Surge

Abstract: Ice velocities derived from five Landsat 7 images acquired between January 2000 and February 2003 show a two- to six-fold increase in centerline speed of four glaciers flowing into the now-collapsed section of the Larsen B Ice Shelf. Satellite laser altimetry from ICEsat indicates the surface of Hektoria Glacier lowered by up to 38 +/- 6 m a six-month period beginning one year after the break-up in March 2002. Smaller elevation losses are observed for Crane and Jorum glaciers over a later 5-month period. Two glaciers south of the collapse area, Flask and Leppard, show little change in speed or elevation. Seasonal variations in speed preceding the large post-collapse velocity increases suggest that both summer melt percolation and changes in the stress field due to shelf removal play a major role in glacier dynamics.

Abstract: Based on observations of the 1982–1983 surge of Variegated Glacier, Alaska, a model of the surge mechanism is developed in terms of a transition from the normal tunnel configuration of the basal water conduit system to a linked cavity configuration that tends to restrict the flow of water, resulting in increased basal water pressures that cause rapid basal sliding. The linked cavity system consists of basal cavities formed by ice-bedrock separation (cavitation), ∼1 m high and ∼10 m in horizontal dimensions, widely scattered over the glacier bed, and hydraulically linked by narrow connections where separation is minimal (separation gap ≲ 0.1 m). The narrow connections, called orifices, control the water flow through the conduit system; by throttling the flow through the large cavities, the orifices keep the water flux transmitted by the basal water system at normal levels even though the total cavity cross-sectional area (∼200 m^2) is much larger than that of a tunnel system (∼10 m^2). A physical model of the linked cavity system is formulated in terms of the dimensions of the “typical” cavity and orifice and the numbers of these across the glacier width. The model concentrates on the detailed configuration of the typical orifice and its response to basal water pressure and basal sliding, which determines the water flux carried by the system under given conditions. Configurations are worked out for two idealized orifice types, step orifices that form in the lee of downglacier-facing bedrock steps, and wave orifices that form on the lee slopes of quasisinusoidal bedrock waves and are similar to transverse “N channels.” The orifice configurations are obtained from the results of solutions of the basal-sliding-with-separation problem for an ice mass constituting of linear half-space of linear rheology, with nonlinearity introduced by making the viscosity stress-dependent on an intuitive basis. Modification of the orifice shapes by melting of the ice roof due to viscous heat dissipation in the flow of water through the orifices is treated in detail under the assumption of local heat transfer, which guarantees that the heating effects are not underestimated. This treatment brings to light a melting-stability parameter Ξ that provides a measure of the influence of viscous heating on orifice cavitation, similar but distinct for step and wave orifices. Orifice shapes and the amounts of roof meltback are determined by Ξ. When Ξ ≳ 1, so that the system is “viscous-heating-dominated,” the orifices are unstable against rapid growth in response to a modest increase in water pressure or in orifice size over their steady state values. This growth instability is somewhat similar to the jokulhlaup-type instability of tunnels, which are likewise heating-dominated. When Ξ ≲ 1, the orifices are stable against perturbations of modest to even large size. Stabilization is promoted by high sliding velocity ν, expressed in terms of a ν^(−½) and ν^(−1) dependence of Ξ for step and wave cavities. The relationships between basal water pressure and water flux transmitted by linked cavity models of step and wave orifice type are calculated for an empirical relation between water pressure and sliding velocity and for a particular, reasonable choice of system parameters. In all cases the flux is an increasing function of the water pressure, in contrast to the inverse flux-versus-pressure relation for tunnels. In consequence, a linked cavity system can exist stably as a system of many interconnected conduits distributed across the glacier bed, in contrast to a tunnel system, which must condense to one or at most a few main tunnels. The linked cavity model gives basal water pressures much higher than the tunnel model at water fluxes ≳1 m^(3/s) if the bed roughness features that generate the orifices have step heights or wave amplitudes less than about 0.1 m. The calculated basal water pressure of the particular linked cavity models evaluated is about 2 to 5 bars below ice overburden pressure for water fluxes in the range from about 2 to 20 m^(3/s), which matches reasonably the observed conditions in Variegated Glacier in surge; in contrast, the calculated water pressure for a single-tunnel model is about 14 to 17 bars below overburden over the same flux range. The contrast in water pressures for the two types of basal conduit system furnishes the basis for a surge mechanism involving transition from a tunnel system at low pressure to a linked cavity system at high pressure. The parameter Ξ is about 0.2 for the linked cavity models evaluated, meaning that they are stable but that a modest change in system parameters could produce instability. Unstable orifice growth results in the generation of tunnel segments, which may connect up in a cooperative fashion, leading to conversion of the linked cavity system to a tunnel system, with large decrease in water pressure and sliding velocity. This is what probably happens in surge termination. Glaciers for which Ξ ≲ 1 can go into surge, while those for which Ξ ≳ 1 cannot. Because Ξ varies as α^(3/2) (where α is surface slope), low values of Ξ are more probable for glaciers of low slope, and because slope correlates inversely with glacier length in general, the model predicts a direct correlation between glacier length and probability of surging; such a correlation is observed (Clarke et al., 1986). Because Ξ varies inversely with the basal shear stress τ, the increase of τ that takes place in the reservoir area in the buildup between surges causes a decrease in Ξ there, which, by reducing Ξ below the critical value ∼1, can allow surge initiation and the start of a new surge cycle. Transition to a linked cavity system without tunnels should occur spontaneously at low enough water flux, in agreement with observed surge initiation in winter.

