Abstract: The housing market is of central concern to monetary policy makers. To achieve the dual goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment, monetary policy makers must understand the role that housing plays in the monetary transmission mechanism if they are to set policy instruments appropriately. In this paper, I examine what we know about the role of housing in the monetary transmission mechanism and then explore the implications of this knowledge for the conduct of monetary policy. I begin with a theoretical and empirical review of the main housing-related channels of the transmission mechanism. These channels include the ways interest rates directly influence the user cost of housing capital, expectations of future house-price movements, and housing supply; and indirectly influence the real economy through standard wealth effects from house prices, balance sheet, credit-channel effects on consumer spending, and balance sheet, credit-channel effects on housing demand. I then consider the interaction of financial stability with the monetary transmission mechanism, and discuss the ways in which the housing sector might be a source of financial instability, and whether such instability could affect the ability of a central bank to stabilize the overall macroeconomy. I conclude with a discussion of two key policy issues. First, how can monetary policy makers deal with the uncertainty with regard to housing-related monetary transmission mechanisms? And second, how can monetary policy best respond to fluctuations in asset prices, especially house prices, and to possible asset-price bubbles?

Abstract: This paper surveys the empirical analyses that examine the effects of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ’s) quantitative easing policy (QEP), which was implemented from March 2001 through March 2006. The survey confirms a clear effect whereby the commitment to maintain the QEP fostered the expectations that the zero interest rate would continue into the future, thereby lowering the yield curve centering on the short- to medium-term range. There were also phases in which an increase in the current account balances held by financial institutions at the BOJ bolstered this expectation. While the results were mixed as to whether expansion of the monetary base and altering the composition of the BOJ’s balance sheet led to portfolio rebalancing, generally this effect, if any, was smaller than that stemming from the commitment. When viewing the QEP’s impact on Japan’s economy through various transmission channels, many of the analyses suggest that the QEP created an accommodative environment in terms of corporate financing. In particular, the QEP contained financial institutions’ funding costs from the market and staved off financial institutions’ funding uncertainties. The QEP’s effect on raising aggregate demand and prices was often limited, due largely to the then progressing corporate balance-sheet adjustment, as well as the zero bound constraint on interest rates.

Abstract: This book by a leading authority on monetary policy offers a unique view of the subject from the perspectives of both scholar and practitioner. Frederic Mishkin is not only an academic expert in the field but also a high-level policymaker. He is especially well positioned to discuss the changes in the conduct of monetary policy in recent years, in particular the turn to inflation targeting. Monetary Policy Strategy describes his work over the last ten years, offering published papers, new introductory material, and a summing up, "Everything You Wanted to Know about Monetary Policy Strategy, But Were Afraid to Ask," which reflects on what we have learned about monetary policy over the last thirty years. Mishkin blends theory, econometric evidence, and extensive case studies of monetary policy in advanced and emerging market and transition economies. Throughout, his focus is on these key areas: the importance of price stability and a nominal anchor; fiscal and financial preconditions for achieving price stability; central bank independence as an additional precondition; central bank accountability; the rationale for inflation targeting; the optimal inflation target; central bank transparency and communication; and the role of asset prices in monetary policy.Frederic S. Mishkin is Alfred Lerner Professor of Banking and Financial Institutions at the Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a past Executive Vice President and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and after finishing this book was appointed a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He is the author of The Next Great Globalization: How Disadvantaged Nations Can Harness Their Financial Systems to Get Rich and other books.

Abstract: I consider some of the leading arguments for assigning an important role to tracking the growth of monetary aggregates when making decisions about monetary policy. First, I consider whether ignoring money means returning to the conceptual framework that allowed the high inflation of the 1970s. Second, I consider whether models of inflation determination with no role for money are incomplete, or inconsistent with elementary economic principles. Third, I consider the implications for monetary policy strategy of the empirical evidence for a long-run relationship between money growth and inflation. (Here I give particular attention to the implications of "two-pillar Phillips curves" of the kind proposed by Gerlach (2004).) And fourth, I consider reasons why a monetary policy strategy based solely on short-run inflation forecasts derived from a Phillips curve may not be a reliable way of controlling inflation. I argue that none of these considerations provide a compelling reason to assign a prominent role to monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy.

