Abstract: * APPROACHES TO RISK AND DISASTER: Introduction: Danger and ModernityRisk and Damaging Events * The Geographicalness of Disaster * Natural Hazards * Technological Hazards * Social Hazards: Violence and the Disasters of War * Vulnerability Perspectives: The Human Ecology of Endangerment * Active Perspectives: Responses to Disaster and Adjustments to Risks * COMMUNITIES AT RISK, PLACES OF DISASTER: 'Unnatural' Disasters: The Case of Earthquake Hazards * Contexts of Risk: Mountain Land Hazards and Vulnerabilities * Risks in the City * Place Annihilation: Air War and the Vulnerability of Cities * Holocaust: Genocide and Geographical Calamity Concluding Remarks: the perspective of ideas

Abstract: Why the least victimized by violence (e.g., women and elderly) are most fearful is a central paradox in the fear of crime literature. Four attempts to resolve the paradox are discussed: hidden victimization of women; greater tendencies of women to recall early life-course experiences, and to generalize fear from one context to another and from one type of victimization to another; vulnerability ofwomen; and male discounting offear. Empirical evidence from a Stockholm survey is used to argue that the hidden victimization strategem does not seem likely to succeed in explaining fear levels. Tendencies for women to generalize differently from men across time, space or type of victimization experience are not found or weak. Results are consistent with the vulnerability hypothesis, specifically the greater 'ecological vulnerability' of women (Sparks 1982), but there is also evidence of male 'discounting' of risk and fear. Further research is needed to assess the extent to which female vulnerability is more important than male discounting in accounting for risk perceptions and fear of crime.

Abstract: The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.

Abstract: Three interrelated questions are posed. First, what is the significance of culture for theories of institutional resilience and vulnerability? Second, what are the cultural possibilities for organizational safety and learning? Third, can a theory of institutional vulnerability to disaster and crisis be translated into one of practical resilience? The paper explores these issues with reference to Barry Turner’s seminal Man-Made Disasters model of system vulnerability together with more recent extensions and critiques. Attempts to move from this framework to a theoretical characterization of the ‘safe’ organization are outlined, as is parallel research on high reliability organizations. Critique of this work in the debate over the limits to safety in complex organizations has focused in particular upon the political processes which corrupt possibilities for organizational learning. It is argued that such political problems, and in particular that of blame in organizations, ultimately require political solutions. Examples are given of solutions in aviation monitoring systems.

Abstract: This paper describes how a high proportion of Greater Georgetown’s inhabitants are subjected to regular floods and examines also the vulnerability of households to flooding and flood impacts in four of the city’s 49 wards. It demonstrates the importance of incorporating social and economic assets together with physical resources as key “dynamic pressures”(1)in assessments of household and neighbourhood vulnerability to environmental stress. It also identifies households and communities as active agents in the management of vulnerability and examines the potential of such organizations for reducing vulnerability based upon economic poverty.

Abstract: A British political expert discusses why American politicians spend so much time campaigning and explains how politicians' vulnerability has led to problems.

Abstract: Historically, Thailand has been a disaster-free country, suffering only minor losses from natural hazards through the years. Emerging as a newly industrialised nation, the kingdom now faces an increased risk of economic and public damage from man-made disasters associated with rapid development. A risk assessment was carried out on the level of disaster management. That assessment was preceded by an analysis of the traditional definitions of disaster risk, resulting in a redefinition to fit the needs of this study. This holds that the risk of disaster is the product of hazards, vulnerability and the level of management exercised over both the hazard and the vulnerable elements. The results of the risk assessment, conducted through analysis of those three components, are discussed along with impediments which may hinder good disaster or accident management. Floods, in both natural and man-made manifestations, were identified as the highest risk factor, followed by major accidents and explosions, both man-made hazards. Major recommendations arising from the study included the consolidation of disaster management responsibilities currently held by several agencies into a central co-ordinating committee, the review and restructure of related law and regulations, the conduct of provincial and country-wide hazard assessments and the creation of a ‘culture of safety’ in Thailand

