TL;DR: In this paper, the influence of surface evaporation upon rainfall and low-level flow in regional simulations is analyzed with the University of Utah Local Area Model (ULAM) by nudging boundary values and large internal scales of the local model toward values produced by the Nested Grid Model (NCEP/NOAA) initial analyses and forecasts archived at 6-h intervals.
Abstract: Regional summertime atmospheric conditions of 1993 are analyzed with the University of Utah Local Area Model (ULAM) by nudging boundary values and large internal scales of the local model toward values produced by the Nested Grid Model (NCEP/NOAA) initial analyses and forecasts archived at 6-h intervals. The approach allows the local ULAM to develop finer-scale structures in the precipitation and circulation forecasts than those resolved by the NGM. The study focuses on the influence of surface evaporation upon rainfall and low-level flow in regional simulations. Much of the rainfall simulated in the control experiment occurred from the late afternoon to early morning hours, with a pronounced midday minimum over the flood region. The moisture flux from the south due to the low-level jet (LLJ) provides much of the moisture source for the precipitation, and it is shown that the net moisture influx is significantly larger than the rainfall rate over the flood region. As a consequence, modifications ...
TL;DR: The eta coordinate regional model has been run twice daily at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, previously the National Meteorological Center) as the NCEP's "early" operational model as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Since 9 June 1993, the eta coordinate regional model has been run twice daily at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, previously the National Meteorological Center) as the NCEP's “early” operational model. Its performance is regularly monitored in a variety of ways, with particular attention given to precipitation forecasts. Throughout this period, the eta model has demonstrated significantly increased accuracy in forecasting daily precipitation amounts compared to NCEP's Nested Grid Model (NGM). The model has shown a smaller but equally consistent advantage in skill against that of NCEP's global spectral model. Precipitation scores of these three operational models for the 6-month period March–August 1995 are presented. This interval is chosen because the 6-month-long periods September–February and March–August have been used in previous model comparisons and because an upgraded version of the eta model, run at 48-km resolution, was also regularly executed twice daily during the March...
TL;DR: In this paper, the regional atmospheric numerical weather prediction Eta model was applied to validate the wind forecasts for wind power plants on the island of Gotland, Sweden, and two sets of ETA model forecasts were made: one with a coarse resolution of 22 kilometres and another with a nested grid of 3.5 kilometres.
TL;DR: This paper presents consensus forecasts based on the limited-area fine-mesh (LFM) model and the nested grid model (NGM) for the three-year period 1990–...
Abstract: Consensus forecasts are computed by averaging model output statistics (MOS) forecasts based on the limited-area fine-mesh (LFM) model and the nested grid model (NGM) for the three-year period 1990–...
TL;DR: The Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) is described in this article, where three components of the RAFS are the regional optimum interpolation analysis, the Baer-Tribbia nonlinear normal mode initialization, and the nested grid model.
Abstract: The three components of the Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) are described. This system was implemented in March 1985 to supplement guidance from NMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM), especially for precipitation forecasting. The three components of the RAFS are the regional optimum interpolation analysis, the Baer–Tribbia nonlinear normal mode initialization, and the nested grid model—a grid point, primitive-equation model in sigma coordinates. Postprocessing of model forecasts and plans for system improvement are also discussed.