Abstract: Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human–environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human–environment systems is presented.

Abstract: In recent years the issue of supply chain risk has been pushed to the fore, initially by fears related to possible disruptions from the much publicised “millennium bug”. Y2K passed seemingly without incident, though the widespread disruptions caused by fuel protests and then Foot and Mouth Disease in the UK, and by terrorist attacks on the USA have underlined the vulnerability of modern supply chains. Despite increasing awareness among practitioners, the concepts of supply chain vulnerability and its managerial counterpart supply chain risk management are still in their infancy. This paper seeks to identify an agenda for future research and to that end the authors go on to clarify the concept of supply chain risk management and to provide a working definition. The existing literature on supply chain vulnerability and risk management is reviewed and compared with findings from exploratory interviews undertaken to discover practitioners' perceptions of supply chain risk and current supply chain risk managem...

Abstract: When disaster strikes in cities the effects can be catastrophic compared to other environments. But what factors actually determine the vulnerability or resilience of cities? The Vulnerability of Cities fills a vital gap in disaster studies by examining the too-often overlooked impact of disasters on cities, the conditions leading to high losses from urban disasters and why some households and communities withstand disaster more effectively than others. Mark Pelling takes a fresh look at the literature on disasters and urbanization in light of recent catastrophes. He presents three detailed studies of cities in the global South, drawn from countries with contrasting political and developmental contexts: Bridgetown, Barbados - a liberal democracy; Georgetown, Guyana - a post socialist-state; and Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic - an authoritarian state in democratic transition. This book demonstrates that strengthening local capacity - through appropriate housing, disaster-preparedness, infrastructure and livelihoods - is crucial to improving civic resilience to disasters. Equally important are strong partnerships between local community-based organizations, external non-governmental and governmental organizations, public and private sectors and between city and national government. The author highlights and discusses these best practices for handling urban disasters. With rapid urbanization across the globe, this book is a must-read for professionals, policy-makers, students and researchers in disaster management, urban development and planning, transport planning, architecture, social studies and earth sciences.

Abstract: 1. The Culture of Emotionalism 2. The Politics of Emotion 3. Targeting Privacy and Informal Relations 4. How Did We Get There? 5. The Diminished Self 6. The Self at Risk 7. Fragile Identity - Hooked on Self-Esteem 8. Conferring Recognition - The Quest for Identity 9. Therapeutic Claims Making and the Demand for a Diagnosis 10. Final Thoughts - Does It Matter?

Abstract: The vulnerability framework of the Research and Assessment Sys- tems for Sustainability Program explicitly recognizes the coupled human-environment system and accounts for interactions in the coupling affecting the system's responses to hazards and its vulner- ability. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the vulnerability framework through three case studies: the tropical southern Yucatan , the arid Yaqui Valley of northwest Mexico, and the pan-Arctic. Together, these examples illustrate the role of external forces in reshaping the systems in question and their vulnerability to environ- mental hazards, as well as the different capacities of stakeholders, based on their access to social and biophysical capital, to respond to the changes and hazards. The framework proves useful in directing attention to the interacting parts of the coupled system and helps identify gaps in information and understanding relevant to reducing vulnerability in the systems as a whole.

Abstract: We propose measuring vulnerability of selected outcome variables of concern (e.g. agricultural yield) to identified stressors (e.g. climate change) as a function of the state of the variables of concern relative to a threshold of damage, the sensitivity of the variables to the stressors, and the magnitude and frequency of the stressors to which the system is exposed. In addition, we provide a framework for assessing the extent adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerable conditions. We illustrate the utility of this approach by evaluating the vulnerability of wheat yields to climate change and market fluctuations in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico.

Abstract: The events of September 11th shocked the nation and painfully illustrated our vulnerability to international terrorist attacks. Despite some of the most sophisticated models, monitoring systems, and science in the world, officials were unable to anticipate and predict these cascading events. The collective scientific ability to geographically represent environmental threats, map exposures, and map consequences is relatively straightforward when the threats are recognized. But what happens when we cannot recognize threats or some of their unintended consequences? This article examines the twin issues of the inadequacies in our current modes of understanding (the vulnerability of science) and the need for more integrative approaches in understanding and responding to environmental hazards (vulnerability science).

