Showing papers on "Vulnerability published in 2015"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively and present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter Droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter Drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter Drought can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal Drought; and (6) mortality happens rapidly
Abstract: Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.
2,362 citations
International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources1, Sapienza University of Rome2, University of the Witwatersrand3, Microsoft4, Wildlife Conservation Society5, University of Queensland6, BirdLife International7, Norwegian Polar Institute8, James Cook University9, Conservation International10, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation11, Stony Brook University12, Chinese Academy of Sciences13, Durham University14, National University of Singapore15, University of Melbourne16, Stellenbosch University17, Zoological Society of London18, University College London19, NatureServe20
TL;DR: In this article, three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based) and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods are described.
Abstract: The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.
1,084 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, an integrated conceptual framework for the research and amelioration of energy deprivation in the home is proposed, based on the premise that all forms of energy and fuel poverty are underpinned by a common condition: the inability to attain a socially and materially necessitated level of domestic energy services.
Abstract: This paper offers an integrated conceptual framework for the research and amelioration of energy deprivation in the home. It starts from the premise that all forms of energy and fuel poverty – in developed and developing countries alike – are underpinned by a common condition: the inability to attain a socially and materially necessitated level of domestic energy services. We consider the functionings provided by energy demand in the residential domain in order to advance two claims: first, that domestic energy deprivation in its different guises and forms is fundamentally tied to the ineffective operation of the socio-technical pathways that allow for the fulfilment of household energy needs, and as such is best analyzed by understanding the constitution of different energy services (heating, lighting, etc.) in the home. Second, we emphasize the ability of vulnerability thinking to encapsulate the driving forces of domestic energy deprivation via a comprehensive analytical matrix. The paper identifies the main components and implications of energy service and vulnerability approaches as they relate to domestic energy deprivation across the world.
878 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide an overview of recent research on vulnerability and resilience of transport systems, and argue that more cross-disciplinary collaborations between authorities, operators and researchers would be desirable to transform this knowledge into practical strategies to strengthen the resilience of the transport system.
Abstract: The transport system is critical to the welfare of modern societies. This article provides an overview of recent research on vulnerability and resilience of transport systems. Definitions of vulnerability and resilience are formulated and discussed together with related concepts. In the increasing and extensive literature of transport vulnerability studies, two distinct traditions are identified. One tradition with roots in graph theory studies the vulnerability of transport networks based on their topological properties. The other tradition also represents the demand and supply side of the transport systems to allow for a more complete assessment of the consequences of disruptions or disasters for the users and society. The merits and drawbacks of the approaches are discussed. The concept of resilience offers a broader socio-technical perspective on the transport system’s capacity to maintain or quickly recover its function after a disruption or a disaster. The transport resilience literature is less abundant, especially concerning the post-disaster phases of response and recovery. The research on transport system vulnerability and resilience is now a mature field with a developed methodology and a large amount of research findings with large potential practical usefulness. The authors argue that more cross-disciplinary collaborations between authorities, operators and researchers would be desirable to transform this knowledge into practical strategies to strengthen the resilience of the transport system.
742 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a meta-analysis of 67 flood disaster case studies (1997-2013) was conducted to identify demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and health as the leading empirical drivers of social vulnerability to damaging flood events.
Abstract: A leading challenge in measuring social vulnerability to hazards is for output metrics to better reflect the context in which vulnerability occurs. Through a meta-analysis of 67 flood disaster case studies (1997–2013), this paper profiles the leading drivers of social vulnerability to floods. The results identify demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and health as the leading empirical drivers of social vulnerability to damaging flood events. However, risk perception and coping capacity also featured prominently in the case studies, yet these factors tend to be poorly reflected in many social vulnerability indicators. The influence of social vulnerability drivers varied considerably by disaster stage and national setting, highlighting the importance of context in understanding social vulnerability precursors, processes, and outcomes. To help tailor quantitative indicators of social vulnerability to flood contexts, the article concludes with recommendations concerning temporal context, measurability, and indicator interrelationships.
700 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a review of recent research on climate change impacts and management options for adaptation to climate change and to identify key themes for researchers and for forest managers was conducted, focusing on papers and reports published between 1945 and 2013, with the vast majority of papers published from 1986 to 2013.
