Order statistic

Abstract: We consider the problem of setting approximate confidence intervals for a single parameter θ in a multiparameter family. The standard approximate intervals based on maximum likelihood theory, , can be quite misleading. In practice, tricks based on transformations, bias corrections, and so forth, are often used to improve their accuracy. The bootstrap confidence intervals discussed in this article automatically incorporate such tricks without requiring the statistician to think them through for each new application, at the price of a considerable increase in computational effort. The new intervals incorporate an improvement over previously suggested methods, which results in second-order correctness in a wide variety of problems. In addition to parametric families, bootstrap intervals are also developed for nonparametric situations.

Abstract: A new recursive algorithm is proposed for jointly estimating the time-varying number of targets and their states from a sequence of observation sets in the presence of data association uncertainty, detection uncertainty, noise, and false alarms. The approach involves modelling the respective collections of targets and measurements as random finite sets and applying the probability hypothesis density (PHD) recursion to propagate the posterior intensity, which is a first-order statistic of the random finite set of targets, in time. At present, there is no closed-form solution to the PHD recursion. This paper shows that under linear, Gaussian assumptions on the target dynamics and birth process, the posterior intensity at any time step is a Gaussian mixture. More importantly, closed-form recursions for propagating the means, covariances, and weights of the constituent Gaussian components of the posterior intensity are derived. The proposed algorithm combines these recursions with a strategy for managing the number of Gaussian components to increase efficiency. This algorithm is extended to accommodate mildly nonlinear target dynamics using approximation strategies from the extended and unscented Kalman filters

Abstract: We use the method of probability-weighted moments to derive estimators of the parameters and quantiles of the generalized extreme-value distribution. We investigate the properties of these estimators in large samples, via asymptotic theory, and in small and moderate samples, via computer simulation. Probability-weighted moment estimators have low variance and no severe bias, and they compare favorably with estimators obtained by the methods of maximum likelihood or sextiles. The method of probability-weighted moments also yields a convenient and powerful test of whether an extreme-value distribution is of Fisher-Tippett Type I, II, or III.