Abstract: The ways in which private businesses are affected by and attempt to recover from earthquakes and other disasters have seldom been addressed empirically. Research findings on the business impacts of disasters have generally been based on data from individual case studies or from a limited number of firms, rather than on large-scale surveys, and studies have tended to use purposive or convenience samples, rather than systematically selected ones. Over the past few years, however, the Disaster Research Center has been carrying out a program of research on businesses and hazards that has included large-scale studies on such topics as Small Business Administraton loan decision making following the Whittier Narrows earthquake (Dahlhamer, 1992); disaster preparedness (Tierney and Dahlhamer, 1995; Dahlhamer and D'Souza, forthcoming, 1997); business impacts and recovery following the 1993 Midwest floods (Tierney, Nigg, and Dahlhamer, 1996); and business vulnerability to disaster-induced lifeline service interruption (Tierney and Nigg, 1995). Because of its scope and severity, the Northridge event provided an opportunity to further explore business vulnerability to disasters and the factors that affect business disaster recovery.

Abstract: Disaster management concepts have gradually developed at different levels, where people are more aware that there is more to disaster management than merely reaction to events. Sound disaster management is the effective application of holistic management techniques to hazards and their relationship with vulnerability. In other words, it is the effective application of risk management techniques to all hazards and all vulnerability factors. The ultimate aim of disaster management is to manage circumstances in such a way that the outcome is not a disaster.

Abstract: The vulnerabihty of the agricultural sector in any region to future possible climate-change scenarios is determined to a great extent by the vulnerability of the sector to current climatic, economic and policy scenarios. Agricultural systems which are currently subject to extreme climatic interannual variability (drought, flood, storms, etc.) are likely to become even more vulnerable under the most commonly expected scenarios of climate change (i.e. increased temperatures, increased rainfall variability). Similarly, agricultural systems which are currently subject to drastic changes in economic and policy scenarios are also prone to become more vulnerable under expected climate-change conditions. The agricultural sector of Latin America has been subject to important variations in economical conditions and policies. These conditions have affected the structure of agricultural production, and resulted in a large reduction of the number of small farmers, who have migrated to poor metropolitan areas. Even for larger, commercial farmers, unstable and often inconsistent agricultural policies have increased the vulnerability of the sector. Additionally, large areas of Latin America are already affected by current interannual cllrnatic variabil~ty related to the length of rainy seasons and the occurrence of extreme events (droughts, floods, etc.). The few stud~es conducted In the region to specifically assess the impact of climate change on agriculture have revealed expected reductions and increased variability in crop productivity. Similar results should be expected in the vast regions devoted to livestock production, since the systems are based on a fragile balance of nutrients, available water, stocking rates and pasture species. The characteristics of the current situation described in this article demonstrate the vulnerability of Latin American agriculture to climate change. Preparing the agricultural sector to mitigate the potential negative effects of climate change will require strong and consistent efforts in both the scientific and policy sectors of the region.

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to provide a fuller and more integrated understanding of poverty based on the results of a nation wide participatory study recently completed in South Africa. A surprisingly consistent view of poverty emerges from the study which includes social isolation, malnourished children, crowded homes, the use of basic energy sources, no employment, and fragmented households. A clear image of what results from extreme poverty also emerges comprising continuous ill health, arduous and often hazardous work for virtually no income, no power to influence change, and high levels of anxiety and stress. The article concludes that conventional definitions of poverty do not fully describe the experience of poverty as analysed by the poor themselves. Instead, the multidimensional nature of poverty suggests that three basic concepts would be useful in any analysis of extent, nature and persistence of poverty. These are sufficiency, access and vulnerability.