Abstract: Adaptation of forest management to climate change requires an understanding of the effects of climate on forests, industries and communities; prediction of how these effects might change over time; and incorporation of this knowledge into management decisions. This requires multiple forms of knowledge and new approaches to forest management decisions. Partnerships that integrate researchers from multiple disciplines with forest managers and local actors can build a shared understanding of future challenges and facilitate improved decision making in the face of climate change.
Climate change presents significant potential risks to forests and challenges for forest managers. Adaptation to climate change involves monitoring and anticipating change and undertaking actions to avoid the negative consequences and to take advantage of potential benefits of those changes. This paper aimed to review recent research on climate change impacts and management options for adaptation to climate change and to identify key themes for researchers and for forest managers. The study is based on a review of literature on climate change impacts on forests and adaptation options for forest management identified in the Web of Science database, focusing on papers and reports published between 1945 and 2013. One thousand one hundred seventy-two papers were identified in the search, with the vast majority of papers published from 1986 to 2013. Seventy-six percent of papers involved assessment of climate change impacts or the sensitivity or vulnerability of forests to climate change and 11 % (130) considered adaptation. Important themes from the analysis included (i) predicting species and ecosystem responses to future climate, (ii) adaptation actions in forest management, (iii) new approaches and tools for decision making under uncertainty and stronger partnerships between researchers and practitioners and (iv) policy arrangements for adaptation in forest management. Research to support adaptation to climate change is still heavily focused on assessing impacts and vulnerability. However, more refined impact assessments are not necessarily leading to better management decisions. Multi-disciplinary research approaches are emerging that integrate traditional forest ecosystem sciences with social, economic and behavioural sciences to improve decision making. Implementing adaptation options is best achieved by building a shared understanding of future challenges among different institutions, agencies, forest owners and stakeholders. Research-policy-practice partnerships that recognise local management needs and indigenous knowledge and integrate these with climate and ecosystem science can facilitate improved decision making.
567 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify six challenges to energy vulnerability for the fuel poor: quality of dwelling fabric, energy costs and supply issues, stability of household income, tenancy relations, social relations within the household and outside, and ill health.
Abstract: Recent quantitative and qualitative evidence documents a dramatic reduction in average direct UK household energy consumption in the last decade. The ‘fuel poverty gap’ in the UK (average shortfall that fuel poor households experience in affording their energy bills) has also grown substantially in that period. Here we draw on the literature on vulnerability and on recent qualitative interviews with fuel poor households to characterise the experience of energy vulnerability in the UK. Using our qualitative data, we explore energy vulnerability from the point of view of our interviewees. In doing so we identify six challenges to energy vulnerability for the fuel poor: quality of dwelling fabric, energy costs and supply issues, stability of household income, tenancy relations, social relations within the household and outside, and ill health. In analysing these challenges we find that the energy vulnerable have limited agency to reduce their own vulnerability. Further, current UK policy relating to fuel poverty does not take full account of these challenges. Any attempt to address energy vulnerability coherently in the future must engage with structural forces (policies, markets, and recognition) in order to increase household agency for change.
415 citations
TL;DR: It is found that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation.
Abstract: The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whereas the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is still lacking. Due to this knowledge gap, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. We show for the first time (to our knowledge) that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We find that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation. The results also demonstrate that vulnerability levels in low- and high-income countries have been converging, due to a relatively strong trend of vulnerability reduction in developing countries. Finally, we present projections of flood losses and fatalities under 100 individual scenario and model combinations, and three possible global vulnerability scenarios. The projections emphasize that materialized flood risk largely results from human behavior and that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies.
403 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a review article based on both social and physical locations of groups is presented, where the authors discuss the difficulty of accessing certain social groups because of their social or physical location, vulnerability, or otherwise hidden nature.
Abstract: Certain social groups are often difficult for researchers to access because of their social or physical location, vulnerability, or otherwise hidden nature. This unique review article based on both...
378 citations
1 Jan 2015
TL;DR: In this article, the authors assess climate-related risks in the context of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and assess the risks arising from the interaction of the evolving exposure and vulnerability of human, socioeconomic, and biological systems with changing physical characteristics of the climate system.
Abstract: This chapter assesses climate-related risks in the context of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). {Box 19.1} Such risks arise from the interaction of the evolving exposure and vulnerability of human, socioeconomic, and biological systems with changing physical characteristics of the climate system. {19.2} Alternative development paths influence risk by changing the likelihood of climatic events and trends (through their effects on greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other emissions) and by altering vulnerability and exposure. {19.2.4, Figure 19-1, Box 19-2}.