Abstract: Suicide and premature death due to coronary heart disease, violence, accidents, drug or alcohol abuse are strikingly male phenomena, particularly in the young and middle-aged groups. Rates of offending behaviour, conduct disorders, suicide and depression are even rising, and give evidence to a high gender-related vulnerability of young men. In explaining this vulnerability, the gender perspective offers an analytical tool to integrate structural and cultural factors. It is shown that traditional masculinity is a key risk factor for male vulnerability promoting maladaptive coping strategies such as emotional unexpressiveness, reluctance to seek help, or alcohol abuse. This basic male disposition is shown to increase psychosocial stress due to different societal conditions: to changes in male gender-role, to postmodern individualism and to rapid social change in Eastern Europe and Russia. Relying on empirical data and theoretical explanations, a gender model of male vulnerability is proposed. It is concluded that the gender gap in suicide and premature death can most likely be explained by perceived reduction in social role opportunities leading to social exclusion.

Abstract: Recent scientific outputs suggest that climate change is likely to cause shifts in the global pattern and intensity of flood events, in some regions increasing the exposure of populations to severe flooding. Potential future risks underline the importance of research and intervention work aimed at strengthening local capacity to cope with flooding, especially for the poor in developing countries. This paper reviews recent theoretical and applied research on vulnerability and adaptive capacity of households and communities in flood-prone areas. It traces the growing tendency for interventions to prioritize action at the local scale and suggests directions for further research to deepen understanding of actual and potential coping strategies.

Abstract: From Adaptation to Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability Reduction (B Smit & O Pilifosova) Social Aspects of Adaptive Capacity (W N Adger) Adaptive Capacity: What Does It Mean in the Context of Natural Hazards? (J Handmer) Lessons from Famine Early Warning and Food Security for Understanding Adaptation to Climate Change: Toward a Vulnerability/Adaptation Science? (T E Downing) Assessing Vulnerability in the Context of Changing Socioeconomic Conditions: A Study of Egypt (G Yohe et al.) Do We Have the Adaptive Capacity to Develop and Use the Adaptive Capacity to Adapt? (I Burton) and other papers.

Abstract: In historic city centers the mitigation of seismic risk is dependent on the possibility of implementing strengthening programs. Given the cultural and economic value attached to the historic structures, however, interventions should be tailored to suit aesthetic and structural requirements of each building type, and provide sufficient reliability of performance in future earthquakes. A simple analytical model is developed to calculate load factors associated with various collapse mechanisms of wall assemblies, and vulnerability functions are derived. An application shows the capability of the procedure to quantify reduction in vulnerability associated with strengthening implementations for different typologies. [DOI: 10.1193/1.1599896]

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the meaning of 'chronic poverty,' and identifies frameworks for analysing it, as understood by the Chronic Poverty Research Centre (CPRC) during the initial stages of research. After an introduction to the CPRC, the second section briefly reviews the major frameworks for conceptualising, defining, explaining, and measuring poverty in its broader sense, and relates these to the study of chronic poverty. It is suggested that research undertaken by CPRC should focus on poverty in its broadest, multi-dimensional sense, and that those who are chronically poor are likely to be poor in several ways, not only in terms of income. At the same time, the analysis of money-metric and other quantitative indicators are the primary means by which study of chronic poverty is presently undertaken, and will continue to have an important role to play in research. Our understanding of chronic poverty is also likely to draw upon notions of both absolute and relative poverty, vulnerability, social exclusion, and capabilities and freedoms, as well as upon subjective assessments by the poor themselves. In the third section, the characteristics of chronic poverty are presented. Long duration is identified as both necessary and sufficient for poverty to be considered chronic. It is hypothesised that chronic poverty will also often be multi-dimensional and severe. It is proposed that a five-tiered categorisation of the poor be adopted - always poor, usually poor, churning poor, occasionally poor and never poor - and that transitions between different levels over time be closely monitored. It is suggested that the tightest possible definition of chronic poverty would be intergenerationally transmitted (IGT) poverty, which is likely to be relatively intractable and therefore likely to escape current poverty reduction efforts. In this way, IGT poverty is both a characteristic and cause of chronic poverty. The subsection on IGT poverty draws upon the literature surrounding the intergenerational transfer of different capitals. This is followed by an analysis of the ways in which severity and multi-dimensionality are often characteristics of chronic poverty, and a brief review of the relevance of the World Bank's Voices of the Poor studies to an understanding of chronic poverty. The final two subsections argue that the chronically poor are a heterogeneous group. There are several sets of people who are particularly susceptible to chronic poverty, and that are likely to experience multiple and overlapping vulnerabilities. These groups include those experiencing deprivation because of their stage in the life cycle, those discriminated against because of their social position in the community or household, those with health problems and impairments, and people living in remote rural areas, urban ghettos and regions where prolonged violent conflict and insecurity have occurred. In the fourth section, the causes of chronic poverty at different levels of analysis are explored, and analytical frameworks for their understanding are laid down - quantitative panel data analysis; livelihoods analysis; freedoms; social and political exclusion; and policy analysis frameworks, which include consideration of avoiding the negative impacts of development which help to extend and deepen poverty for the poor. The final two sections bring together the preceding work and discuss the implications of our initial understanding of chronic poverty for future research.

