Abstract: Energy plays a vital role in economic development. It performs a key for sustainable development. Hence, many studies have attempted to look for the direction of causality between energy consumption (EC), economic growth (GDP) and CO2 emissions. This paper, therefore, applies the panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality test to investigate the relationship between EC, GDP and CO2 emissions for 15 MENA countries covering the annual period 1973-2008. The finding of this study reveals that there is no causal link between GDP and EC; and between CO2 emissions and EC in the short run. However, in the long run, there is a unidirectional causality running from GDP and CO2 emissions to EC. In addition, to deal with the heterogeneity in countries and the endogeneity bias in regressors, this paper applies respectively the FMOLS and the DOLS approach to estimate the long-run relationship between these three factors.

Abstract: The present article uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to identify the long run equilibrium relationship between electricity con- sumptionandeconomicgrowthTodaYamamotoandWald-testcausalitytestshaveidentified the direction of the causal relationship between these two variables in the case of Pakistan in the period between 1971 and 2008 Ng-Perron and Clement-Montanes-Reyes unit root tests are used to handle the problem of integrating orders for variables The results suggest that the two variables are in a long run equilibrium relationship and economic growth leads to electricity consumption and not vice versa

Abstract: The present article uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to identify the long run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Toda-Yamamoto and Wald-test causality tests have identified the direction of the causal relationship between these two variables in the case of Pakistan in the period between 1971 and 2008. Ng-Perron and Clement-Montanes-Reyes unit root tests are used to handle the problem of integrating orders for variables. The results suggest that the two variables are in a long run equilibrium relationship and economic growth leads to electricity consumption and not vice versa.

Abstract: Conditional on education and experience, the distribution of personal labor income appears to be double Pareto, a distribution that obeys the power law in both the upper and lower tails. In particular, the error term of the classical Mincer equation appears to be Laplace, or double exponential. This “double power law” is not rejected by goodness-of-fit tests. I compare two diffusion processes (one mean-reverting, the other unit root) with a stationary double Pareto distribution as a model of income dynamics. The data favors the mean-reverting process for modeling income dynamics over the unit root process.

Abstract: In two recent papers Enders and Lee (2009) and Becker, Enders and Lee (2006) provide Lagrange multiplier and ordinary least squares de-trended unit root tests, and stationarity tests, respectively, which incorporate a Fourier approximation element in the deterministic component. Such an approach can prove useful in providing robustness against a variety of breaks in the deterministic trend function of unknown form and number. In this article, we generalize the unit root testing procedure based on local generalized least squares (GLS) de-trending proposed by Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996) to allow for a Fourier approximation to the unknown deterministic component in the same way. We show that the resulting unit root tests possess good finite sample size and power properties and the test statistics have stable non-standard distributions, despite the curious result that their limiting null distributions exhibit asymptotic rank deficiency.

Abstract: Energy plays a vital role in economic development. It performs a key for sustainable development. Hence, many studies have attempted to look for the direction of causality between energy consumption (EC), economic growth (GDP) and CO 2 emissions. This paper, therefore, applies the panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality test to investigate the relationship between EC, GDP and CO 2 emissions for 15 MENA countries covering the annual period 1973-2008. The finding of this study reveals that there is no causal link between GDP and EC; and between CO 2 emissions and EC in the short run. However, in the long run, there is a unidirectional causality running from GDP and CO 2 emissions to EC. In addition, to deal with the heterogeneity in countries and the endogeneity bias in regressors, this paper applies respectively the FMOLS and the DOLS approach to estimate the long-run relationship between these three factors. Keywords: MENA countries; Energy consumption; Economic growth; CO 2 emissions; Panel cointegration; Panel causality JEL Classifications: C33; O13; Q43

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the export‐led growth, growth‐led export, import‐led growth, growth‐led import and foreign deficit sustainability hypothesis in the case of China, using annual time series data from 1978‐2009.Design/methodology/approach – For estimation evidence this study employs the Phillips Perron unit root tests to examine the level of integration and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is employed to determine the long run relationship, and the direction of long run and short run causal relationship is examined by using modified Granger causality test.Findings – The results confirm the bidirectional long run relationship between the economic growth and exports, economic growth and imports, and exports and imports. These findings guided the authors to conclude that the exports‐led growth, growth‐led exports, imports‐led growth and growth‐led imports hypothesis is valid, and foreign deficit is sustainable for China. The long run elasticities are as fo...

