Mount Rainier

Abstract: Catastrophic collapses of steep volcano flanks threaten many populated regions, and understanding factors that promote collapse could save lives and property. Large collapses of hydrothermally al- tered parts of Mount Rainier have generated far-traveled debris flows; future flows would threaten densely populated parts of the Puget Sound region. We evaluate edifice collapse hazards at Mount Rainier using a new three-dimensional slope stability method incorporating detailed geologic mapping and subsurface geophysical imaging to de- termine distributions of strong (fresh) and weak (altered) rock. Quan- titative three-dimensional slope stability calculations reveal that size- able flank collapse ( .0.1 km 3 ) is promoted by voluminous, weak, hydrothermally altered rock situated high on steep slopes. These con- ditions exist only on Mount Rainier's upper west slope, consistent with the Holocene debris-flow history. Widespread alteration on lower flanks or concealed in regions of gentle slope high on the edifice does not greatly facilitate collapse. Our quantitative stability assessment method can also provide useful hazard predictions using reconnais- sance geologic information and is a potentially rapid and inexpensive new tool for aiding volcano hazard assessments.

Abstract: The Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake in central Alaska of 3 November 2002 triggered earthquakes across western North America at epicentral distances of up to at least 3660 km. We describe the spatial and temporal development of triggered activity in California and the Pacific Northwest, focusing on Mount Rainier, the Geysers geothermal field, the Long Valley caldera, and the Coso geothermal field. The onset of triggered seismicity at each of these areas began during the Love and Raleigh waves of the Mw 7.9 wave train, which had dominant periods of 15 to 40 sec, indicating that earthquakes were triggered locally by dynamic stress changes due to low-frequency surface wave arrivals. Swarms during the wave train continued for 4 min (Mount Rainier) to 40 min (the Geysers) after the surface wave arrivals and were characterized by spasmodic bursts of small (M 2.5) earthquakes. Dy- namic stresses within the surface wave train at the time of the first triggered earth- quakes ranged from 0.01 MPa (Coso) to 0.09 MPa (Mount Rainier). In addition to the swarms that began during the surface wave arrivals, Long Valley caldera and Mount Rainier experienced unusually large seismic swarms hours to days after the Denali fault earthquake. These swarms seem to represent a delayed response to the Denali fault earthquake. The occurrence of spatially and temporally distinct swarms of triggered seismicity at the same site suggests that earthquakes may be triggered by more than one physical process.

Abstract: ....................................................................^^

Abstract: Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the "false-alarm problem"-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and precipitation, as well as magmatic activity and eruptions. (3) Risk of collapse begins with initial magmatic activity and increases as intrusion proceeds. An archetypal debris flow from volcanic terrain occurred in Colombia with a tectonic earthquake (M 6.4) in 1994. The Rio Paez conveyed a catastrophic wave of debris flow over 100 kilometers, coalesced from multiple slides of surficial material weakened both by weathering and by hydrothermal alteration in a large strato-volcano. Similar seismogenic flows occurred in Mexico in 1920 (M ∼6.5), Chile in 1960 (M 9.2), and Ecuador in 1987 (M 6.1 and 6.9). Velocities of wave fronts in two examples were 60 to 90 km/hr (17-25 meters per second) over the initial 30 kilometers. Volcano flank and sector collapses may produce untransformed debris avalanches, as occurred initially at Mount St. Helens in 1980. However, at least as common is direct transformation of the failed mass to a debris flow. At two other volcanoes in the Cascade Range-Mount Rainier and Mount Baker-rapid transformation and high mobility were typical of most of at least 15 Holocene flows. This danger exists downstream from many stratovolcanoes worldwide; the population at risk is near 150,000 and increasing at Mount Rainier. The first step in preventing future catastrophes is documenting past flows. Deposits of some debris flows, however, can be mistaken for those of less-mobile debris avalanches on the basis of mounds formed by buoyed megaclasts. Megaclasts may record only the proximal phase of a debris flow that began as a debris avalanche. Runout may have extended much farther, and thus future flow mobility may be underestimated. Processes and behaviors of megaclast-bearing paleoflows are best inferred from the intermegaclast matrix. Mitigation strategy can respond to volcanic flows regardless of type and trigger by: (1) Avoidance: Limit settlement in flow pathways to numbers that can be evacuated after event warnings (flow is occurring).