Stationary sequence

Abstract: 1 Stationary Time Series.- 2 Hilbert Spaces.- 3 Stationary ARMA Processes.- 4 The Spectral Representation of a Stationary Process.- 5 Prediction of Stationary Processes.- 6* Asymptotic Theory.- 7 Estimation of the Mean and the Autocovariance Function.- 8 Estimation for ARMA Models.- 9 Model Building and Forecasting with ARIMA Processes.- 10 Inference for the Spectrum of a Stationary Process.- 11 Multivariate Time Series.- 12 State-Space Models and the Kalman Recursions.- 13 Further Topics.- Appendix: Data Sets.

Abstract: This article introduces a resampling procedure called the stationary bootstrap as a means of calculating standard errors of estimators and constructing confidence regions for parameters based on weakly dependent stationary observations. Previously, a technique based on resampling blocks of consecutive observations was introduced to construct confidence intervals for a parameter of the m-dimensional joint distribution of m consecutive observations, where m is fixed. This procedure has been generalized by constructing a “blocks of blocks” resampling scheme that yields asymptotically valid procedures even for a multivariate parameter of the whole (i.e., infinite-dimensional) joint distribution of the stationary sequence of observations. These methods share the construction of resampling blocks of observations to form a pseudo-time series, so that the statistic of interest may be recalculated based on the resampled data set. But in the context of applying this method to stationary data, it is natural...

Abstract: We extend the jackknife and the bootstrap method of estimating standard errors to the case where the observations form a general stationary sequence. We do not attempt a reduction to i.i.d. values. The jackknife calculates the sample variance of replicates of the statistic obtained by omitting each block of $l$ consecutive data once. In the case of the arithmetic mean this is shown to be equivalent to a weighted covariance estimate of the spectral density of the observations at zero. Under appropriate conditions consistency is obtained if $l = l(n) \rightarrow \infty$ and $l(n)/n \rightarrow 0$. General statistics are approximated by an arithmetic mean. In regular cases this approximation determines the asymptotic behavior. Bootstrap replicates are constructed by selecting blocks of length $l$ randomly with replacement among the blocks of observations. The procedures are illustrated by using the sunspot numbers and some simulated data.