Abstract: The objective of this study is twofold. (a) Construct the first ever financial development index (FDI) for Bangladesh using the principal component method (PCM). (b) Use the FDI to explore the existence of a long run relationship between FDI and economic growth. The Augmented Dickey Fuller and the Ng-Perron unit root tests have been applied to examine the stationarity properties of the series. To explore a long run relation, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration; and to assess the stability of the parameters, the rolling window regression approach have been used. The results show that the impact of real interest rate (RIR) and FDI on economic growth is negative. Estimates from rolling window method show that FDI and RIR are negatively related to economic growth for the years 1987–1988, 1992–1999, 2002–2006, 2008 and 2009; and 1986–1998, 2006 and 2007, respectively. The results may help policymakers formulate effective financial sector policies as a tool to promote ec...

Abstract: The purpose of the study is to examine the impact of tourism on economic growth in Sri Lanka through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The analysis was carried out ...

Abstract: [1] Correct representations of root functioning, such as root water uptake and hydraulic redistribution, are critically important for modeling the responses of vegetation to droughts and seasonal changes in soil moisture content. However, these processes are poorly represented in global land surface models. In this study, we incorporated two root functions: a root water uptake function which assumes root water uptake efficiency varies with rooting depth, and a hydraulic redistribution function into a global land surface model, CABLE. The water uptake function developed by Lai and Katul (2000) was also compared with the default one (see Wang et al., 2010) that assumes that efficiency of water uptake per unit root length is constant. Using eddy flux measurements of CO2 and water vapor fluxes at three sites experiencing different patterns of seasonal changes in soil water content, we showed that the two root functions significantly improved the agreement between the simulated fluxes of net ecosystem exchange and latent heat flux and soil moisture dynamics with those observed during the dry season while having little impact on the model simulation during the wet seasons at all three sites. Sensitivity analysis showed that varying several model parameters influencing soil water dynamics in CABLE did not significantly affect the model's performance. We conclude that these root functions represent a valuable improvement for land surface modeling and should be implemented into CABLE and other land surface models for studying carbon and water dynamics where rainfall varies seasonally or interannually.

Abstract: This paper examines both the linear and nonlinear causal relationships between crude oil price changes and stock market returns for the United States. In particular, the study applied a battery of unit root tests to ascertain the time series properties of crude oil price changes and stock market returns. The linear and nonlinear causality tests were conducted through the standard VAR and the M-G frameworks, respectively. The results from both the linear and nonlinear unit root tests indicate that crude oil price changes and stock market returns are level stationary. The results from the standard VAR model provide evidence of bidirectional causality between crude oil price changes and stock market returns. The results from the M-G causality test support the finding of nonlinear bidirectional causality between crude oil price changes and stock market returns.

Abstract: It has been argued that economies with more independent central banks experience lower inflation over time. In this paper we show that this relationship is sensitive to the methodology through which central bank independence indices are constructed. We stress the importance of employing dynamic central bank independence indices in two ways. First, we perform unit root tests with structural breaks to verify if the implementation of central bank reforms represents a structural break for the inflation rate dynamics. Second, we implement a panel data analysis. We find evidence that legislative reforms that modify the degree of independence of a central bank have a strong impact on the inflation rate dynamics. Moreover, underlying the importance of employing dynamic central bank independence indices, we confirm the negative relationship between the latter and inflation for a sample of 10 OECD countries.

