009 when the Greek economy started to crumble. From 2010 to 2011, Greece saw a decline in total fertility from 1.5 to 1.4. A similar reversal in positive fertility trends occurred in Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Romania and Spain. Most remarkable were the developments in Latvia: When unemployment rates skyrocketed, fertility rates plummeted from 1.6 in 2008 to only 1.3 in 2011. Meanwhile, the neighboring country of Lithuania, where unemployment increased at a similar pace, did not experience any strong reaction in annual birth rates over the same period. In Portugal and Italy, which were also harshly affected by the recession, the TFR has also not yet reacted to the surge in unemployment thus far. The Nordic countries of Europe, which were only mildly affected by the recession, saw an unexpected but very uniform decline in total fertility in 2011 (see Figure A1 in appendix).This overview suggests that changes in fertility in response to the crisis have not been universal. It shows that fertility rates have declined in response to the crisis in several countries. In other countries, the economic crisis disrupted the positive fertility trend that began around the turn of the century. This positive trend has largely been attributed to a gradual end to fertility postponement, which had suppressed annual fertility rates (Goldstein, Sobotka, and Jasilioniene 2009). Researchers also noted that many European countries had implemented family-friendly policies prior to the onset of the crisis, which may have created an environment that is more conducive to fertility (Thevenon 2011; Fagnani 2012). Ideational changes, particularly a resurgence of more traditional family values among the recent cohorts, have also been cited as potential reasons for the reversal in fertility trends (Goldstein, Kreyenfeld, and Rosger 2012). …

Abstract: BACKGROUND: International migration flow data often lack adequate measurements of volume, direction and completeness. These pitfalls limit empirical comparative studies of migration and cross national population projections to use net migration measures or inadequate data. OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to address these issues at a global level, presenting estimates of bilateral flow tables between 191 countries. METHODS: A methodology to estimate flow tables of migration transitions for the globe is illustrated in two parts. First, a methodology to derive flows from sequential stock tables is developed. Second, the methodology is applied to recently released World Bank migration stock tables between 1960 and 2000 (Ozden et al. 2011) to estimate a set of four decadal global migration flow tables. RESULTS: The results of the applied methodology are discussed with reference to comparable estimates of global net migration flows of the United Nations and models for international migration flows. COMMENTS: The proposed methodology adds to the limited existing literature on linking migration flows to stocks. The estimated flow tables represent a first-of-a-kind set of comparable global origin destination flow data.

Abstract: BACKGROUND The paper gives an update to earlier analysis considering youth poverty and transition to adulthood, which is timely given the economic crisis engulfing many countries in Europe. Whereas the crisis is affecting young people in particular, there is also a certain degree of variation across Europe. OBJECTIVE We document the short-term consequences of the current recession on the transition to adulthood of young Europeans, focusing on two main cornerstones in the transition to adulthood: economic independence and residential autonomy. METHODS We use a combination of OECD Employment Statistics for 2012 and micro-level data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for the period 2005-2011 for 24 countries. RESULTS We document an increase in economic hardship experienced by young adults in several European countries during the recession, which is starting to translate into higher rates of co-residence with parents, hence delaying the process of leaving home and gaining economic independence. CONCLUSIONS The way countries are reacting to the recession is not yet clear-cut, but economic uncertainty and deprivation is on the rise in those countries hardest hit, which is likely to delay the key markers of transition to adulthood.

Abstract: Background Demography is an inherently spatial science, yet the application of spatial data and methods to demographic research has tended to lag that of other disciplines. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in adding a spatial perspective to demography. This sharp rise in interest has been driven in part by rapid advances in geospatial data, new technologies, and methods of analysis. Objectives We offer a brief introduction to four of the advanced spatial analytic methods: spatial econometrics, geographically weighted regression, multilevel modeling, and spatial pattern analysis. We look at both the methods used and the insights that can be gained by applying a spatial perspective to demographic processes and outcomes. To help illustrate these substantive insights, we introduce six papers that are included in a Special Collection on Spatial Demography. We close with some predictions for the future, as we anticipate that spatial thinking and the use of geospatial data, technology, and analytical methods will change how many demographers address important demographic research questions. Conclusion Many important demographic questions can be studied and framed using spatial approaches. This will become even more evident as changes in the volume, source, and form of available demographic data-much of it geocoded-further alter the data landscape, and ultimately the conceptual models and analytical methods used by demographers. This overview provides a brief introduction to a rapidly changing field.

Abstract: Background: With the rapid aging of the population, mortality forecasting becomes increasingly important, especially for the insurance and pension industries. However, a wide variety of projection methods are in use, both between and within countries, that produce different outcomes. Objective: We review the different mortality forecasting methods and their assumptions in Europe, and assess their impact on projections of future life expectancy for the Netherlands. Methods: For the Netherlands, we assess the projections of life expectancy at birth (e0) and at age 65 (e65) up to 2050 resulting from different methods using similar explicit assumptions regarding the historical period and the jump-off rates. We compare direct linear extrapolation, the Lee-Carter model, the Li-Lee model, a cohort model, separate projections of smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality, and the official forecast. Results: In predicting mortality, statistical offices in Europe mostly use simple linear extrapolation methods. Countries with less linear trends employ other approaches or different assumptions. The approaches used in the Netherlands include explanatory models, the separate projection of smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality, and the projection of the age profile of mortality. There are clear differences in the explicit assumptions used, including assumptions regarding the historical period. The resulting e0 in 2050 varies by approximately six years. Using the same historical period (1970-2009) and the observed jump-off rates, the findings generated by different methods result in a range of 2.1 years for women and of 1.8 years for men. For e65, the range is 1.4 and 1.9 years, respectively. Conclusions: As the choice of the explicit assumptions proved to be more important than the choice of the forecasting method, the assumptions should be carefully considered when forecasting mortality.