Abstract: Assessing urban vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes can be regarded as an ill-structured problem (i.e. a problem for which there is no unique, identifiable, objectively optimal solution). A review of the literature indicates a number of contrasting definitions of what vulnerability means, as well as numerous conflicting perspectives on what should or should not be included within the broad assessment of vulnerability in cities. This paper reports on the findings from a project in which a GIS methodology has been developed to assess urban vulnerability through a spatial analytical procedure. First, we highlight the deficiencies of current GIS approaches to urban vulnerability analysis and discuss the ill-structured nature of the vulnerability problem. We then propose a working definition for vulnerability assessment in which vulnerability is thought of as a spatial decision problem under the conditions of uncertainty. Next, we present a methodology to incorporate this definition into a GIS...

Abstract: Public policies to mitigate the impacts of extreme events such as hurricanes or terrorist attacks will differ depending on whether they focus on reducing risk or reducing vulnerability. Here we present and defend six assertions aimed at exploring the benefits of vulnerability-based policies. (1) Risk-based approaches to covering the costs of extreme events do not depend for their success on reduction of vulnerability. (2) Risk-based approaches to preparing for extreme events are focused on acquiring accurate probabilistic information about the events themselves. (3) Understanding and reducing vulnerability does not demand accurate predictions of the incidence of extreme events. (4) Extreme events are created by context. (5) It is politically difficult to justify vulnerability reduction on economic grounds. (6) Vulnerability reduction is a human rights issue; risk reduction is not.

Abstract: The increasing recognition that there are considerable flows into and out of poverty (Baulch and Hoddinott, 2000) has focused interest in household vulnerability as the basis for a social protection strategy. However, the design and implementation of these schemes is hampered by uncertainty over the meaning of this concept. Vulnerability—like risk and love—means different things to different people; there are many definitions of vulnerability and, seemingly, no consensus on its definition or measurement. One might be forgiven for thinking that the discourse on vulnerability is too confused to support initiatives in the areas of policy and interventions.

Abstract: Disaster impacts are increasing in severity, and affect communities far beyond the areas of geographic impact as regions are linked in new ways. While industrialized countries may register higher economic losses following a disaster, there have frequently systems in place to respond to the event to minimize loss life. Property is often covered by insurance. In developing countries, by contrast, disasters can cause major setbacks to economic and social development, inflict massive casualties, and cause the diversion of funds from development, to emergency relief and recovery. The papers in this volume were prepared as background material for the Conference on the Future of Disaster Risk : Building Safer Cities, and deal, in Part I, with subjects from vulnerability to disasters, risks, and associated costs, to the impact of globalization and the interdependent disaster risks, i.e., the need for public-private partnerships. Part II focuses on the environment, climate change, and adaptation, highlighting the resilience of coastal mega-cities to weather-related hazards, as well as flood management and vulnerability in different parts of the world. Part III refers to the social vulnerability aspects resulting from disaster impacts, through various case studies, and Part IV addresses how to protect critical infrastructure from disaster impacts.