Abstract: This paper examines the problem of testing and confidence set construction for one-dimensional functions of the coefficients in autoregressive (AR(p)) models with potentially persistent time series. The primary example concerns inference on impulse responses. A new asymptotic framework is suggested and some new theoretical properties of known procedures are demonstrated. I show that the likelihood ratio (LR) and LR± statistics for a linear hypothesis in an AR(p) can be uniformly approximated by a weighted average of local-to-unity and normal distributions. The corresponding weights depend on the weight placed on the largest root in the null hypothesis. The suggested approximation is uniform over the set of all linear hypotheses. The same family of distributions approximates the LR and LR± statistics for tests about impulse responses, and the approximation is uniform over the horizon of the impulse response. I establish the size properties of tests about impulse responses proposed by Inoue and Kilian (2002) and Gospodinov (2004), and theoretically explain some of the empirical findings of Pesavento and Rossi (2007). An adaptation of the grid bootstrap for impulse response functions is suggested and its properties are examined.

Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to examine the nature of Greek unemployment allowing for cross-sectional dependence among Greek regions and for the presence of structural breaks. The paper contributes to the literature assessing the stochastic properties of Greek regional unemployment rates using recently developed and more powerful panel unit-root tests, such as the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) panel unit root test of Im et al.(2010), that allow for level and trend breaks, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in the panel. The results show that in all cases, after taking into account the fact that regional unemployment rates in Greece are subject to a structural break both in mean and the slope of the series, the null hypothesis of a unit root is not rejected, indicating that the Greek regional unemployment series are non-stationary with the presence of a structural break.

Abstract: The classical nonstationary autoregressive models are both linear and Markov They include unit root and cointegration models A possible nonlinear extension is to relax the linearity and at the same time keep general properties such as nonstationarity and the Markov property A null recurrent Markov chain is nonstationary, and β-null recurrence is of vital importance for statistical inference in nonstationary Markov models, such as, eg, in nonparametric estimation in nonlinear cointegration within the Markov models The standard random walk is an example of a null recurrent Markov chain In this paper we suggest that the concept of null recurrence is an appropriate nonlinear generalization of the linear unit root concept and as such it may be a starting point for a nonlinear cointegration concept within the Markov framework In fact, we establish the link between null recurrent processes and autoregressive unit root models It turns out that null recurrence is closely related to the location of the roots of the characteristic polynomial of the state space matrix and the associated eigenvectors Roughly speaking the process is β-null recurrent if one root is on the unit circle, null recurrent if two distinct roots are on the unit circle, whereas the others are inside the unit circle It is transient if there are more than two roots on the unit circle These results are closely connected to the random walk being null recurrent in one and two dimensions but transient in three dimensions We also give an example of a process that by appropriate adjustments can be made β-null recurrent for any β ∈ (0, 1) and can also be made null recurrent without being β-null recurrent

Abstract: The unit root hypothesis owes much to the work of Dickey and Fuller and has gained momentum since the seminal contribution of Perron (1989), who introduced the idea of structural breaks in unit root tests. In a recent study Sen (2003), extending the work of Zivot and Andrews (1992), recommends the F-test statistic for a unit root in the presence of a structural change in the economy. The central aim of this paper is to apply the Sen test to tourist arrivals to Fiji. The idea behind this exercise is to identify the year of the structural break and, more importantly, to examine whether the break has had a permanent or temporary effect on tourist arrivals in Fiji. Among our key results, we find that visitor arrivals in Fiji from Australia, New Zealand and the USA are stationary, implying that shocks have a temporary effect.

Abstract: The Cauchy estimator of an autoregressive root uses the sign of the first lag as instrumental variable. The resulting IV t-type statistic follows a standard normal limiting distribution under a unit root case even under unconditional heteroscedasticity, if the series to be tested has no deterministic trends. The standard normality of the Cauchy test is exploited to obtain a standard normal panel unit root test under cross-sectional dependence and time-varying volatility with an orthogonalization procedure. The article’s analysis of the joint N, T asymptotics of the test suggests that (1) N should be smaller than T and (2) its local power is competitive with other popular tests. To render the test applicable when N is comparable with, or larger than, T, shrinkage estimators of the involved covariance matrix are used. The finite-sample performance of the discussed procedures is found to be satisfactory.