Abstract: Since the 1970s, birth history data have become widely available, thanks notably to the Demographic and Health Surveys program. Despite their wide availability, these data remain under-exploited. Computation, even of simple indicators (fertility rates, total fertility rates, mean age at childbearing) and their standard errors, is not direct with such data, and other types of analysis (fertility differentials, reconstruction of fertility trends et cetera) may also involve reorganization of data sets and statistical modeling that represent a barrier to the use of birth history data. This paper presents a Stata software module (tfr2) that was prepared to analyze birth history data in a user-friendly and flexible way. It is designed to be used primarily with DHS data, but can also be used easily with birth histories from other sources. Three types of analysis are performed by tfr2: (1) the computation of age-specific fertility rates and TFRs, as well as their standard errors, (2) the reconstruction of fertility trends, and (3) the estimation of fertility differentials (rate ratios).The tfr2 module is composed of two parts: (1) a Stata command to transform birth history data into a table of births and exposure (tabexp), and (2) A Poisson regression model to compute fertility rates, fertility trends and fertility differentials from a table of births and exposure (produced by tabexp). Standard errors are also computed by tfr2. One can obtain tfr2 free of charge. It will work with Stata 10 and more recent versions of Stata.

Abstract: BACKGROUNDPrior studies suggest that infant mortality in rural areas of India is substantially higher than in urban areas. However, little is known about the determinants explaining such excess of rural mortality.OBJECTIVEThis study systematically assesses the role of socioeconomic and maternal and child health (MCH) care-related programme factors in explaining the rural-urban gap in infant mortality during the past two decades.METHODSLong-term changes in rural and urban infant mortality were assessed using Sample Registration System (SRS) data. Binary logistic regression was used to analyse the association between socioeconomic and MCH care-related programme factors and infant mortality using data from the three rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS). Fairlie's decomposition technique was applied to understand the relative contribution of different co-variates to the rural-urban gap in infant mortality.RESULTSRelative inequality between rural and urban India has increased over time. The rural-urban gap in infant mortality can be largely explained by the distributions of the co-variates in rural and urban area. The largest part of the rural disadvantage in infant mortality is attributable to the underlying disadvantage in household wealth and maternal education, whereas breastfeeding and knowledge of Oral Rehydration Solution has contributed to narrowing the gap. The share of women using modern contraceptive methods and the percentage of fully vaccinated children in the community have also contributed to widening the rural-urban gap in infant mortality.CONCLUSIONIn addition to strengthening MCH programmes in rural areas, substantial efforts must also be made to improve household wealth and female education levels.1. IntroductionGaps in child mortality between rich and poor countries are wide and growing, and there is evidence of growing inequity within countries (Victora et al. 2003; Mulholland et al. 2008). While substantial progress has been made in reducing child deaths, children from poor/disadvantaged households remain disproportionately vulnerable across all regions of the developing world (UNICEF 2010). Although infant mortality in India has declined dramatically over the past four decades, tremendous variations still persist across population sub-groups and geographical areas. The 2009 infant mortality rates (IMR) ranged from a low of 10 in urban Goa to a high of 72 in rural Madhya Pradesh (Registrar General of India 2011b). Several past studies have investigated socioeconomic factors affecting infant mortality in India (Jain 1985; Arnold et al. 1998; Kravdal 2004; Mohanty 2011; Singh et al. 2011; Po and Subramanian 2011), yet hardly any study has examined long-term trends in the rural- urban gap in infant mortality. Rural infants in India face higher mortality risks than their urban counterparts, irrespective of the average mortality level, than in most other developing countries (Table 1).The rural-urban mortality differential in the context of many developed and developing countries has been well documented. The literature, primarily from the developed world, suggests a dynamic association between rural-urban residence and mortality risks during infancy; whereby the relationship between the two changes depending on country of residence and over historical time periods. For instance, there was a strong rural-urban mortality differential in 19th century Western Europe and the risk of premature death was higher in cities/towns, where living conditions were poor and health and medical facilities rudimentary (Van Poppel 1989; Woods 2003; Cain and Hong 2009). However, by the end of the 19th century, the urban disadvantage in mortality risks disappeared after a number of public health interventions had been implemented and the urban environment improved (Van Poppel 1989; Haines 1995).In the case of developing countries, however, the picture is different and more complex. …

Abstract: This paper proposes the use of optimal grouping methods for determining the various age groups within a population. The cuto� ages for these groups, such as the age from which an individual is considered to be an older person, are then endogenous variables that depend on the entire population age distribution at any given moment. This method is applied to the age distributions of some industrialized countries, for which cuto� ages as well as the main indicators of aging are calculated over the last 50 years.

Abstract: We extend the ‘Wedding Ring’ agent-based model of marriage formation to include some empirical information on the natural population change for the United Kingdom together with behavioural explanations that drive the observed demographic trends. We propose a method to explore statistical properties of agent-based demographic models. By coupling rule-based explanations driving the agent-based model with observed data we wish to bring agent-based modelling and demographic analysis closer together. We present a Semi-Artificial Model of Population, which aims to bridge demographic micro-simulation and agent-based traditions. We then utilise a Gaussian process emulator – a statistical model of the base model – to analyse the impact of selected model parameters on two key model outputs: population size and share of married agents. A sensitivity analysis is attempted, aiming to assess the relative importance of different inputs. The resulting multi-state model of population dynamics has enhanced predictive capacity as compared to the original specification of the Wedding Ring, but there are some trade-offs between the outputs considered. The sensitivity analysis allows the identification of the most important parameters in the modelled marriage formation process. The proposed methods allow for generating coherent, multi-level agent-based scenarios aligned with some aspects of empirical demographic reality. Emulators permit a statistical analysis of their properties and help select plausible parameter values. Given non-linearities in agent-based models such as the Wedding Ring, and the presence of feedback loops, the uncertainty of the model cannot be assessed directly using traditional statistical methods. The use of statistical emulators offers a way forward

Abstract: African censuses and surveys remain dependent on interviewers for data collection with data quality assured through training and supervision. Many survey concepts and definitions are difficult to translate into African languages and some, such as the household, may have multiple criteria (sleeping, eating together and recognising an authority) which may not be fulfilled by everyone leading interviewers to prioritise different criteria. Some questions introduce unfamiliar ideas which may require considerable explanation by interviewers in order to obtain acceptable answers. Using published definitions, enumerator manuals and qualitative interview data with interviewers, supervisors, trainers, survey organisers and analysts in Tanzania, Uganda, Senegal and Burkina, we identify key areas where interviewer judgement plays a significant role in determining who is included or excluded from household surveys, or in shaping responses to certain questions. Interviewers take their responsibilities seriously but their preconceptions and interpretations have consequences for data reliability and harmonisation goals.