336 citations
TL;DR: A critical stance is adopted on the relevance and interpretation of the recently emerging concepts of resilience and vulnerability in transportation studies and a systematic typology of various studies in this field is offered.
Abstract: This paper aims to adopt a critical stance on the relevance and interpretation of the recently emerging concepts of resilience and vulnerability in transportation studies. It makes a clear distinction between engineering and ecological interpretations of these concepts and offers a systematic typology of various studies in this field. A core element in the study is the linkage between the aforementioned concepts and connectivity/accessibility in transport networks. The methodological findings in the study are put in perspective by addressing also such concepts as robustness, reliability and friability of transport systems.
TL;DR: In this article, a review examines the vulnerabilities of biodiversity and society in the Atlantic forest to climate change, as well as impacts of land use and climate change in Brazil, particularly on recent biological evidence of strong synergies and feedback between them.
Abstract: Biodiversity hotspots are among some of the habitats most threatened by climate change, and the Brazilian Atlantic forest is no exception Only 116 % of the natural vegetation cover remains in an intensely fragmented state, which results in high vulnerability of this biome to climate change Since >60 % of the Brazilian people live within the Atlantic forest domain, societies both in rural and urban areas are also highly vulnerable to climate change This review examines the vulnerabilities of biodiversity and society in the Atlantic forest to climate change, as well as impacts of land use and climate change, particularly on recent biological evidence of strong synergies and feedback between them We then discuss the crucial role ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change might play in increasing the resilience of local society to future climate scenarios and provide some ongoing examples of good adaptive practices, especially related to ecosystem restoration and conservation incentive schemes such as payment for ecosystem services Finally, we list a set of arguments about why we trust that the Atlantic forest can turn from a “shrinking biodiversity hotspot” to a climate adaptation “hope spot” whereby society’s vulnerability to climate change is reduced by protecting and restoring nature and improving human life standards
TL;DR: This article measures community resilience and social vulnerability in counties across the United States and finds a correlation between high levels of vulnerability and low levels of resilience, indicating that the most vulnerable counties also tend to be the least resilient.
Abstract: This article contributes to the disaster literature by measuring and connecting two concepts that are highly related but whose relationship is rarely empirically evaluated: social vulnerability and community resilience. To do so, we measure community resilience and social vulnerability in counties across the United States and find a correlation between high levels of vulnerability and low levels of resilience, indicating that the most vulnerable counties also tend to be the least resilient. We also find regional differences in the distribution of community resilience and social vulnerability, with the West being particularly vulnerable while the Southeast is prone to low levels of resilience. By looking at both social vulnerability and community resilience, we are able to map communities’ social risks for harm from threats as well as their capacities for recovering and adapting in the aftermath of hazards. This provides a more complete portrait of the communities that might need the most assistance in emergency planning and response, as well as whether such interventions will need to be tailored toward reducing damage or finding the path to recovery.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate the current status of global marine fisheries using the frameworks of conflict, food security and vulnerability, and present some key ways to build these aspects of the fishery to reduce the potential environmental and social threats that increase the vulnerability of fisheries.
Abstract: We evaluate the current status of the global marine fisheries using the frameworks of conflict, food security and vulnerability. Existing trends suggest that there is likely to be greater food insecurity and fisheries conflicts due to issues such as: declining fishery resources; a North–South divide in investment; changing consumption patterns; increasing reliance on fishery resources for coastal communities; and inescapable poverty traps creating by low net resource productivity and few alternatives. Consequently, managing fisheries from a food security perspective will become increasingly necessary, and we therefore briefly review fisheries from the perspective of food security and evaluate it using a vulnerability framework. Specifically, we describe three key components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) for selected fisheries. This is followed by proposals to build the adaptive capacity of fisheries and recommendations to avoid future conflicts. Adaptive capacity attributes include assets, social flexibility and organization attributes, and learning. We present some key ways to build these aspects of the fishery to reduce the many potential environmental and social threats that increase the vulnerability of fisheries. Recommendations include fewer subsidies, reduced capital investment, precautionary management to minimize risks of ecosystem collapse, conservation of remaining resources, diversified portfolios of production and markets, and greater equity in contracts and distribution. Further, we recommend a contextual diagnostic and environmental justice framework to assess a range of options for fishery governance.
