[1] We update the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis of global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Satellite-observed night lights are used to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust temperature trends of urban and periurban stations for nonclimatic factors, verifying that urban effects on analyzed global change are small. Because the GISS analysis combines available sea surface temperature records with meteorological station measurements, we test alternative choices for the ocean data, showing that global temperature change is sensitive to estimated temperature change in polar regions where observations are limited. We use simple 12 month (and n × 12) running means to improve the information content in our temperature graphs. Contrary to a popular misconception, the rate of warming has not declined. Global temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior 2 decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations associated with the El Nino-La Nina cycle of tropical ocean temperature. Record high global 12 month running mean temperature for the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010.

/pdf/global-surface-temperature-change-2xwuck0p9j.pdf

Global surface temperature change

The optical properties of the light-absorbing, carbonaceous substance often called “soot,” “black carbon,” or “carbon black" have been the subject of some debate. These properties are necessary to model how aerosols affect climate, and our review is targeted specifically for that application. We recommend the term light-absorbing carbon to avoid conflict with operationally based definitions. Absorptive properties depend on molecular form, particularly the size of sp 2-bonded clusters. Freshly-generated particles should be represented as aggregates, and their absorption is like that of particles small relative to the wavelength. Previous compendia have yielded a wide range of values for both refractive indices and absorption cross section. The absorptive properties of light-absorbing carbon are not as variable as is commonly believed. Our tabulation suggests a mass-normalized absorption cross section of 7.5 ± 1.2 m2/g at 550 nm for uncoated particles. We recommend a narrow range of refractive indices for s...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02786820500421521

Light Absorption by Carbonaceous Particles: An Investigative Review

This paper reviews the many developments in estimates of the direct and indirect global annual mean radiative forcing due to present-day concentra- tions of anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols since Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (1996). The range of estimates of the global mean direct radiative forcing due to six distinct aerosol types is presented. Addition- ally, the indirect effect is split into two components corresponding to the radiative forcing due to modifica- tion of the radiative properties of clouds (cloud albedo effect) and the effects of anthropogenic aerosols upon the lifetime of clouds (cloud lifetime effect). The radia- tive forcing for anthropogenic sulphate aerosol ranges from 20.26 to 20.82 W m 22 . For fossil fuel black carbon the radiative forcing ranges from 10.16 W m 22 for an external mixture to 10.42 W m 22 for where the black carbon is modeled as internally mixed with sulphate aerosol. For fossil fuel organic carbon the two estimates of the likely weakest limit of the direct radiative forcing are 20.02 and 20.04 W m 22 . For biomass-burning sources of black carbon and organic carbon the com-

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/1999RG000078

Estimates of the direct and indirect radiative forcing due to tropospheric aerosols: A review

Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.

Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

[1] We use a global climate model to compare the effectiveness of many climate forcing agents for producing climate change. We find a substantial range in the “efficacy” of different forcings, where the efficacy is the global temperature response per unit forcing relative to the response to CO2 forcing. Anthropogenic CH4 has efficacy ∼110%, which increases to ∼145% when its indirect effects on stratospheric H2O and tropospheric O3 are included, yielding an effective climate forcing of ∼0.8 W/m2 for the period 1750–2000 and making CH4 the largest anthropogenic climate forcing other than CO2. Black carbon (BC) aerosols from biomass burning have a calculated efficacy ∼58%, while fossil fuel BC has an efficacy ∼78%. Accounting for forcing efficacies and for indirect effects via snow albedo and cloud changes, we find that fossil fuel soot, defined as BC + OC (organic carbon), has a net positive forcing while biomass burning BC + OC has a negative forcing. We show that replacement of the traditional instantaneous and adjusted forcings, Fi and Fa, with an easily computed alternative, Fs, yields a better predictor of climate change, i.e., its efficacies are closer to unity. Fs is inferred from flux and temperature changes in a fixed-ocean model run. There is remarkable congruence in the spatial distribution of climate change, normalized to the same forcing Fs, for most climate forcing agents, suggesting that the global forcing has more relevance to regional climate change than may have been anticipated. Increasing greenhouse gases intensify the Hadley circulation in our model, increasing rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Eastern United States, and East Asia, while intensifying dry conditions in the subtropics including the Southwest United States, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and an expanding Sahel. These features survive in model simulations that use all estimated forcings for the period 1880–2000. Responses to localized forcings, such as land use change and heavy regional concentrations of BC aerosols, include more specific regional characteristics. We suggest that anthropogenic tropospheric O3 and the BC snow albedo effect contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the Arctic. As a complement to a priori forcings, such as Fi, Fa, and Fs, we tabulate the a posteriori effective forcing, Fe, which is the product of the forcing and its efficacy. Fe requires calculation of the climate response and introduces greater model dependence, but once it is calculated for a given amount of a forcing agent it provides a good prediction of the response to other forcing amounts.

Efficacy of climate forcings

The global temperature rose by 0.2°C between the middle 19609s and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 19809s. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/213/4511/957.full.pdf

Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Increased abundances were measured for several trace atmospheric gases in the decade 1970-1980. The equilibrium greenhouse warming for the measured increments of CH4, chlorofluorocarbons and N2O is between 50% and 100% of the equilibrium warming for the measured increase of atmospheric CO2 during the same 10 years. The combined warming of CO2 and trace gases should exceed natural global temperature variability in the 1980's and cause the global mean temperature to rise above the maximum of the late 1930's.

Greenhouse effect of trace gases, 1970-1980

Response : Climatic Effects of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Climate Impact ofIncreasing Atmospheric CarbonDioxide

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