Abstract: BACKGROUNDThe gamma-Gompertz multiplicative frailty model is the most common parametric modelapplied to human mortality data at adult and old ages. The resulting life expectancy hasbeen calculated so far only numerically.OBJECTIVEProperties of the gamma-Gompertz distribution have not been thoroughly studied. The fo-cus of the paper is to shed light onto its first moment or, demographically speaking, char-acterize life expectancy resulting from a gamma-Gompertz force of mortality. The paperprovides an exact formula for gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth and a simplerhigh-accuracy approximation that can be used in practice for computational convenience.In addition, the article compares actual (life-table) to model-based (gamma-Gompertz)life expectancy to assess on aggregate how many years of life expectancy are not captured(or overestimated) by the gamma-Gompertz mortality mechanism.COMMENTSA closed-form expression for gamma-Gomeprtz life expectancy at birth contains a special(the hypergeometric) function. It aids assessing the impact of gamma-Gompertz parame-ters on life expectancy values. The paper shows that a high-accuracy approximation canbe constructed by assuming an integer value for the shape parameter of the gamma dis-tribution. A historical comparison between model-based and actual life expectancy forSwedish females reveals a gap that is decreasing to around 2 years from 1950 onwards.Looking at remaining life expectancies at ages 30 and 50, we see this gap almost disap-pearing.

Abstract: BACKGROUND Unlike other East Asian nations where preference for sons over daughters still prevails, gender preference for children in Japan has progressively shifted from son preference to visible daughter preference over the past few decades. An emergence of daughter preference is also surprising given that gender relations are more traditional in Japan than in other advanced countries. OBJECTIVE I focus on the extent to which individuals’ gender preference s are shaped by their gender role attitudes and evaluate whether daughter preference is a reflection of convergence or persistent divergence in gender roles in Japan. METHODS I use data from the Single Persons subset of the 11th Japanese National Fertility Survey conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 1997. I use multinomial logistic regression to estimate the relationship between Japanese singles’ gender role attitudes and their type of gender preference for children. RESULTS Findings suggest that the effect of gender role attitudes on one’s child gender preference differs for men and women. Overall, while daughter preference is associated with nontraditional gender role attitudes for men, daughter preference is associated with traditional attitudes for women. CONCLUSIONS Traditionalism is still driving gender preference, though in a different way for men and women. Emerging daughter preference may not simply be a reflection of improvements in women’s status, but in fact, it is likely that persistent divergence in gender roles remain in Japan.

Abstract: Objective: In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of family policies in the context of the social structure of a population. Methods: We use an agent-based model to analyse the impact of policies on individual fertility decisions and on fertility at the aggregate level. The crucial features of our model are the interactions between family policies and social structure, the agents' heterogeneity, and the structure and influence of the social network. This modelling framework allows us to disentangle the direct effect (the alleviation of resource constraints) from the indirect effect (the diffusion of fertility intentions via social ties) of family policies. Results: Our results indicate that family policies have a positive and significant impact on fertility. In addition, the specific characteristics of the social network and social effects do not only relate to fertility, but also influence the effectiveness of family policies. Conclusions: Family policies can only be successful if they are designed to take into account the characteristics of the society in which they are implemented.

Abstract: Contrary to standard theoretical predictions, there is some evidence of a negative educational gradient in divorce in Japan. In this paper, we used marital history data from a cross-sectional survey to confirm that educational attainment is inversely related to divorce and to show that, in contrast to previous findings, the negative relationship between women’s education and divorce has not become stronger in recent years. We also used fourteen years of panel survey data to evaluate four possible explanations for the observed negative educational gradient. With the exception of economic strain, we found little support for hypothesized explanations.

Abstract: Background: Because of the tendency towards equal parental rights in post-divorce custody decisions, the number of children living partially in two households after divorce has increased. Because of this evolution, traditional family typologies have been challenged. Objective: In this study, we want to describe the post-divorce custody arrangements and family configurations of Flemish adolescents (between 12 and 18 years old). Methods: We use four waves of the Leuven Adolescents and Families Study, a yearly survey in which adolescents are questioned at school about their family life, family relationships and various dimensions of their wellbeing. Our research sample consists of 1525 adolescents who experienced a parental break-up. First, we present information on the proportion of adolescents in different custody arrangements, according to divorce cohort, age and sex. Next, we describe post-divorce family configurations, according to the custody arrangement and different criteria of co-residence between children and step-parents. Results: We observe a higher proportion of adolescents spending at least 33% of time in both parental households (shared residence) for more recent divorce cohorts. A large proportion of adolescents is living with a new partner of the mother or father, but there are important differences, according to the criteria used to define stepfamily configurations. Conclusions: The relatively high incidence figures of children in shared residence challenge the current dichotomous post-divorce family concept in terms of single parent families and stepfamilies. Family typologies applying a binuclear perspective are therefore increasingly meaningful and necessary. In addition, shared residence increases the chance of co-residence with at least one step-parent, and increases the proportion of children with a part-time residential stepmother.