TL;DR: In this paper, conditions that underlie vulnerability and resilience possibilities for households and communities that face and respond to climate- and other changes, in nine East and West African countries, are examined.
Abstract: In this paper we examine conditions that underlie vulnerability and resilience possibilities for households and communities that face and respond to climate- and other changes, in nine East and West African countries. We base our analysis on a unique integrated qualitative and quantitative dataset composed of household surveys and village focus group studies carried out across a wide range of environments and agricultural systems. We identify human population growth, commercialization of the economy, and natural resource use policies, in addition to weather, as key drivers of change. We compare the agricultural and livelihood systems of male and female respondents, as well as their productive resources, organization and access to services. Women have less access than men to common property resources, as well as to cash to obtain goods or services. Women control less land than men, the land they control is often of poorer quality, and their tenure is insecure. Women engage in mutual insurance and risk-sharing networks, and benefit from non-agricultural services provided by social support institutions external to the village. Formally registered, public and private external organizations that foster agriculture and livestock production have tremendous anti-women biases, and tend to provide support primarily to men. Policies and strategies are needed to eliminate those prejudices so that men and women increase their resilience and manage well their changing environments.
TL;DR: This article explored the intersections and overlaps between climate change, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable development to explore the intersection and overlap between vulnerability and resilience, and proposed a vision of the future that ends tribalism and separation in order to achieve common goals for humanity.
Abstract: A seminal policy year for development and sustainability occurs in 2015 due to three parallel processes that seek long-term agreements for climate change, the Sustainable Development Goals, and disaster risk reduction. Little reason exists to separate them, since all three examine and aim to deal with many similar processes, including vulnerability and resilience. This article uses vulnerability and resilience to explore the intersections and overlaps amongst climate change, disaster risk reduction, and sustainability. Critiquing concepts such as “return to normal” and “double exposure” demonstrate how separating climate change from wider contexts is counterproductive. Climate change is one contributor to disaster risk and one creeping environmental change amongst many, and not necessarily the most prominent or fundamental contributor. Yet climate change has become politically important, yielding an opportunity to highlight and tackle the deep-rooted vulnerability processes that cause “multiple exposure” to multiple threats. To enhance resilience processes that deal with the challenges, a prudent place for climate change would be as a subset within disaster risk reduction. Climate change adaptation therefore becomes one of many processes within disaster risk reduction. In turn, disaster risk reduction should sit within development and sustainability to avoid isolation from topics wider than disaster risk. Integration of the topics in this way moves beyond expressions of vulnerability and resilience towards a vision of disaster risk reduction’s future that ends tribalism and separation in order to work together to achieve common goals for humanity.
TL;DR: This article explored the relationship between urbanization, economic development and socio-economic vulnerability on a global scale, and found that countries with rapid urbanization and economic transformation face significant challenges with respect to sensitivity and the lack of capacities, and these challenges tend to be greater the lower the income of the respective country.
Abstract: There is increasing scientific and political interest in the links between urbanization and human vulnerability to climate change. However, our literature review shows that the existing scholarship has largely focused on exposure resulting from urbanization, while other dimensions of urban vulnerability such as sensitivity or capacity to cope and adapt have been insufficiently represented or understood. Furthermore, most attention has been given to the negative effects of urbanization, while opportunities for vulnerability reduction have been underemphasized. Therefore, this paper takes a broader perspective to explore key relationships between urbanization, economic development and socio-economic vulnerability on a global scale. Using data with national resolution, we applied a clustering approach to identify ten country groups sharing similar patterns of urbanization and national income. We then explored associations between these country groups and selected indicators of exposure, sensitivity, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity drawing upon data from the World Risk Index. Our findings suggest that countries with rapid urbanization and economic transformation face significant challenges with respect to sensitivity and the lack of capacities. Additionally, these challenges tend to be greater the lower the income of the respective country. Yet, at the same time, urbanization can be a main driver for enhancing response capacity. The analysis suggests that urbanization can, hence, have nuanced effects on overall vulnerability. We argue that climate change science needs to be more balanced in terms of acknowledging and examining the different possible pathways of vulnerability effects related to urbanization. The country group analysis can provide a first entry point.