Abstract: Many studies show that fear of crime among the elderly is a serious problem (Clark, Ekblom, & Mayhew, 1985; Eve & Eve, 1984; Ollenburger, 1981; Ortega& Myles, 1987). Most of the studies also suggest that fear of crime has serious psychological, physical, and financial consequences for the elderly (Garafalo, 1981; Jayewardene, Juliani, & Taibot, 1983; Yin, 1985). Although several studies have focused on the fear of crime among the elderly, few have analyzed fear of crime within the person-environment context. As a consequence, the causes of fear of crime remain unclear. Rather than viewing fear of crime as a consequence of victimization, fear of crime should be viewed within a more general context of person-environment, which reflects the interaction between the person and the environment. Such a context places fear of crime in a broader and more analytic perspective. Moreover, although the Black elderly represent the largest minority group among the aged (U.S. Census Bureau, 1992), information on the fear of crime among elderly Blacks is sparse because the Black elderly are underrepresented in most of the studies on fear of crime. Therefore, it is difficult to evaluate the representative nature and relevance of the data collected with regard to Black seniors. The purpose of this study is to examine the nature, extent, and causes of the fear of crime among Black seniors by focusing on the environmental factors, perceptions of vulnerability, vicarious victimization, and personal victimization.

Abstract: Water requirements to the year 2025 at regional and national levels are examined in order to assess emerging problems of stress on freshwater resources. Long-range water patterns will be governed by such future factors as population economic scale and structure technology consumption patterns agricultural practices and policy approaches. This study focuses on Conventional Development Scenarios which are driven by: 1) commonly used demographic and economic projections 2) a convergence hypothesis that developing region consumption and production practices will evolve gradually in a globalizing economy toward those of industrialized regions 3) an assumption of gradual technological advance without major surprises and 4) the absence of major policy changes affecting water needs or use. The scenarios show a rapid increase in water requirements especially in developing regions. Several indices are introduced for assessing the level of future water vulnerability at the country level. These include the use-to-resource ratio a gauge of average overall pressure on water resources and threats to aquatic ecosystems; coefficient of variation of precipitation a measure of hydrological fluctuation; storage-to-flow ratio an indicator of the capacity of infrastructure to mute such fluctuation; and import dependence an index of reliance on inflows from contiguous countries. To supplement these physical indices of vulnerability a socioeconomic coping capacity index (average future per capita income) represents a countrys ability to endure emerging water problems and uncertainties. Together the indices are used to signal changing water vulnerability for each country as the scenarios unfold. The information is capsulated in a series of "water stress" maps. The Conventional Development Scenarios are not predictions. Their power is to reveal the consequences of common assumptions about the future and of policy complacency. The authors learn that such scenarios would bring a continuing deterioration of water conditions in those areas that are already water scarce and an extension of new water stress conditions in many places throughout the world. Conventional Development Scenarios do not represent a satisfactory future when judged on sustainable development criteria. However they are not inevitable. It is suggested how the authors might envision more sustainable and desirable futures and act to achieve them. (authors)

Abstract: Agricultural production is one of the pillars of the Argentinean economy. The contribution of this sector is expected to keep growing in the near future as a consequence of the current technological development trend. However, the projected changes in climate and in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the coming years is likely to affect the productivity of crops, thus causing an impact on the national economy. This paper addresses climate change impact on the production of the main crops of the Argentinean pampean region by means of crop growth and development simulation models for wheat, maize and soybean included in DSSAT v. 3.0 (Dension Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu). The weather data used includes temperature, global solar radiation and precipitation values from 23 sites within the region (current climate conditions) and the corresponding GISS general circulation model projections for the year 2050 (future climate) with CO2 concentrations of 330 and 550 ppm respectively. According to the results obtained, a generalized increase In soybean yield and a decrease in maize yield would occur. Wheat yield is likely to increase in the southern and the western parts of the region and decrease towards the north. Wheat and soybean production in the pampean region would increase by 3.6 and 20.7 % respectively, while maize production would be reduced by 16.5 %. KEY 'IVORDS: Climate change Argentina. Models. Wheat. Maize Soybean

Abstract: We examine challenger emergence in Senate elections by looking at the 1992 campaign in depth. We develop unproved measures of incumbent: vulnerability using data from the 1988 and 1990 NES Senate Election Studies. These measures are used to test the hypothesis that higher-quality challengers are more likely to challenge vulnerable incumbents. We find generally weak relationships between our incumbent vulnerability measures and challenger quality. Instead, challenger quality scores increase with the size of the pool of potential high-quality challengers.

