Abstract: Compelling evidence for an association between major adverse life experience and subsequent major depression is reviewed. Determining individual vulnerability to life stress and the effect of stressors on treatment outcome of depression are highlighted as the next major targets for contemporary stress research. Methodological concerns in the evaluation of stressors are detailed, and available data on variables that may influence the stress-depression relationship are presented. The critical importance of multivariate models in understanding individual vulnerability and outcome is emphasized. As methods for ascertaining stressful life events and chronic stressors continue to be refined, and models addressing the complex relationship of stressors and depression continue to be developed, prediction of stressor effects in onset and outcome of major depression will become increasingly more precise.

Abstract: Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts are expressed as functions of climate change and 'vulnerability'. Vulnerability is measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, population above 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine world regions, for the period 2000-2200, for agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector- borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term, the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be the crucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of the sector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negative or positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at. Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorer regions.

Abstract: Climate change may affect the frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution of severe coastal storms. Concurrent sea-level rise would raise the baseline of flooding during such events. Meanwhile, social vulnerability factors such as poverty and disability hinder the ability to cope with storms and storm damage. While physical changes are likely to remain scientifically uncertain into the foreseeable future, the ability to mitigate potential impacts from coastal flooding may be fostered by better understanding the interplay of social and physical factors that produce human vulnerability. This study does so by integrating the classic causal model of hazards with social, environmental, and spatial dynamics that lead to the differential ability of people to cope with hazards. It uses Census data, factor analysis, data envelopment analysis, and floodplain maps to understand the compound social and physical vulnerability of coastal residents in the city of Revere, MA, USA.

Abstract: The tension between international agencies, national and local institutions of the Global South has received much recent attention. This paper contributes to the debate by contrasting contemporary participatory models of management for the built environment with local experience of social capacity building and vulnerability to local flooding. It draws on field data collected in 1995–96 and is set within the contexts of recent structural adjustment and democratisation in Guyana. Identified vulnerabilities to flood hazard reveal that social and political assets play key roles in shaping access to local, national and international resources for environmental management. Despite recent structural reforms, and a rhetoric of participatory democracy, it is found that marginalized groups with limited social resources (women, children, the aged, the economically poor, petty-agriculturalists and squatters) continue to be excluded from local participatory decision-making in environmental management, and that the top-down construction of community has enabled local and national political elites to capture institutional structures designed to facilitate local empowerment and sustainable environmental management in coastal Guyana. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract: This paper presents a methodology for enumerating the vuinerabilities of a system, and determining what countermeasures can best close those vulnerabilities. We first describe how to characterize possible adversaries in terms of their resources, access, and risk tolerance, then we show how to map vulnerabilities to the system throughout its life cycle, and finally we demonstrate how to correlate the attacker's characteristics with the characteristics of the vulnerability to see if an actual threat exists. Countermeasures need to be considered only for the attacks that meet the adversaries' resources and objectives. Viable countermeasures must meet user needs for cost, ease of use, compatibility, performance, and availability. 1998 NSPW 9/96 Chodottsville, VA, USA 1-,58113-168-2/99/0007... * This paper is based on research done by a working group sponsored by the National Security Agency.

Abstract: This book provides a global view of the social effects of disaster in developed and developing countries. It focuses on the 1994 Northridge Earthquake in the US and other recent disasters to examine vulnerability and post-disaster recovery strategies. The authors also explore the ways state policy can reduce vulnerability in the future.

Abstract: This paper uses recent theoretical advances in the field of hazards research to inform the analysis of an empirical study on flood hazard conducted in central Pakistan. The investigation seeks to understand the causes of vulnerability and their development that culminates in disaster, with the basic presumption that empirical events have causal links going back to societal structures which are not measurable but contain the mechanisms that lead to the events and their perceptions. A case study in five villages of central Pakistan was conducted to understand the elements of communities' and social groups' differential vulnerability to flood hazard. The elements of vulnerability are situated within a tripartite conceptual space of vulnerability, composed of entitlement relations, empowerment relations, and political economy. A modified “pressure and release” model was applied to the field survey results to understand the progression of vulnerability from the structural abstract level to the concrete level of physical disasters. I concluded that the study communities' vulnerability was largely a function of their disempowerment. vulnerability,

Abstract: Structured interviews with 165 adolescent black males investigated the differences between gang and nongang youth. Bivariate analyses identified 46 variables that distinguished the two groups within five domains of interest‐individual, family, peer, school, and neighborhood. Logistic regression analyses reduced the number of significant differences to 14. We suggest several directions for programs to prevent youth from joining street gangs and emphasize the importance of gang prevention or very early intervention.

