Option value

Abstract: This paper studies the optimal timing of investment in an irreversible project where the benefits from the project and the investment cost follow continuous-time stochastic processes The optimal time to invest and an explicit formula for the value of the option to invest are derived The rule "invest if benefits exceed costs" does not properly account for the option value of waitingSimulations show that this option value can be significant, and that for surprisingly reasonable parameter values it may be optimal to wait until benefits are twice the investment cost Finally, we perform comparative static analysis on the valuation formula and on the rule for when to invest

Abstract: This paper studies the optimal timing of investment in an irreversible project where the benefits from the project and the investment cost follow continuous-time stochastic processes. The optimal time to invest and an explicit formula for the value of the option to invest are derived. The rule "invest if benefits exceed costs" does not properly account for the option value of waiting.Simulations show that this option value can be significant, and that for surprisingly reasonable parameter values it may be optimal to wait until benefits are twice the investment cost. Finally, we perform comparative static analysis on the valuation formula and on the rule for when to invest.

Abstract: Despite its importance to economic growth and the evolution of market structure, the investment behavior of firms, industries, and countries remains poorly understood. This paper has several objectives. First, it reviews some basic models of irreversible investment to illustrate the option-like characteristics of investment opportunities, and to show how optimal investment rules can be obtained from methods of option pricing, or alternatively from dynamic programming. Second, it discusses the implication of irreversibility for the empirical analysis of investment behavior. Finally, it discusses briefly some of the implications that the irreversibility of investment may have for policy. For example, policies that stabilize prices or exchange rates may be effective ways of stimulating investment.

Abstract: The multinational corporation is a network of activities located in different countries. The value of this network derives from the opportunity to benefit from uncertainty through the coordination of subsidiaries which are geographically dispersed. We model this coordination as the operating flexibility to shift production between two manufacturing plants located in different countries. A stochastic dynamic programming model treats explicitly this flexibility as equivalent to owning an option, the value of which is dependent upon the real exchange rate. The model is extended to analyze hysteresis effects and within-country growth options. We show that the management of across-border coordination has led to changes in the heuristic rules used for performance evaluation and transfer pricing.