Abstract: BACKGROUNDGermany, like many OECD countries, faces a shift in the age composition of its population, and will face an even more drastic demographic change in the years ahead. From a theoretical point of view, decreasing cohort sizes may on the one hand reduce unemployment due to inverse cohort crowding or, on the other hand, increase unemployment if companies reduce jobs disproportionately. Consequently, the actual effect of cohort shrinkage on employment and unemployment is an empirical question.OBJECTIVEWe quantitatively assess the relationship between (un)employment and cohort sizes.METHODSWe analyze a long panel of population and labor-market data for Western German labor market regions. We isolate the direct, statistical effect of aging in a decomposition approach and estimate the overall effect by regression. In this context, we account for the likely endogeneity of cohort size due to migration of the young workforce across regions using lagged births as instrument.RESULTSThe direct effect of the age composition of the labor force on unemployment is negligible. In contrast, the elasticities of unemployment and employment with regard to the labor-market entry cohort's size are significantly positive or negative, respectively. The causal effect indicates an over-elastic reaction by unemployment.CONCLUSIONSOur results provide good news for the Western German labor market: small entry cohorts are indeed likely to decrease the overall unemployment rate and thus to improve the situation of job seekers. Accordingly, we find the employment rate is positively affected by a decrease in the youth proportion.(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1 IntroductionIn this paper we analyze the consequences of labor market entry cohort size on employ- ment and unemployment in Western Germany. Germany experienced a sharp decline in birth rates in the second half of the 1960s when the so-called "baby boom" was followed by a "baby bust". As a result, the youth proportion, i.e. the population aged 15-24, di- vided by the population aged 15-64, has dropped significantly 15 years later. In the late 1970s, this youth share was around 23% in Germany but 26% in the U.S. and even 32% in Canada (OECD average: 24%). Due to an increasing birth deficit and the aging of the baby boomer, Germany is today - together with Japan - among those industrialized coun- tries that display the lowest youth proportion among OECD member states (Germany: 17%, OECD average: 19%). Paralleling demographic development, unemployment rates have been decreasing, whereas participation rates have been increasing over the last few years in Germany.Based on these stylized facts, we analyze whether or not the size of the labor mar- ket entry cohort has affected unemployment and employment rates in Western Germany. From a theoretical perspective, the effects of cohort size changes on the labor market are unclear, as the juxtaposition of the cohort crowding hypothesis and the hypothesis of Shimer (2001) shows. With regard to the cohort crowding hypothesis, Easterlin (1961) argues that workers do not perform as well in the labor market if they belong to bigger co- horts. The reason is that labor demand is supposed to react less flexibly than labor supply. In contrast to this rationale, Shimer (2001) points out that companies have an incentive to create more jobs in regions with large youth entry cohorts, which eventually overcompen- sates the increase in the labor supply. In addition to these theoretical discrepancies, even empirical investigations provide ambiguous results (e.g. Korenman and Neumark 2000; Skans 2005; Foote 2007). It is at this point that our analysis adds to the existing literature. We study the impact of shrinking cohort sizes on (un)employment over a long time span, i.e. from 1978 to 2009, consider functional regional labor markets as an appropriate unit of analysis and apply various econometric robustness checks. …

Abstract: BACKGROUNDIn recent years, several studies have reported a positive effect of women's education on the transition to second births. This finding contradicts the economic theory of fertility. Three explanations were proposed: the selection, the time-squeeze, and the partner effect hypotheses.OBJECTIVEWe propose a modification of the economic theory to account for the positive educational gradient with regard to second births. We empirically examine the effect of women's education on the timing of second births.METHODSWe use a sample of women born between 1946 and 1983 from all three waves of the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) data. We estimate lognormal survival models of the timing of second births.RESULTSWe find that female education reduces the waiting time to second conception in Hungary. The results remain robust after controlling for sample selection and cannot be explained away in terms of time-squeeze and the partner's education.CONCLUSIONSWe conclude that the relationship between women's education and spacing behavior might be a causal one.1. IntroductionIn recent years, several studies have examined the relationship between education and the transition to second births (Kreyenfeld 2002; Gerster et al. 2007; Kravdal 2001; 2007; Klesment and Puur 2010; Muresan and Hoem 2010; Billingsley 2011). In most of these studies, women's education was found to have a significant positive effect on the transition to second births. This finding contradicts the economic theory of fertility, which argues that both quantum and tempo fertility is negatively related to education. The negative quantum effect arises because the shadow price of raising (high-quality) children is relatively high for educated women (Becker and Lewis 1973; Jones, Schoonbroodt, and Tertilt 2008). The negative tempo effect is due to the fact that wages rise with experience and postponement of childbearing minimizes the lifetime opportunity costs of career interruption (Mincer and Polachek 1974; Happel, Hill, and Low 1984; Montgomery and Trussel 1986; Taniguchi 1999).In order to account for the surprising positive effect of female education on the transition to second births, three explanations were proposed (Kreyenfeld 2002). The selection effect hypothesis states that women with a strong unobserved preference for children are over-represented among those who postpone the first birth, and this unobserved characteristic is responsible for the fast transition to second birth. The time-squeeze hypothesis argues that women who postpone the first birth are closer to the end of their reproductive span, which reduces the waiting time to the second birth. Finally, the partner effect hypothesis states that the positive effect of family income on childbearing, known as the income effect, suppresses the opposite effect of the shadow price of raising high-quality children (Becker and Lewis 1973; Jones, Schoonbroodt, and Tertilt 2008). The argument is supplemented with the empirically realistic assumption that highly educated women tend to marry (or live with) educated men, a phenomenon known as educational homogamy or assortative mating (Becker 1981; Kalmijn 1998). If wages rise with experience, especially among educated men, the postponement of the first child minimizes not only the lifetime foregone earnings of women but also helps the educated partner reach a high income level, reducing the cost of raising high-quality children.The objective of this paper is to describe and explain the relationship between education and the transition to second birth in Hungary. Our research questions are: (1) Do women with higher education space births closer together? (2) Can the relationship between education and spacing of births be explained in terms of self-selection, time-squeeze, or the partner's education? The relevance of the second question is related to the fact that while the selection, the time-squeeze, and the partner effect hypotheses assume that the relationship between education and spacing of births is a spurious one, there is some evidence (Gerster et al. …