Abstract: 2 Abstract: The study attempts at finding the impact of foreign direct investment on carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. It takes carbon dioxide emissions as dependent variable and foreign direct investment, share of manufacturing value added and population density as independent variables. ADF, PP, Ng-Perron and Zivot-Andrews Unit root tests were used to find the unit root problem. ARDL and its error correction model were used to find the long run and short run relationships. The study found the long run relationship in the model but short run relationship did not exist. Foreign direct investment, manufacturing value added and population density have positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions.

Abstract: This study examines the long-run equilibrium relationship between government expenditure and revenue in Italy from 1862 to 1993, using cointegration techniques and the direction of causality relationship in the long and short runs between the variables through integrating the Error Correction Model (ECM) into the traditional Granger causality test. A Granger non-causality test (due to Toda and Yamamoto) is also performed. Unit root tests have been applied in order to investigate the stationarity properties of the series. Moreover, three more homogeneous sub-period (1862-1913; 1914-1946; 1947-1993) have been analyzed. The nexus between public expenditure and revenue has been discussed also by Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs). Empirical findings show how, for each sub-period, the policy adopted reflect the prevailing paradigm of public finance (neutral or orthodox finance, Keynesian finance and discretionary or compensatory finance, respectively).

Abstract: This paper investigates the unit root properties of electricity consumption per capita for the 67 developed and developing countries for 1971-2007 period. To examine the stationary properties of electricity consumption per capita, we have adopted Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) test of unit root that allows us to test for at most two endogenous breaks and uses the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test statistics. Results show that 65 country series reject the unit root null hypothesis except for 2 country series. Thus, our empirical findings provide significant evidence that electricity consumption per capita is stationary in almost all countries considered in the study. The stationarity of electricity consumption per capita indicates that it should be possible for the series to forecast future movements in the energy consumption based on the past behaviors of the series.

Abstract: An empirical likelihood–based confidence interval is proposed for interval estimations of the autoregressive coefficient of a first-order autoregressive model via weighted score equations. Although the proposed weighted estimate is less efficient than the usual least squares estimate, its asymptotic limit is always normal without assuming stationarity of the process. Unlike the bootstrap method or the least squares procedure, the proposed empirical likelihood–based confidence interval is applicable regardless of whether the underlying autoregressive process is stationary, unit root, near-integrated, or even explosive, thereby providing a unified approach for interval estimation of an AR(1) model to encompass all situations. Finite-sample simulation studies confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Abstract: Three important issues surround testing for a unit root in practice: uncertainty as to whether or not a linear deterministic trend is present in the data; uncertainty as to whether the initial condition of the process is (asymptotically) negligible or not, and the possible presence of nonstationary volatility in the data. Assuming homoskedasticity, Harvey, Leybourne, and Taylor (2011, Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming) propose decision rules based on a four-way union of rejections of quasi-differenced (QD) and ordinary least squares (OLS) detrended tests, both with and without a linear trend, to deal with the first two problems. In this paper we first discuss, again under homoskedasticity, how these union tests may be validly bootstrapped using the sieve bootstrap principle combined with either the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) or wild bootstrap resampling schemes. This serves to highlight the complications that arise when attempting to bootstrap the union tests. We then demonstrate that in the presence of nonstationary volatility the union test statistics have limit distributions that depend on the form of the volatility process, making tests based on the standard asymptotic critical values or, indeed, the i.i.d. bootstrap principle invalid. We show that wild bootstrap union tests are, however, asymptotically valid in the presence of nonstationary volatility. The wild bootstrap union tests therefore allow for a joint treatment of all three of the aforementioned issues in practice.