Abstract: The history of the response to HIV/AIDS has developed in four phases. The first global AIDS strategy by WHO in 1986-87 defined HIV/AIDS in terms of individual risk behaviors. Specification of risk behaviors as a central concern led to risk-reduction programs which were designed to change individual behaviors. As the individual behavior based approach to prevention developed concerns regarding societal behaviors arose. Insights on how to analyze and address the societal basis of vulnerability to HIV/AIDS evolved from two major lines of reasoning and experience: 1) as national and community HIV epidemics matured societal-level risk factor was identified; 2) womens ability to effectuate free and informed choices about their sexual behavior was strongly linked to their roles and status in the society. Public health drew on the human rights framework to analyze societally based vulnerability and to guide efforts at societal transformation. Viewing the contribution of societal factors to vulnerability to HIV/AIDS through a rights perspective disaggregates the societal issues into discrete elements. The most recent phase in the evolving understanding of HIV/AIDS is to see human behavior as a blend of individual characteristics and a societal context defined by human rights.

Abstract: This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed. Two of the models fail to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. This exercise suggests, though, that while forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crisis, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.

Abstract: Household and community responses to HIV and AIDS are shaped by the contexts in which women, men and children live and socialize. In this study carried out in the Dominican Republic, Mexico, India, Tanzania and Thailand, factors relating to economic resources and gender influenced the forms of care and support made available to people living with HIV and AIDS. Adults and children in poorer households and communities suffered most. Beliefs about sexual transmission were influenced by what was, and was not, thought to be appropriate conduct for men and women. Prevailing gender relations affected what care was provided, by whom, to people living with HIV and AIDS. Future programmes of HIV-related prevention and care should place more stress on the vulnerability of poorer households and women. More attention needs to be paid to investing in, and supporting, those in the informal sector (mostly women) who provide care. Furthermore, the responsibilities of men to appraise their own HIV-related risk and...

Abstract: It is common knowledge that enormous individual differences in drug intake exist in humans (de Wit et al. 1986). A large number of people have tried drugs at least once, but for most of them drug use consists in single or few nonrenewed experiences. Among people that persist in taking drugs, drug use can remain an occasional behavior that is limited, for example, to weekends or parties. Finally, only some subjects among drug users develop drug abuse, i.e., a compulsive drug use that becomes the principal goal-directed behavior of the subject (O’Brien et al. 1986). The origin of the peculiar vulnerability to develop drug abuse observed in some individuals is one of the principal questions to be answered about addiction.

Abstract: A general framework is offered for characterizing behavioral risks in a way that might help coordinate behavioral interventions. It is demonstrated in terms of adolescents' vulnerability, arising from the life situations confronting teens, from teens' understanding of those situations, and from the beliefs of those entrusted with helping them (parents, educators, psychologists, etc.). The framework provides a rationale for identifying opportunities to reduce adolescent vulnerability, based on research regarding the genesis and control of risks. It provides a common language for characterizing alternative theoretical approachs to these issues and a systematic way to integrate their results. It is illustrated with results from research on the role of information in determining adolescent vulnerability.

Abstract: Concerns exist within the public sector about the ability of organizations to communicate issues of risk. These concerns include: the nature and magnitude of risks; the vulnerability of those who may bear the consequences associated with an event; and the sense of helplessness felt by victim groups. Apart from the public sector’s role as risk generator, regulator and communicator, it also has some responsibility for dealing with the consequences of a major catastrophic event through agencies such as health care and the emergency services. Under certain conditions, it is apparent that concerns over risk issues can escalate beyond a level expected by those charged with the management of that risk. Within this framework, the effective communication of risk and uncertainty is an integral, but often neglected, part of public sector activities. This article explores the process of risk communication and risk amplification and suggests a number of perspectives on policy development.

Abstract: Are domestic regime changes catalysts for interstate conflict? How does this relationship vary across different types of regime change? Do regime changes affect the vulnerability and aggressiveness...

Abstract: We examine how the occupation of farming structures the stress experiences of individuals through the timing and placement of actions. Further, we show how occupations have effects that spillover into family and friendship relationships. We find that farming affects both exposure and vulnerability to stressors. Specifically, farm men are more exposed to financial and job-related stressors, while less prone to marital conflict, than non-farmers. Given the importance of cohesion in farm family operations, farm men are more vulnerable to such conflict when it occurs. However, farm men are unaffected, if not consoled, by knowledge of undesirable events in the lives of their friends. We explore this finding and conclude that farm men use downward social comparisons to cope with the high levels of uncertainty characteristic of farming in the aftermath of the 1980s farm crisis.