Australian Institute of Marine Science1, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority2, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources3, The Nature Conservancy4, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration5, James Cook University6, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory7, University of Queensland8, Wildlife Conservation Society9, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation10, Centre national de la recherche scientifique11, Stockholm Resilience Centre12, Australian Research Council13, Nova Southeastern University14, United Nations Environment Programme15, University of Florida16
TL;DR: It is presented the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability up to a point and an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability is proposed.
Abstract: Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services.
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TL;DR: Female vulnerability to suicidal behavior is likely to be due to gender related vulnerability to psychopathology and to psychosocial stressors, so suicide prevention programmes should incorporate woman specific strategies.
Abstract: Suicide is a global public health problem. Asia accounts for 60% of the world's suicides, so at least 60 million people are affected by suicide or attempted suicide in Asia each year. The burden of female suicidal behavior, in terms of total burden of morbidity and mortality combined, is more in women than in men. Women's greater vulnerability to suicidal behavior is likely to be due to gender related vulnerability to psychopathology and to psychosocial stressors. Suicide prevention programmes should incorporate woman specific strategies. More research on suicidal behavior in women particularly in developing countries is needed.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the interaction of migration, vulnerability to poverty, and welfare of rural households in three provinces in Central Vietnam and found that migration, especially migration for employment, is a livelihood support strategy for households exposed to agricultural and economic shocks.
TL;DR: In this paper, a ranking system for vulnerability assessment of mangrove systems integrating biotic and abiotic factors along with human management components, using validated methods previously developed for other research questions, was developed.
Abstract: Climate change, particularly its associated sea level rise, is major threat to mangrove coastal areas, and it is essential to develop ways to reduce vulnerability through strategic management planning. Vulnerability has three dimensions of exposure to stresses, associated sensitivity, and related adaptive capacity, and ways to measure components of each were trialled at sites in Africa and the South Pacific to develop an analysis procedure based on ranking. The approaches of the ranking system for vulnerability assessment of mangrove systems integrate biotic and abiotic factors along with human management components, using validated methods previously developed for other research questions. These include determining mangrove forest health, adjacent ecosystem resilience, the extent and effects of human impacts, and the environmental conditions of different mangrove settings. Results of the vulnerability assessment ranking using up to 20 measurements found all sites to have some components of vulnerability. Douala Estuary, Cameroon showed the highest vulnerability, owing to low tidal range, impacts from non-climate stressors, and evidence of moderate seaward edge retreat. Tikina Wai, Fiji showed inherent vulnerability owing to location on a subsiding coastline with a low tidal range, but this was offset by strong local community management capacity. Rufiji Delta, Tanzania showed inherent resilience owing to location on an uplifting coastline with a macrotidal range, but showed vulnerability from human impacts and lower local community management capacity. The most critical components to the vulnerability assessment were found to be exposure components of relative sea level trends and sediment supply, and sensitivity components of forest health, recent spatial changes and net accretion rates. The results provide a baseline against which to establish long-term ongoing monitoring, allowing continued assessment of the complex dynamics of climate change impacts, and providing an information base for strategic management decisions.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the first comprehensive set of phosphorus vulnerability and security indicators at global and national scales, which can be used as tools to facilitate accountability, implementation, evaluation and communication for global sustainability challenges.
Abstract: Phosphorus underpins global food systems by ensuring soil fertility, farmer livelihoods, agricultural productivity and global food security. Yet there is a lack of research and effective governance at global or national scales designed to ensure the future availability and accessibility of this global resource. The world’s main source of phosphorus, phosphate rock, is a finite resource that is becoming increasingly scarce, expensive and subject to geopolitical tensions as one country, Morocco, controls three-quarters of the world’s remaining high-grade reserves. Given the criticality of phosphorus and the vulnerability of the world’s food systems to phosphorus scarcity, there is a strong need to stimulate appropriate sustainable phosphorus practices and technologies, and simultaneously, to initiate effective international governance mechanisms, including policy/research coordination and accountability. Sustainability indicators are increasingly being used as tools to facilitate accountability, implementation, evaluation and communication for global sustainability challenges. This paper presents the first comprehensive set of phosphorus vulnerability and security indicators at global and national scales. Global indicators include: phosphate price, market concentration and supply risk, relative physical phosphorus scarcity and eutrophication potential. National indicators include: farmer phosphorus vulnerability, national phosphorus vulnerability, national phosphorus equity and soil phosphorus legacy. Monitoring and tracking such indicators at the national and global levels can ultimately provide evidence of key phosphorus vulnerabilities or ‘hotspots’ in the food system, support effective phosphorus governance to stimulate targeted and effective action, raise awareness of this food security challenge, and evaluate the effectiveness and performance of global or national sustainable phosphorus projects.
