Relative return

Abstract: This paper proposes a novel stock price trend prediction system that can predict both stock price movement and its interval of growth (or decline) rate within the predefined prediction durations. It utilizes an unsupervised heuristic algorithm to cut raw transaction data of each stock into multiple clips with the predefined fixed length and classifies them into four main classes (Up, Down, Flat, and Unknown) according to the shapes of their close prices. The clips in Up and Down can be further classified into different levels reflecting the extents of their growth (or decline) rates with respect to both close price and relative return rate. The features of clips include their prices and technical indices. The prediction models are trained from these clips by a combination of random forests, imbalance learning and feature selection. Evaluations on the seven-year Shenzhen Growth Enterprise Market (China) transaction data show that the proposed system can make effective predictions, is robust to the market volatility, and outperforms some existing methods in terms of accuracy and return per trade.

Abstract: We develop a unifying framework for optimal income taxation in multi-sector economies with general patterns of externalities. Agents in this model are characterized by an N-dimensional skill vector corresponding to intrinsic abilities in N potentially externality-causing activities. The private return to each activity depends on individual skill and an aggregate activity-specific return, which is a fully general function of the economy-wide distribution of activity-specific efforts. We show that the N dimensional heterogeneity can be collapsed to a one-dimensional, endogenous statistic sufficient for screening. The optimal tax schedule features a multiplicative income specific correction to an otherwise standard tax formula. Because externalities change the relative returns to different activities, corrective taxes induce changes in the across activity allocation of effort. These relative return effects cause the optimal correction to diverge, in general, from the Pigouvian tax that would align private and social returns. We characterize this divergence and its implications for the shape of the tax schedule both generally and in a number of applications, including externality free economies, increasing and decreasing returns to scale, zero-sum activities such as bargaining or rent extraction, and positive or negative spillovers.

Abstract: I extend the model of Merton (1981) to multiple factors and derive a general expression for the value of a market timer's forecast. The model implies a measure of total performance that aggregates a manager's selection and timing ability. I develop return-based parametric tests that provide consistent estimates of the performance measures. These tests are applied to a sample of balanced mutual funds, to assess their ability to successfully forecast the relative return on stocks, bonds, and a riskless asset. On aggregate, the timing value of balanced funds is negative and insignificant. After-fee total performance is negative at the fund-level.

Abstract: Elasticity of demand and flexibility of prices. — Relative cost of production and relative efficiency of organization, 359. — Laws of relative cost and relative return as contrasted with laws of cost and laws of return, 360. — Typical equations to the law of supply, 364. — The statistical derivation of the law of supply, 367. — A moving equilibrium of demand and supply, 368.