Abstract: This case study presents the main findings from the community of Cisne Dos, in Guayaquil, Ecuador. The study explored how poor households respond to changes in economic circumstances and labor market conditions, what strategies they adopt to limit the impact of shocks and generate additional resources, and what constraints impede their actions. Three features distinguish this study from other poverty studies: a micro-level approach combining households and communities as the main units of analysis, an unusually long period of observation for some communities and households, and a comparative framework offering fours cases with very different economic development levels and institutional contexts. The study concludes with some priority recommendations for action: 1) support households in their role as safety net; 2) alleviate constraints on women's labor supply; 3) ensure that social capital is not taken for granted; 4) develop social policy that integrates human capital and social capital; 5) pursue further research; and 6) develop tools and indicators to strengthen the assets of the poor.

Abstract: Survey responses from Fortune 1000 firms were examined to assess whether firms changed their whistleblowing policies to response to changes in state statutes concerning whistleblowing. We predicted that firms might have created internal channels for whistleblowing in response to new legislation that increased their vulnerability to whistleblowing claims by employees. In fact, very few firms indicated that they had created their policies in responses to legal changes.

Abstract: A loss of solvency increases central bank vulnerability, reducing the credibility of commitments to defend a nominal regime, including an exchange rate peg. This paper develops a methodology to assess central bank solvency and exposure to risk. The measure, based on Value-at-Risk, is frequently used to evaluate commercial risk. The paper emphasizes that the ability to sustain nominal commitments cannot be gauged by focusing only on selected accounts (such as reserves), but requires a comprehensive solvency and vulnerability analysis of the monetary authorities’ complete portfolio (including off-balance-sheet operations). The suggested measure has powerful reporting value and its disclosure could improve monitoring of sovereign solvency risk.

Abstract: Over the past century, a range of volcanic hazards, particularly pyroclastic flows and debris flows, have claimed over 60000 lives, and between 1980 and 1990 alone, have detrimentally affected the day-to-day lives of over 600 000 people. Although a battery of mitigation measures are now available to reduce the impact of volcanic hazards, rapidly increasing populations near active volcanoes in the developing world will ensure increasing vulnerability to hazardous volcanogenic phenomena into the next millenium, and new initiatives are required to prevent a contemporaneous rise in the numbers of volcanic disasters. Alongside increased monitoring, partly through improved satellite observations, a programme of public education and training is needed to ensure that both civil authorities and local populations are able to respond rapidly and appropriately to a developing volcanic emergency. This in turn requires greater focus on improved communication between scientists and the responsible civil authorities, and the formulation of workable contingency plans based upon reliable and informed scientific opinion.

Abstract: I argued that a range of economic, social and technological changes had combined and interacted to create a society that had become increasingly hostile to our wellbeing, and especially that of young people because of their social and psychological vulnerability. The changes included increased family conflict and breakdown, youth unemployment, poverty, education pressures and media influence, and also the emergence of a sense of hopelessness about the world’s future.

Abstract: This study pooled the demographic data reported in 40 studies on seasonal affective disorder to identify the ratio of men to women with this disorder. Among the 1129 subjects recruited for these 40 studies, women out-numbered men. A sex difference in biochemical responses to climatic variables was postulated as one of the possible explanations of the observed women's vulnerability to seasonal affective disorder.

Abstract: SUMMARY Wide variation in rates of children on protection registers in different authorities has led to doubts about the reliability of local decision making. A study of 1,752 referrals, for suspected abuse or neglect in eight English local authorities, found that indicators of child and family vulnerability were more important than local area in explaining selection for initial child protection conference and placement on registers. There appeared to be agreement on 'common-sense' risk indicators but stronger measurements of risk would enable child protec tion procedures to be better targeted. During the last two decades, following public concern about children's deaths at the hands of their care-givers in Britain, increasingly specific procedures for intervention have been laid down by central government (Home Office et al., 1991). A child at risk of significant harm, however, must pass through a number of decision points before being made the subject of an inter-agency protection plan and placed on a register. First, there is an unknown number of 'cases' in the community, only some of whom will be identified by front-line professionals or lay people and referred to police or social services depart

Abstract: Consideration of how to respond to climate change frequently turns upon the evaluation of the undesirable consequences of some possible effect of that change. For coastal property, for example, sea level rise might inundate homes or cause salt water to intrude on sources of fresh water. In the agricultural sectors, hotter climates might cause crop yields to fall, with or without prudent adaptation. If we think of the consequences of climate change as the result of crossing a physically determined threshold, then it can be instructive to consider the probability of reaching that threshold under various states of the world. Initially ignoring the potential for adaptation can allow the research to focus on crops and growing regions where adaptation might be the most helpful. We begin with the notion that the probability of crossing a threshold can be a workable metric of vulnerability. This chapter will develop a uniformly applicable index to characterize probabilistically, the crossing of one or more thresholds. The vulnerability index accounts for uncertainty in our understanding of how the climate might be changing and uncertainty in our understanding of the consequences of climate change. A complementary index of sustainability is simply one minus the vulnerability index.