This paper sets out a methodology for updating an economic appraisal model to ensure that it takes appropriate account of costs arising from greenhouse gas emissions. While the analysis is based on the appraisal model used in Ireland, it should be broadly applicable to circumstances in any EU Member State; indeed, many features will be relevant in any jurisdiction subject to a carbon tax or participating in a carbon permit trading system.

Incorporating GHG Emission Costs in the Economic Appraisal of Projects Supported by State Development Agencies

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we raise some issues related to the expected dimension of the carbon market. This analysis is based on a survey of model results on the implementation of the Kyoto goal with and without reliance on emissions trading. In particular, we consider both the emissions and the financial implications associated with different trading scenarios. Transfers related to international GHG trading might be equivalent to a 400% increase in foreign direct investment to countries with economies in transition. A closer look at the GHG reductions expected from the developing world also suggests that global models may be overly optimistic in their assessment of the contribution of flexibility mechanisms in meeting the Kyoto emission goals. OECD countries may need to rely more on domestic policies to reduce their emissions than what has so far been projected by global models. Second, we use a simple microeconomic model to test the potential contribution of typical power generation technologies in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism. Projects that are defined as additional in terms of the environment but already profitable can bring about significant results at a relatively low price of certified emission reductions. To assume that the contribution of the CDM will come close to what is projected by global models (both for prices and quantities) is to assume that such projects could be credited under the CDM.

Kyoto commitments: macro and micro insights on trading and the Clean Development Mechanism

This paper analyses the trends in energy consumption and CO2 emissions as a result of energy efficiency improvements in Swedish manufacturing industries between 1993 and 2008. Using data at the two-digit level, the performance of this sector is studied in terms of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, energy efficiency measured as energy intensity, value of production, fuel sources, energy prices and energy taxes. It was found that energy consumption, energy intensity and CO2 emission intensity, measured as production values, have decreased significantly in the Swedish manufacturing industries during the period studied. The results of the decomposition analysis show that output growth has not required higher energy consumption, leading to a reduction in both energy and CO2 emission intensities. The role of structural changes has been minor, and the trends of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions have been similar during the sample period. A stochastic frontier model was used to determine possible factors that may have influenced these trends. The results demonstrate that high energy prices, energy taxes, investments and electricity consumption have influenced the reduction of energy and CO2 emission intensities, indicating that Sweden has applied an adequate and effective energy policy. The study confirms that it is possible to achieve economic growth and sustainable development whilst also reducing the pressure on resources and energy consumption and promoting the shift towards a low-carbon economy.

Energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in Swedish manufacturing industries

Integrated assessment models were applied to analyze the side-benefits of structural changes in the energy systems of Finland and the EU to reduce acidity critical load exceedances in Finland. The acidification reduction potential of structural measures, induced by the need to restrict carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, was compared with international agreements limiting acidifying emissions. The impacts of the UN/ECE Gothenburg protocol and the European Commission’s proposal for a National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive were assessed together with domestic and bilateral policy scenarios. The study utilized point-source emission databases of Finland and the neighboring areas and a meso-scale deposition model together with the Europe-wide transfer matrices of the EMEP/MSC-W and European emission scenarios of IIASA. Further technical reduction measures in the adjacent large sulfur emission sources in Russia would reduce considerably deposition to nearby Finnish areas. Energy saving and shifts in the EU energy system towards less carbon-intensive fuels instead of further technical emission controls were found to have significant potential in limiting acidifying deposition. Implementation of the Kyoto protocol in the EU could reduce the Finnish areas at risk of acidification more than the Gothenburg protocol and the NEC Directive together.

Low-CO2 Energy Pathways versus Emission Control Policies in Acidification Reduction

From global to national scenarios : Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies

Since the decision of the Council of Ministers of the EU Member States (3 March 1997) specifying a decrease of greenhouse gas emissions by 15% in 2010 compared with the 1990, there has been a widespread study of the appropriate policy instruments and the associated costs. The task of meeting the emissions reduction targets should not be underestimated. Reducing CO2 emissions for the EU as a whole over the next 15 years would amount to no less than breaking the historical link between economic growth and energy use. Especially in the short term the problem of stranded costs is important. This paper attempts a synthesis of results coming from several new-generation models developed recently, and examines the economic and energy system implications of both short-term policies and measures for emission reduction as well as long-term technology options.

Economic and energy system implications of the European CO2 mitigation strategy for 2010: a model-based analysis

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Economic and energy system implications of the European CO2 mitigation strategy for 2010: a model-based analysis