Abstract: A number of studies conducted since the late 1970s have evaluated state and federal responses to drought in the United States. Each of these studies identified a number of key issues and impediments that needed to be addressed to improve the nation's ability to cope with and prepare for future episodes of drought. A content analysis of these studies was performed to identify common threads in their recommendations. The premise of this analysis was that the series of drought years that occurred between 1986 and 1992 and recurred between 1994 and 1996 increased awareness of our nation's continuing and apparent growing vulnerability to drought. This awareness has led to greater consensus among principal constituents and stakeholders, and also a greater sense of urgency to implement actions now to lessen vulnerability. The results of this analysis revealed that several themes recur: create an integrated national drought policy and plan; develop an integrated national climate monitoring (drought watch) system; incorporate drought in FEMA's National Mitigation Strategy; conduct post-drought audits of response efforts; establish regional drought forums; and encourage development of state drought mitigation plans.

Abstract: This document resulted from the recognition that in order to promote better prevention and appropriate development planning hard data are needed. The first section introduces AIDS as a public health problem and development issue explaining the reasons why the epidemic is so serious. Data are then presented on HIV infection levels in different countries showing HIV levels of 30% and higher in antenatal studies. Inevitably the data presented illustrate the limitations of serosurveillance in southern Africa. Selected information on population subgroups are presented to illustrate the variability of infection levels while also presenting an overview of the Southern African Development Community region antenatal sexually transmitted infection and tuberculosis data collected by the US Bureau of Census. The second section introduces the concepts of vulnerability and susceptibility to AIDS viewed in the context of the risk environment. The analysis focuses on the economic implications of AIDS measured from the perspective of a given sector subsector or organization as well as its impact on society. The third section highlights issues and options for research on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS. The paper suggests that efforts to mitigate the impact of AIDS must be based on a sound analysis of the scale and nature of that impact both economic and social.

Abstract: While many works compare traits of homeless adults across levels of alcohol use, few specifically consider whether drinking status affects determinants of either homelessness or “vulnerability” to homelessness. This paper relies on a 1986 Chicago, Illinois sample (n = 535) to consider the potential contributions of resources, social network characteristics, disaffiliation, and mental health problems. Results suggest that resource problems may determine homelessness regardless of drinking status. But drinking-associated problems may raise the resource threshold for “vulnerability,” reduce the protection afforded by social networks against both homelessness and “vulnerability,7rdquo; increase the deleterious impact of disaffiliation, and spur complicating mental health problems. [Translations are provided in the International Abstracts Section of this issue.]

Abstract: "The paper argues that women moving abroad as domestic workers are, in many instances, unprepared, unprotected, and therefore open to exploitation and violent treatment. It suggests that the factors resulting in this common outcome are clear, and that an examination of the situation and the relevant factors leads us to a set of intervention strategies which are feasible. Six areas of intervention are identified: conventions, legislation, government control of processes, supervision, preparation and empowerment of the women, and support NGOs [nongovernmental organizations] including self-help groups."

Abstract: Distinguishing characteristics and issues of comparative and cross-cultural research, problems and opportunities, and an assessment of future prospects are offered and related to disaster research. No single approach is advocated; rather, various approaches -- case study to cross-national, contemporary to historical, and qualitative to quantitative -- are recommended. Methodological issues including model specification, problems of aggregation, intra- versus inter-national variation, and secondary versus primary data collection are addressed. Particular attention is devoted to issues of equivalence related to conceptualization, data comparability, operationalization and measurement, conversion, standardization, and units of observation. The need for systematic efforts to develop research tools that can be utilized to measure critical concepts such as recovery, restoration, risk, and mitigation is identified. Finally, discipline-based, yet disaster relevant, cross-national and comparative research agendas consistent with a broader ecological perspective targeting disasters, development, and the social production of vulnerability are advocated.

Abstract: The Facility Professional. Why a Disaster Planning and Recovery Strategy? Problems and Performance. Prescriptives. Risk Management. Managing Risks: Reducing the Probability of Problems, Impacts, and Consequences. The Vulnerability Search, Vulnerability Analysis, and Vulnerability Rectification. Contingency Management. "...But the Process is Tedious." Communication. Myths and Some Precarious Perceptions. Appendices. Glossary. Index.