TL;DR: Using data from a longitudinal study of 340 healthy young adults, it is demonstrated that individual differences in threat-related amygdala reactivity predict psychological vulnerability to life stress occurring as much as 1 to 4 years later.
TL;DR: A review of the existing evidence and practice indicates the need for more systematic, reliable, and ethically conducted monitoring and learning on this topic to build a more solid evidence base, while also refining key principles for improved policy and programming.
Abstract: The global community of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) researchers, practitioners and policy makers has to date inadequately addressed the challenge of vulnerability to violence in relation to access to water and sanitation in development and humanitarian emergency contexts. Reasons may include the lack of valid and reliable documentation of girls’, boys’, women’s, and men’s experiences of violence while accessing water and/or sanitation facilities; the sensitivity of the topic, with secrecy around individuals’ experiences of violence and their sanitation needs further hindering the collection of reliable data; the complexity of understanding the gendered dimensions of vulnerability to violence, with girls and women at least anecdotally reported to be more likely to experience violence in relation to WASH; and the likelihood that many WASH practitioners lack training in gender and violence, affecting their ability to deliver adequate programming and evaluation. In an effort to encourage increased ac...
TL;DR: In this paper, the relative importance of climate change in the context of multiple stressors in semi-arid Ghana was investigated, and the findings empirically demonstrate that many farmers do not worry about climate change, even in situations where local perceptions and the climate data show a clear pattern of variability.
Abstract: This paper investigates the relative importance of climate change in the context of multiple stressors in semi-arid Ghana. It draws upon ethnographic research in two agrarian villages, and integrates theories from resilience, vulnerability and feminist political ecology. The findings empirically demonstrate that many farmers do not worry about climate change, even in situations where local perceptions and the climate data show a clear pattern of variability. Additionally, the paper provides evidence of a ‘gendered double exposure,’ whereby patriarchy and local culture shape how different social groups are impacted by climate change. Overall, the emerging findings suggest that an overemphasis on scenario-based climate change impacts may detract attention from equally important non-climatic factors that loom large in people's lives. The article's central argument is not meant to downplay the ongoing impacts of climate change in Africa. It rather suggests that climate change should be addressed as one problem among many socio-ecological challenges facing smallholder farmers.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide sound evidence to inform decision-making that considers the needs of the most vulnerable to climate change will help both adaptation and development efforts, particularly in climate change hot spots, where strong climate signal and high concentrations of vulnerable people are present.
Abstract: Providing sound evidence to inform decision-making that considers the needs of the most vulnerable to climate change will help both adaptation and development efforts. Such evidence is particularly important in climate change “hot spots”, where strong climate signal and high concentrations of vulnerable people are present. These hot spots include semiarid regions and deltas of Africa and Asia, and glacier- and snowpack-dependent river basins of South Asia. In advance of a major research effort focusing on these three hot spots, studies were commissioned to identify and characterize the current status of knowledge in each on biophysical impacts, social vulnerability, and adaptation policy and practice. The resulting seven papers are brought together in this special edition, with this editorial introduction providing background on these hot spots, the program through which the studies were commissioned, and an overview of the papers that follow.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the role of vulnerability in determining today's and future disaster loss risk, and provide context by way of a modeling case study of observed and projected losses from riverine flooding in Bangladesh.