Abstract: Observations show that glaciers around the world are in retreat and losing mass. Internationally coordinated for over a century, glacier monitoring activities provide an unprecedented dataset of glacier observations from ground, air and space. Glacier studies generally select specific parts of these datasets to obtain optimal assessments of the mass-balance data relating to the impact that glaciers exercise on global sea-level fluctuations or on regional runoff. In this study we provide an overview and analysis of the main observational datasets compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). The dataset on glacier front variations (�42000 since 1600) delivers clear evidence that centennial glacier retreat is a global phenomenon. Intermittent readvance periods at regional and decadal scale are normally restricted to a subsample of glaciers and have not come close to achieving the maximum positions of the Little Ice Age (or Holocene). Glaciological and geodetic observations (�5200since 1850) show that the rates of early 21st-century mass loss are without precedent on a global scale, at least for the time period observed and probably also for recorded history, as indicated also in reconstructions from written and illustrated documents. This strong imbalance implies that glaciers in many regions will very likely suffer further ice loss, even if climate remains stable.

Abstract: Models show that even if global temperature rise can be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, only about 65 per cent of glacier mass will remain in the high mountains of Asia by the end of this century, and if temperatures rise by more than this the effects will be much more extreme. The Paris Agreement advocates that humanity should consider limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial temperatures, well below the previously discussed threshold of 2 °C. The announcement sparked a surge of research to understand the practicality and implications of the lower limit. Here, Philip Kraaijenbrink and colleagues simulate the effect of warming on the glaciers in the high mountains of Asia and show that, in a world that warms by just 1.5 °C, about 65 per cent of glacier mass will remain by 2100. But keeping warming below the 1.5 °C threshold is an ambitious goal. At the other extreme, scenarios that include continued high rates of greenhouse gas production instead suggest that only about 35 per cent of mass will remain by 2100. Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia (HMA) make a substantial contribution to the water supply of millions of people1,2, and they are retreating and losing mass as a result of anthropogenic climate change3 at similar rates to those seen elsewhere4,5. In the Paris Agreement of 2015, 195 nations agreed on the aspiration to limit the level of global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius ( °C) above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not known what an increase of 1.5 °C would mean for the glaciers in HMA. Here we show that a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C will lead to a warming of 2.1 ± 0.1 °C in HMA, and that 64 ± 7 per cent of the present-day ice mass stored in the HMA glaciers will remain by the end of the century. The 1.5 °C goal is extremely ambitious and is projected by only a small number of climate models of the conservative IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 ensemble. Projections for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 reveal that much of the glacier ice is likely to disappear, with projected mass losses of 49 ± 7 per cent, 51 ± 6 per cent and 64 ± 5 per cent, respectively, by the end of the century; these projections have potentially serious consequences for regional water management and mountain communities.