Abstract: BACKGROUND Existing research on intergenerational transfers has focused on income and wealth as the predominant determinants of the provision of financial assistance to adult children (Albertini, Kohli, and Vogel 2006; Zissimopoulos and Smith 2010; Albertini and Radl 2012). Yet previous models of intergenerational transfers underestimated the effect of family size due to the effect of birth order and inappropriate research design. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to more accurately describe the relationship between family size and intergenerational financial transfers in Europe. In developing a more appropriate theoretical and empirical understanding of intergenerational behaviour by borrowing findings from other areas of family studies, this paper explores the issues involved in the complex analysis of cross generational issues such as sampling, diverse and complex family forms, and unobserved family- and individual-level heterogeneity. METHODS Using multilevel methods to nest individual children in their extended families, this paper analyses data from the Survey for Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, and concludes that family size and birth order are essential for understanding intergenerational transfers. Logit and Tobit models are used to predict transfer occurrence and amount, and therefore avoid bias estimates found with OLS in existing research. RESULTS The analysis suggests that an only child is more than four times as likely to receive financial assistance as someone in a four-child family. This means that the maximum effect of family size is more than twice that of parental income. A separate and independent effect of birth order is also identified, which suggests that the oldest in a four-child family is twice as likely to receive financial assistance as their youngest sibling. CONCLUSIONS The policy implications of this finding are significant in the context of an ageing society and demographic change, suggesting a shift in focus from financial to demographic models of intergenerational dependency. The conclusions argue for the use of multilevel modelling in the future analysis of intergenerational transfers. Doing so may help refocus intergenerational transfers research onto issues of family structure and circumstance, rather than the direct transfer of resources from one generation to the next, as described by altruistic and exchange models of transfer behaviour.

Abstract: BACKGROUNDThe cohorts who will reach age 60 after 2010 in the Latin American and Caribbean region (LAC) are beneficiaries of a massive mortality decline that began as early as 1930. The bulk of this decline is due to the diffusion of low-cost medical technologies that improved recovery rates from infectious diseases. This decline has led to distinct changes in the composition of elderly cohorts, especially as those who could experience as adults the negative effects of adverse early conditions survive to old age.OBJECTIVEOur goal is to compute the bounds for the size of the effects on old-age mortality of changes in cohorts' composition by their exposure to adverse early conditions. We calculate estimates for countries in the LAC region that span the entire range of the post-1950 mortality decline.METHODSWe use counterfactual population projections to estimate the bounds of the changes in the composition of cohorts by their exposure to adverse early conditions. These are combined with the empirical effects of adverse early conditions on adult mortality to generate estimates of foregone gains in life expectancy at age 60.RESULTSAccording to somewhat conservative assumptions, life expectancy at age 60 will at best increase much more slowly than in the past, and will at worst reach a steady state or decline. The foregone gains may be as high as 20% of the projected values over a period of 30 to 50 years; i.e., the time it takes for cohorts who reaped the benefits of the secular mortality decline to become extinct.CONCLUSIONSThe changing composition of cohorts by early exposures represents a powerful force that could drag down or halt short-run progress in life expectancy at older ages.(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThe rate of the decline in the force of mortality at older ages after 1950 in western Europe has been estimated to be close to 1% per year (Kannisto 1994; Kannisto et al. 1994). As the initial levels of life expectancy at age 60 are between 15 and 20 years, this rate of decline yields gains in life expectancy at age 60 of about 0.10 years per year. This type of progress is not unique. Recent evidence from countries in the Latin American and Caribbean regions (LAC) (CELADE 2007; Chackiel 2004; Palloni and Pinto 2011) confirms that the increase in life expectancy at age 60-from about 18 years in 1950 to about 23 in 1995-has unfolded in an almost linear fashion. In this case as well, the rate of progress is equivalent to yearly gains in life expectancy at age 60 of about 0.11 years per year, close to the rate of change seen in western Europe. This empiric fits nicely with the idea that human mortality is currently on a positive course (Oeppen and Vaupel 2002). But there are storm clouds ahead that deserve our attention.It has been pointed out that lifestyle changes embraced by newer cohorts of elderly people both in high- and low-income countries could prevent any further improvements in longevity (Olshansky et al. 2005; Preston 2005). The smoking epidemic (Ezzati and Lopez 2003; Palloni, Novak, and Pinto 2012) and increases in obesity and metabolic syndrome (Aschner 2002; Hossain, Kawar, and El Nahas 2007; Kain, Vio, and Albala 2003; Pena and Bacallao 2000; Barcelo et al. 2003) are powerful enough to call into question the more optimistic scenarios.A second hurdle to further survival gains that is especially relevant in the LAC countries is that the members of birth cohorts who will reach age 60 after the year 2000 are unlike prior cohorts, and their past health and mortality experiences could derail future progress. The size of these cohorts is boosted by the fastest mortality decline ever recorded. This decline is attributable in large part to the reduction in exposure and the increased resistance to common infectious diseases, which led to a decrease in fatality rates from these diseases. …

Abstract: BACKGROUND Immigration from Africa to Europe has increased substantially in recent decades. The main goal of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of contemporary international migration processes by analyzing the occupational trajectories and occupational costs of Senegalese immigrants in three major European destination countries (France, Italy, and Spain). OBJECTIVE The first objective is to compare the occupational attainment of the Senegalese immigrants before and after migration to Europe, as well as to establish the determinants of the immigrants' occupational attainment and occupational mobility levels after migration. Another major goal is to estimate the occupational cost of migration from Senegal to Europe. The central question this study intends to answer is how much, in terms of occupational status, Senegalese immigrants renounce by migrating to Europe, in both the short and the long term. METHODOLOGY The data stem from the Senegalese sample of the MAFE dataset. The standard OLS techniques are used in the analysis of occupational attainment, while discrete-time multinomial logit is used in the section on occupational mobility. The principal techniques for the estimation of occupational cost of migration are random effects with Mundlak correction and nearest-neighbor matching. RESULTS There is a U-shaped pattern of occupational mobility among Senegalese immigrants in Europe: the average occupational status of this group drops just after arrival in Europe, and then slowly improves with the duration of stay. The multivariate analysis reveals that education acquired in Europe plays an especially important role in the successful participation of this immigrant group in the labor market. The results show that there is a statistically significant occupational cost of migration from Senegal to Europe, but that the cost decreases with the duration of stay in Europe.