Abstract: The recent IPCC-SREX report demonstrated for the first time comprehensively that anthropogenic climate change is modifying weather and climate extremes. The report also documents, what has been long known, that losses from natural disasters, including those linked to weather, have increased strongly over the last decades. Responding to the debate regarding a contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the increased burden from weather-related disasters, the IPCC-SREX finds that such a link cannot be made today, and identifies the key driver behind increases in losses as exposure changes in terms of rising population and capital at risk. Yet, in the presence of many uncertainties and omissions involved in studying trends in losses, the authors of the IPCC report did not exclude a role for climate change. In particular, one key uncertainty identified has been the incomplete consideration of economic vulnerability to natural hazards, defined as the propensity to incur losses in a hazardous event. Focussing on the role of vulnerability in determining today’s and future disaster loss risk, we critically review the literature on loss trends and projections, and provide context by way of a modeling case study of observed and projected losses from riverine flooding in Bangladesh. We find that research has almost exclusively focused on normalizing losses for changes in exposure, yet not for vulnerability, which appears a major gap given the dynamic nature of vulnerability, and documented evidence regarding decreases in vulnerability in many regions. One such region is South Asia, and of particular interest to us is Bangladesh, a country heavily at-risk, but also with substantial expertise regarding risk management, where we are able to show that economic vulnerability has been substantially reduced over the last decades. In order to understand future flood risk in Bangladesh, we project risk based on past reductions in vulnerability and compare it to a case where vulnerability is not considered explicitly and kept static. In the dynamic scenario, risk would still increase in absolute terms, yet at much smaller increments compared to a static vulnerability case. Thus, a key finding of our analysis is that, absent dynamic quantifications of vulnerability, studies on future losses under climatic change may overestimate future losses. Furthermore, the analysis also suggests that there are substantial benefits to gain by supporting vulnerability-reducing measures in many regions. Finally, we emphasize the need for further taking a risk-based perspective on modelling climate impacts in order to provide robust information on the costs and impacts from extremes in a changing climate.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple stressors through a case study of Funafuti, Tuvalu, and identified where climate fits in the suite of forces (socioeconomic, cultural, environmental) already affecting livelihoods.
Abstract: This paper examines vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple stressors through a case study of Funafuti, Tuvalu. Climate change research in Pacific Islands has largely focused on biophysical changes such as sea-level rise. Less is known about how livelihoods are affected and what adaptation options are realistic. The research employs a vulnerability framework to identify where climate fits in the suite of forces (socioeconomic, cultural, environmental) already affecting livelihoods. The participatory approach includes semi-structured interviews with community members, initially without reference to climate. Key areas of concern to people in Funafuti are economic, food, water and overcrowding, rather than climate change. Vulnerability to changing climatic conditions is evident in water, land, and food through the interaction of non-climatic forces (e.g. overcrowding, urbanization, few economic opportunities, changing land use, and shifting cultural norms), and climatic forces (e.g. dry spells, extreme sea-levels, strong winds and changing marine conditions). Adaptations, beyond bearing the effects and sharing the burden, are mainly reactive and short-term. Future changes in climate will be experienced in the context of these multiple, interacting forces, and adaptation initiatives will need to be designed in light of these.
TL;DR: Dupas et al. as discussed by the authors investigated whether increasing access to financial services in rural Africa is enough to solve the problem of high return investments of many types and found that without a safe place to keep an emergency cash buffer, vulnerability to shocks might be exacerbated.
Abstract: Most people in rural Africa do not have bank accounts Without a safe place to save up money, it may be very difficult for people to take advantage of high-return investments of many types Likewise, without a safe place to keep an emergency cash buffer, vulnerability to shocks might be exacerbated Recognising this, policymakers and international aid organisations have begun to devote attention to expanding access to financial services in developing countries, especially in rural areas where access continues to be extremely limited However, in Dupas et al (2012) we investigate whether increasing access is enough
12 Oct 2015
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a new approach to assess risk and vulnerability towards natural hazards on country scale and allow the comparison of countries at global scale using the concept of the WorldRiskIndex.
Abstract: The demand for information and understanding on natural hazard related risk on a global scale has grown in recent years. Such information is crucial for stakeholders who are working in the field of disaster risk reduction, spatial planning and (re-)insurance. This article provides a new approach to assess risk and vulnerability towards natural hazards on country scale and allows the comparison of countries at global scale. The concept of the WorldRiskIndex focuses on the understanding of risk which is defined as the interaction of physical hazards and the vulnerability of exposed elements. The exposure to natural hazards was assessed by using five indicators that describe the expsoure of people towards earthquakes, cyclones, floods, droughts and sea level rise. Whereas vulnerability consists of susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity was calculated on the basis of 23 indicators which comprise social, economic and environmental conditions of a society. The method and the results of the WorldRiskIndex were validated by using statistical analysis such as reliability, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results of the WorldRiskIndex were mapped and classified by means of a GIS system to show different patterns of exposure, vulnerability and risk on global scale. The global perspective of risk clearly shows that the vulnerability of a society or a country is not the same as exposure to natural hazards.