TL;DR: The results suggest that outbreaks can be contained by a strategy of targeted vaccination combined with early detection without resorting to mass vaccination of a population.
Abstract: Here we present a highly resolved agent-based simulation tool (EpiSims), which combines realistic estimates of population mobility,based on census and land-use data, with parameterized models for simulating the progress of a disease within a host and of transmission between hosts10. The simulation generates a largescale,dynamic contact graph that replaces the differential equations of the classic approach. EpiSims is based on the Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, which produces estimates of social networks based on the assumption that the transportation infrastructure constrains people’s choices about where and when to perform activities11. TRANSIMS creates a synthetic population endowed with demographics such as age and income, consistent with joint distributions in census data. It then estimates positions and activities of all travellers on a second-by-second basis. For more information on TRANSIMS and its availability, see Supplementary Information. The resulting social network is the best extant estimate of the physical contact patterns among large groups of people—alternative methodologies are limited to physical contacts among hundreds of people or non-physical contacts (such as e-mail or citations) among large groups.
TL;DR: Transportation ANalysis and SIMulation System (TRANSIMS) as mentioned in this paper is a system that uses advanced computational and analytical techniques to create an integrated regional transportation systems analysis environment.
Abstract: This paper summarizes the TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System (TRANSIMS) Project, the system`s major modules, and the project`s near-term plans. TRANSIMS will employ advanced computational and analytical techniques to create an integrated regional transportation systems analysis environment. The simulation environment will include a regional population of individual travelers and freight loads with travel activities and plans, whose individual interactions will be simulated on the transportation system, and whose environmental impact will be determined. We will develop an interim operational capability (IOC) for each major TRANSIMS module during the five-year program. When the IOC is ready, we will complete a specific case study to confirm the IOC features, applicability, and readiness.
TL;DR: This paper describes the parallel implementation of the TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System (TRANSIMS) traffic micro-simulation, and describes how information between domains is exchanged, and how the transportation network graph is partitioned.
Abstract: This paper describes the parallel implementation of the TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System (TRANSIMS) traffic micro-simulation. The parallelization method is domain decomposition, which means that each CPU of the parallel computer is responsible for a different geographical area of the simulated region. We describe how information between domains is exchanged, and how the transportation network graph is partitioned. An adaptive scheme is used to optimize load balancing. We then demonstrate how computing speeds of our parallel micro-simulations can be systematically predicted once the scenario and the computer architecture are known. This makes it possible, e.g., to decide if a certain study is feasible with a certain computing budget, and how to invest that budget. The main ingredients of the prediction are knowledge about the parallel implementation of the micro-simulation, knowledge about the characteristics of the partitioning of the transportation network graph, and knowledge about the interaction of these quantities with the computer system. In particular, we investigate the differences between switched and non-switched topologies, and the effects of 10 Mbit, 100 Mbit, and Gbit Ethernet. As an example, we show that with a common technology – 100 Mbit switched Ethernet – one can run the 20 000-link EMME/2-network for Portland (Oregon) more than 20 times faster than real time on 16 coupled Pentium CPUs.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors carried out an experimental analysis of a number of shortest path (routing) algorithms investigated in the context of the TRANSIMS (TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System) project.
Abstract: We carry out an experimental analysis of a number of shortest-path (routing) algorithms investigated in the context of the TRANSIMS (TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System) project. The main focus of the paper is to study how various heuristic as well as exact solutions and associated data structures affect the computational performance of the software developed for realistic transportation networks. For this purpose we have used a road network representing, with high degree of resolution, the Dallas Fort-Worth urban area.We discuss and experimentally analyze various one-to-one shortest-path algorithms. These include classical exact algorithms studied in the literature as well as heuristic solutions that are designed to take into account the geometric structure of the input instances.Computational results are provided to compare empirically the efficiency of various algorithms. Our studies indicate that a modified Dijkstra's algorithm is computationally fast and an excellent candidate for use in various transportation planning applications as well as ITS related technologies.
TL;DR: A description of how features relevant to traffic flow are currently under implementation in the TRANSIMS microsimulation, a proposition for standardized traffic flow tests for traffic simulation models, and the results of these tests for two different versions of the TRANS IMSmicrosimulation are discussed.
Abstract: Knowledge of fundamental traffic flow characteristics of traffi c simulation models is an essential requirement when using these models for the planning, design, and operation of transportation systems. In this paper we discuss the following: a description of how features relevant to traffic flow are currently under implementation in the TRANSIMS microsimulation, a proposition for standardized traffic flow tests for traffic simulation models, a nd the results of these tests for two different versions of the TRANSIMS microsimulation.