Abstract: BACKGROUNDReallocation of economic resources between generations and genders has important con- sequences for economic growth and inequality. Unpaid work is a relevant component of intergenerational transfers, but is invisible to traditional accounts. Time use data can complement accounts of monetary transfers.OBJECTIVEThe main goal of this article is to provide estimates of life cycle profiles of consumption and production of unpaid activities. These profiles can be used to evaluate transfers of time by age and sex.METHODSWe use data from the Multinational Time Use Study (MTUS) to estimate profiles of time allocated to unpaid productive activities, by age, sex and household structure, for selected European countries. The unpaid working time is then distributed, with a statistical model, to those age groups that benefit from it, in order to estimate age-specific consumption profiles of time.RESULTSWe observe large transfers of time from females to males, and from adults to children. Life course trajectories are qualitatively similar across countries, but with significant variations in levels. Differences in profiles by household structure may be associated with incentives or disincentives for particular fertility choices in different social and institutional settings.CONCLUSIONSThis article quantifies household production and non-market transfers. It offers insight into the underestimation of the economic contribution of women.COMMENTSThis article provides some descriptive findings that could be incorporated with other re- search pursued by scholars in the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project to monetize the value of time and include it in standard transfer accounts.(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1. IntroductionA large quantity of goods and services are produced by household members for their own consumption, without involving market transactions. Despite the economic and so- cial importance of unpaid work, these productive activities are largely invisible to stan- dard national economic accounts. Consequently, traditional measures of intergenerational transfers typically ignore household production, and thus underestimate the overall value of goods and services produced over the life cycle, in particular, the economic contribu- tion of women.Recently, there have been some efforts to evaluate the extent of household production, and to integrate it into national accounts (e.g., Abraham and Mackie 2005; Anxo et al. 2007; Donehower and Mejia-Guevara 2012; Sambt and Malacic 2012). The increasing availability of harmonized time use surveys has made possible comparative analyses of non-market activities. The estimation of time transfers between generations and genders is intended to create a map of new and partially unexplored territories. The results of this line of research would complement traditional studies of intergenerational market-based transfers between generations and across countries.In this article, we estimate household production and consumption of unpaid work, by age and gender, in a comparative perspective. The profiles that we obtain and the patterns that we document are relevant to address questions such as: to what extent do women contribute more than men to household production? What is the age direction of intergenerational time transfers? How much time do people spend on providing care for their children or elderly parents? How much does the time investment in children vary across countries?2. Data and methodsWe use data from the Multinational Time Use Study (MTUS) to estimate age- and sex- specific profiles of time consumption and production. MTUS includes a collection of time use surveys that have been harmonized to allow for comparative analyses. Large samples of micro data, with information on the allocation of time to various activities of daily life, are available for several European countries. …

Abstract: Background: Household forecasts are important for public planning and for predicting consumer demand. Objective: The purpose of this paper is to compute probabilistic household forecasts for Finland and Denmark, taking advantage of unique housing register data covering the whole populations dating back to the 1980s. A major advantage is that we do not have to rely on small population samples, and we can get quite reliable estimates even for infrequent transitions. A further merit is having time series containing the population in different household positions (dependent child, living with a spouse, living in a consensual union, living alone, lone parent, living in other private household and institutional households) by age and sex. Methods: These series enable us to estimate the uncertainty in the future distribution of the population across household positions. Combining these uncertainty parameters with expected shares computed in a deterministic household forecast, we simulate 3000 sample paths for the household shares for each age and sex. These paths are then combined with 3000 simulations from a stochastic population forecast covering the same period to obtain the predicted number of households and persons in each household position by age and sex. Results: According to our forecasts, we expect a strong growth in the number of private households during a 30-year period, of 27% in Finland and 13% in Denmark. The number of households consisting of a married couple or a person who lives alone are the most certain, and single parents and other private households are the most uncertain.

Abstract: BACKGROUNDTheories of fertility collapse in the post-socialist era imply a decline in the moral primacy of traditional social institutions. Yet gender inequality actually increased in many countries, and there is a scarcity of empirical evidence for the role played by traditional social institutions in reproductive decision-making.OBJECTIVEWe investigate whether patriarchal institutions sustained the fertility levels in Albania. The geography of marriage and family enlargement is related to the importance of patriarchy in kinship organisation and in the public sphere. To account for this spatial relationship we test the evidence for different pathways in patriarchal influence on reproductive decision-making including social effects, socialisation in patriarchal ideals, and the promotion of male fertility.METHODWe reconstruct reproductive histories from the 2001 Census and use data on attitudes and fertility intentions from the Reproductive and Health Survey 2002. Multilevel logistic regressions on marriage and (the intention of) higher order births are used.RESULTSA majority of women endorsed patriarchal ideals and fertility transition was less advanced in more patriarchal municipalities. Patriarchal kinship organisation promoted early marriages and high fertility, which is shown to be achieved by social learning among peers and intergenerational social influences respectively, as well as by women's socialisation and a stopping behaviour in childbearing dominated by son-preference. Although gender inequality in the public sphere has also sustained the level of fertility and decreased the risk of marriage, it was not accounted for by these pathways of patriarchal influence.CONCLUSIONDespite Albania's gradual opening to the world in a period of economic and political crisis, traditional social institutions remain important for family behaviours.(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1. IntroductionA sharp decline in fertility during the post-socialist transition has been documented in Europe and the former Soviet Union with an analytical focus on the effects of economic crisis along with restructuring and ideational change (Billingsley 2010; Philipov and Dorbritz 2003; Sobotka 2003). Fertility limitation was initiated by the adverse material and social consequences of the crisis, and the onset of childbearing was further postponed when the economic and political situation stabilized. However, fertility trends in countries which have experienced social upheaval or war have highlighted the importance of social and cultural context for the way in which family behaviours respond. Young and stable ages at marriage, as well as fluctuating or increasing fertility, have indeed been attributed to a return to traditional values (Clifford, Falkingham, and Hinde 2009; Dommaraju and Agadjanian 2008; Lerch 2013a).This is congruent with the decline in gender equality observed in many countries (UNDP and LSE 2007). Women paid heavily for the costs of the transition as they were affected by lower social transfers and high levels of unemployment. In the Western Balkans, as elsewhere in the post-socialist era, women retreated en masse from the labour market and the political sphere (Brunnbauer 2004; UNIFEM 2006). But there is a scarcity of empirical evidence for the role played by traditional social institutions in reproductive decision-making. Most evidence is only indirect. In Moldova, a lack of female autonomy increased fertility intentions (Ryabov 2010) whereas in Bulgaria, crisis-driven constraints on the onset of childbearing were mediated by social capital and normative pressures to become a mother (Billari, Philipov, and Testa 2009; Philipov, Speder, and Billari 2006). According to Buhler's (2008) analysis of Bulgarian fertility, culturally-specific perceptions of the structural value of children for parents sustain the level of childbearing because it "may change their social networks in an advantageous way" (Buhler 2008: 572). …

