The invention relates to the field of ultra-short-term wind speed prediction, An ultra-short term wind speed prediction method based on optimal VMD and synchronous optimization is disclosed, Firstly,the optimal VMD based on the center frequency observation method and the minimization criterion of residual evaluation index is introduced to decompose the original wind speed time series into sub-modes with different center frequencies, then the binary backtracking search algorithm is used to filter the candidate input variables identified by partial autocorrelation function, At the same time, the parameters of the limit learning machine are optimized and improved by the real-time backtracking search algorithm, and the synchronous optimization of the candidate input variables and parameters of the limit learning machine model is realized. Finally, the prediction results of all sub-modes are summed and reconstructed, and the high-precision prediction of the wind speed time series is realized. The invention can realize the overall optimization of the model parameters and the input variables. It can reduce the influence of strong non-stationarity of wind speed time series on forecastingvalue and improve forecasting accuracy.

Ultra-short-term wind speed prediction method based on optimal VMD and synchronous optimization

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Ultra-short-term wind speed prediction method based on optimal VMD and synchronous optimization