Abstract: The present invention provides systems and methods for risk detection and analysis in a computer network. Computerized, automated systems and methods can be provided. Raw vulnerability information and network information can be utilized in determining actual vulnerability information associated with network nodes. Methods are provided in which computer networks are modeled, and the models utilized in performing attack simulations and determining risks associated with vulnerabilities. Risks can be evaluated and prioritized, and fix information can be provided.

Abstract: In late October 1998, the remnants of Hurricane Mitch stalled over Honduras and Nicaragua, killing more than 10,000 people and causing as much as $8.5 billion in damage. While Central America and the Caribbean have a history of natural disasters, the fatalities and destruction caused by Mitch were the greatest in at least several decades, prompting many questions including: What accounts for the extent of these losses? Is Mitch a harbinger of future disasters in the region? and What might be done in response? This paper seeks to shed light on these questions by examining the historical and geographic context of hurricane vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper examines trends in economic and other societal factors that increase vulnerability to hurricanes in Central America and the Caribbean and includes a case study of normalized hurricane losses in Cuba made possible by newly collected damage data published herein. The paper places its findings into the context of policies related to climate change and natural hazards. The data and analysis in this paper suggest that the impacts of Hurricane Mitch were not anomalous when compared with a normalized record of past losses. Interrelated human-caused factors such as rapidly increasing populations, widespread poverty, deforestation and urbanization are shown to increase vulnerability to natural disasters such as Hurricane Mitch.

Abstract: This paper reports on a grounded theory interview-based study with 13 family members aged 28-80 years caring for terminally ill people at home (with a life expectancy of 3 months or less) in the Netherlands. The project was approved by the ethics committee of the Maastricht University Hospital. The aim of this study was to explore the experiences of family caregivers, their needs for home care, and which health services they receive. Data were analysed using the constant comparative method. 'Vulnerability' was identified as the core category. Caring for a terminally ill person at home requires continuous balancing between care burden and capacity to cope. Whether or not the carer will succeed in keeping in optimum balance is dependent on a number of factors impinging on the caregiver's vulnerability. Care burden, restricted activities, fear, insecurity, loneliness, facing death, lack of emotional, practical and information-related support were identified from the data as factors having the potential to increase the caregiver's vulnerability, and may be risk factors for fatigue and burnout. Continuing previous activities, hope, keeping control, satisfaction and good support are factors which may decrease the caregiver's vulnerability, and may protect against fatigue and burnout. The experiences of the caregivers in our study showed that the support from informal and professional caregivers was not sufficient. Education and practical tools may make professionals more sensitive for the vulnerable position of family caregivers, even when these caregivers do not show their vulnerability.

Abstract: This paper revisits the relationship between aid and growth, adding new assumptions to the standard Burnside-Dollar model, where aid effectiveness depends only on policy: 1) policy itself depends on aid, which involves a dynamic formulation of the standard model, 2) aid effectiveness (positively) depends on structural economic vulnerability, 3) it depends (negatively) on political instability An augmented model including these assumptions is estimated on 5-year subperiods from 1965 to 1999 for 59 developing countries, using the Arellano-Bond GMM estimator and new composite indicators of policy, economic vulnerability, political instability None of the previous assumptions is rejected It follows that an "efficient" allocation of aid has to consider not only the quality of the present policy, but also its potential improvement, the economic vulnerability faced by the recipient country (more aid needed), and its political instability as well (aid less effective)

Abstract: This article highlights distinctions between three determinants of poverty - low labour productivity, vulnerability, and dependency - and two categories of anti-poverty interventions - livelihood promotion and livelihood protection. Within this framework, social safety nets can be conceptualised as publicly funded transfer programmes with 'consumption smoothing', rather than 'mean shifting', objectives. However the article hypothesises that safety nets can have both 'protection' and 'promotion' effects. Three southern African case studies confirm that even tiny income transfers are often invested in income-generating activities, education, social networks, or the acquisition of productive assets, suggesting that social safety nets, far from being a merely residual welfarist intervention to alleviate transitory and livelihood shocks, can play a significant role in reducing chronic poverty.