Abstract: BACKGROUNDFamily structure and union dissolution has been one of the most thoroughly studied determinants of children's wellbeing worldwide. To date, however, few of these studies have examined sub-Saharan Africa, especially countries in West Africa where marital breakdowns are not uncommon.OBJECTIVEWe attempt to examine the effects of a mother's divorce and widowhood on children's risk of mortality under age 5 and on their probability of entering primary school.METHODSSurvival data analysis methods, specifically Kaplan-Meier and piecewise exponential models, are used for analysis, based on data come from the 2000 Migration and Urban Integration Survey of Burkina Faso.RESULTSCompared to those of intact families, children of divorced parents experience higher estimated mortality risks under age 5 and a lower probability of entering school, even after controlling for various other factors. This effect is large and significant during the first two years after the divorce. The death of the father is also found to greatly reduce a child's likelihood of entering school, but its effect on mo rtality is not significant.CONCLUSIONThe results indicate that the family context plays an important role in determining two important aspects of children?s welfare: their probabilities of dying before age 5 and of entering school.COMMENTSChildren of divorced parents or a deceased father are living in precarious situations and their specific needs should be taken into account in policies in order to improve the wellbeing of all children. Attention must be directed to the first two years following t he union dissolution.1. IntroductionStudies in many countries show that family structure plays a key role in the wellbeing of children. For instance, mortality has been found to be higher for children born out of wedlock (Bennett et al. 1994; Isaac and Feinberg 1982), those in polygamous households (Foster 2002)4, and those whose parents are divorced (Alam et al. 2001; Mauldon 1990; Bhuiya and Chowdhury 1997). Family structure may also affect other dimensions of child welfare. Across sub-Saharan Africa, female-headed households appear to be more successful at schooling their children than those headed by a man (Lloyd and Blanc 1996)5. Research has also indicated that orphans are less likely to attend school than are non-orphans (Ainsworth and Filmer 2002; Kobiane et al. 2005).Though family structure and union dissolution has been one of the most thoroughly studied determinants of children's wellbeing worldwide, only a few studies have analyzed this issue in sub-Saharan Africa. Whereas marital breakdowns are not uncommon in the region, especially in West Africa (Lesthaeghe et al. 1989), the effect of marital dissolution on children's welfare -their survival and schooling- has rarely been examined. Part of this gap in research reflects a lack of adequate data. In censuses and surveys, information on individuals' marital status is often provided only in relation to current unions, making it impossible to examine children's life histories in relation to changes in their mothers' marital status.This paper uses retrospective family life history data from a survey fielded in Burkina Faso to examine the effects of union dissolution on child survival and entry into school. Following Lloyd and Blanc (1996), we expect that children reared by married parents will have better health and educational outcomes (Lloyd and Blanc 1996). Parental union breakup is expected to be a traumatic event in a child's life and to reduce the care and resources s/he receives, due to the absence of a parent. We hypothesize that children whose parents are divorced or widowed will be at a greater risk of dying before age 5 and less likely to enter school than those living with both parents. Whilst children's overall wellbeing (including their survival and education) might theoretically increase the risk of parents' divorce, we assume that such effect is negligible in a context of large family sizes, polygamous unions and extended kin networks like Burkina Faso. …

Abstract: One of the most salient features of Latin American marriages over the last few decades is the stable timing of their union formation, despite educational expansion, the postponement of and retreat from marriage, and the increase in non-marital cohabitation. Objective: We examine why educational expansion did not influence the aggregated indicators of women's timing of union formation. Methods: We used recently harmonised international census microdata for eight Latin American countries from the 1970s to the 2000s. Results: The results from a logistic regression analysis show that this apparent stability was produced by contrasting shifts that occurred in various educational groups. In most countries the postponement effect that was expected from educational expansion was offset by earlier union formation (mostly through non-marital cohabitation) among the least educated (and formally largest) groups, whereas highly educated women showed no change.

Abstract: OBJECTIVEIn this paper, we study the determinants of internal migration in Italy from 1995 to 2006.METHODSTo conduct this investigation, we applied an augmented version of the gravity model to the migratory flows of Italians and resident foreigners. In addition to the classic determinants of migration-i.e., the sizes of populations and the distance between places-the model considered a possible autocorrelation of flows and a set of socio-economic and demographic explanatory variables that may influence migratory flows.RESULTSDifferent results were obtained for the two subpopulations. Among the Italians studied, both the economic conditions and the demographic features of regions were found to have operated as both push and pull determinants of migratory flows, although the demographic characteristics were shown to have affected migratory flows to a lesser extent. Among the resident foreigners studied, the demographic characteristics of the regions did not appear to have acted as push factors, but they were found to have had an effect as a pull determinant. While the economic conditions of the destination regions were shown to have been particularly important in attracting the resident foreigners, the economic conditions of the sending regions were not found to have had a clear-cut effect on the decision to leave.(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionOf the different types of mobility, international migration has most frequently been the focus of studies, mainly because of its high visibility (Bonifazi and Heins 2000). Recently, policy makers in European countries that have experienced massive migration flows, and who are worried about the risk of social destabilisation caused by the presence of an unexpectedly large number of immigrants, have given special attention to the issue.By contrast, scholars and policy makers have focused less consistently on internal mobility, looking at the issue only during periods when it became acute. In Italy, for example, the huge migration flows from the southern to the northern parts of the country following the Second World War were studied intensively while they were occurring. But after the flows started to decrease in the second half of the 1970s, internal mobility became a secondary social, political, and scientific issue.In recent years, however, scholars have again become interested in the internal movements of population, which are being recognised as "una delle dimensioni costitutive della societa e del suo funzionamento (one of the basic dimensions of society and its functioning)" (Arru and Ramella 2003: p. X). Moreover, they are being considered in conjunction with, rather than as separate from, international movements, as both kinds of migration flows are influenced by globalisation, which modifies socio- economic contexts and relations between different geographical areas at every territorial level (Bonifazi 1999). Thus, it is hardly surprising that internal migration is growing across the globe, including in some important emigration countries (e.g., China, India, and Pakistan), and that internal flows are higher than outflows (Deshingkar and Grimm 2005).A marked resumption of internal migration flows began in Italy in the mid-1990s (Livi Bacci 2010; Piras and Melis 2007). The number of changes of residence within Italy rose from around 1.1 million in 1995 to around 1.4 million in 2006, a level similar to that of more than 30 years previously.As internal migration flows have been recovering, Italy has been turning into a major destination country for international migration flows, first from the African continent, and more recently from Eastern Europe. By the start of 2010, the number of resident foreigners in Italy had reached 4.2 million, or 7% of the total population (ISTAT 2010). Mobility among these resident foreigners has contributed substantially to the internal mobility trend. …

Abstract: BACKGROUND Brazil has witnessed dramatic changes in its fertility patterns in recent decades. The decline to below-replacement fertility has been accompanied by increases in the proportion of children born to young mothers. Yet we know little about the well-being of children born to young mothers in Brazil. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS Using data from the 2006 Pesquisa Nacional de Demografia e Saude and a quasi-natural experimental approach, this study examines the implications of maternal age at first birth for the education of Brazilian adolescents. RESULTS We find that being born to a young mother is associated with educational disadvantages in adolescence, but that these disadvantages are attenuated once we account for mothers' selection into early childbearing. We also find that, in southern Brazil, adolescents born to young mothers have poorer educational outcomes compared with their peers born to older mothers, but that in northern Brazil no such disparities exist. CONCLUSIONS Adolescent educational disadvantages associated with being born to a young mother are not an artifact of selectivity, at least in southern Brazil. Regional variation in the effect of maternal age at first birth on adolescent education suggests the important role of the extended family and the father's presence as mechanisms through which disadvantages operate.

Abstract: BACKGROUND The evidence on the shape and trend of the relationship between (lifetime) income and old age mortality is scarce and mixed both for North American and European countries. Nationwide evidence for Italy does not exist yet. OBJECTIVE We investigate the shape and evolution of the association between lifetime income and old age mortality risk, referred to as the income-old age mortality gradient, for males in the 1980s and the 1990s. METHODS We use data drawn from an administrative pension archive and proxy individual lifetime income with pension income. We use non-standard Cox proportional hazard models, in which the positions and number of the knots in the spline function for income are determined by the data. RESULTS The income-old age mortality gradient is negative but weak across most of the income distribution. Its shape shows two kink points situated almost at the same percentiles of the income distribution during the 1980s and the 1990s. The widening of the gradient over time is largely explained by regional differences in mortality and income. CONCLUSIONS Our findings show that mortality risk decreases with income. Once regional differences are controlled for, the relative difference in mortality risk between high and low-income individuals in Italy is rather stable over time.

Abstract: BACKGROUNDIn their pioneering research, Becker, Landes, and Michael (1977) found that beyond age 30 there is a positive relationship between women's age at first marriage and marital instability. They interpreted this finding as a "poor-match effect" emerging when the biological clock begins to tick.OBJECTIVEOur objective was to ascertain with more recent data whether or not there is evidence of a poor match effect and if so, whether it is associated with higher marital instability.METHODSWe used data on non-Hispanic white women from the 2006-2010 National Surveys of Family Growth (NSFG) (N = 3,184).RESULTSWe found evidence of the existence of a poor-match effect: women who delay marriage disproportionately make unconventional matches, which are generally associated with high marital instability. We also found, however, that their unions are very solid. Both of these results were consistent with earlier findings for the 1995 and 2002-2003 NSFG cycles. In attempting to explain this puzzle, we proposed and tested competing hypotheses. We found that the destabilizing effects associated with indicators of unconventional matches are also present in marriages contracted late, but are dwarfed by the stabilizing influences associated with higher levels of education and older ages.CONCLUSIONSThis paper contributes to our understanding of the determinants of marital instability and the poor match effect by providing a new interpretation for the puzzle described above.COMMENTSOur findings have implications for analyses of changes over time in the extent of positive assortative mating in the marriage market, and for the extensive literature showing that heterogamy in traits that are complementary in the context of marriage is destabilizing - heterogamous marriages contracted at a late age are likely to be stable.1. IntroductionThe steady increase in age at first marriage has been one of the most salient demographic trends in the U.S. landscape in recent decades. The median age rose from 20 and 23 for women and men, respectively, in 1950-1960, to 26 and 28 in 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau 2010). Several factors contributed to this trend, including the development of oral contraception and the legalization of abortion, the growth in cohabitation, changes in household technology, and the decline in the male-female wage gap (Cherlin 2004; Goldin and Katz 2002; Greenwood and Guner 2008; Isen and Stevenson 2012). The focus of this paper is on the growing number of women in the U.S. who are entering marriage in their late twenties or thereafter: What are the characteristics of the unions that they form? Are such unions stable?Two main theoretical concepts are relevant to these questions. First, Becker (1974) developed the idea that in the optimal sorting, there is positive assortative mating (mating of likes) for traits that are complementary within the context of marriage (e.g., education, age, religion, race/ ethnicity) and negative assortative mating (mating of people who are dissimilar) for those that are substitutes (e.g., productivity characteristics). When such sorting does not occur along important dimensions, so that there is a mismatch and the resulting gains from marriage are low, the outcome is a high probability of divorce (Becker, Landes, and Michael 1977; Becker 1990). Expanding on these insights, Oppenheimer (1988) advanced the notion of a "maturity effect:" marriages contracted at an early age are at a higher risk of disruption because they are more likely to be based on mistaken expectations. At young ages individuals have inadequate self-knowledge and are uncertain about their own and their partners' potential trajectories. Moreover, some of their adult attributes have not yet emerged, making assortative mating by such traits impossible. The maturity effect postulates that postponement of entry into first marriage has a stabilizing influence for all these reasons. …