Abstract: With this work, I aim to enrich the knowledge about the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic with empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on bank lending. Using a panel of quarterly time series for Czech commercial banks for the period 1996–2001, I study the overall effect of monetary policy changes on the growth rate of loans and the characteristics of the supply of loans. The characterization of the credit market's supply side allows us to make inferences on the operativeness of the credit channel (the bank lending channel and the broad credit channel) of the monetary transmission mechanism. I find that changes in monetary policy alter the growth rate of loans, with considerably stronger magnitude in the period 1999–2001 than in the period 1996–1998. From the analysis intended to capture the characteristics of the supply of loans, I conclude that the lending channel was operative in the period 1996–1998: I find cross-sectional differences in the lending reactions to monetary policy shocks due to the degree of capitalization and to liquidity. For the subsequent period 1999–2001, the results also show distributional effects of monetary policy due to bank size and its bank's proportion of classified loans. In the context of steadily decreasing interest rates, this can bolster the supposition of financial frictions between borrowers and lenders and hence, that of an operative broad credit channel.

Abstract: At central banks around the world, forecasts have come to play an increasingly important role both in policy deliberations and in communications with the public. The most striking examples are the Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank, Norway’s Norges Bank, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, all of which conduct policy on the basis of a procedure sometimes referred to as “inflation-forecast targeting” (Svensson, 1997, 1999). Under this approach, the central bank constructs quantitative projections of the economy’s expected future evolution based on the way in which it intends to control short-term interest rates, and public discussion of those projections is a critical part of the way in which the bank justifies the conduct of policy to the public. What accounts for the appeal of a forecast-targeting approach, and should it be adopted more widely or more explicitly? I begin by reviewing the long-running debate between the proponents of monetary rules, intended to ensure confidence in the value of money over time, and the proponents of discretionary monetary policy, aimed at stabilizing the real economy. I will argue that inflation-forecast targeting represents a powerful synthesis of the two approaches; in particular, it is an improvement both over simpler rules, such as targeting a monetary aggregate, and over weaker versions of inflation targeting. I shall also argue that a much more extensive communication policy is crucial to escaping from the limitations of the traditional alternatives of rigid rules or rudderless discretion. I will then explore some common questions that arise about inflation-forecast targeting. Should only the inflation forecast matter, and if not, in what way should forecasts of other economic variables affect policy decisions? What assumptions about the course of future policy should be used in constructing the quantitative projections that are presented to the public? Finally, given that economic forecasts

Abstract: This paper reviews the design and performance of monetary policy in South Africa (SA) during 1994-2004. Quantitative indexes of transparency reveal a strong rise in the transparency and accountability of monetary policy between 1994 and 2004. Inflation and interest rate expectations data and forward interest rate data are used to demonstrate the increased credibility and reasonable predictability of monetary policy since adopting inflation targeting in 2000. The SA Reserve Bank's view on monetary policy transmission channels is discussed, and its recent forecasting performance is evaluated. We find that monetary policy decisions taken in response to external and domestic shocks under inflation targeting have significantly improved relative to the preceding framework, though data quality has been a constraint. Further, inflation targeting has not disadvantaged potential investment in terms of the level of tax-adjusted real interest rates. Finally, the important role for complementary policies to support monetary policy is motivated.

Abstract: The housing market is of central concern to monetary policy makers. To achieve the dual goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment, monetary policy makers must understand the role that housing plays in the monetary transmission mechanism if they are to set policy instruments appropriately. In this paper, I examine what we know about the role of housing in the monetary transmission mechanism and then explore the implications of this knowledge for the conduct of monetary policy. I begin with a theoretical and empirical review of the main housing-related channels of the transmission mechanism. These channels include the ways interest rates directly influence the user cost of housing capital, expectations of future house-price movements, and housing supply; and indirectly influence the real economy through standard wealth effects from house prices, balance sheet, credit-channel effects on consumer spending, and balance sheet, credit-channel effects on housing demand. I then consider the interaction of financial stability with the monetary transmission mechanism, and discuss the ways in which the housing sector might be a source of financial instability, and whether such instability could affect the ability of a central bank to stabilize the overall macroeconomy. I conclude with a discussion of two key policy issues. First, how can monetary policy makers deal with the uncertainty with regard to housing-related monetary transmission mechanisms? And second, how can monetary policy best respond to fluctuations in asset prices, especially house prices, and to possible asset-price bubbles?

Abstract: A widely applied approach to measure the size of the shadow economy, known as the "monetary method" or the "currency approach," is based on econometric estimates of the demand for money. These estimates are used to get the currency held by economic agents in excess of the amount they need to finance registered transactions. This excess of currency multiplied by the income-velocity of circulation (assumed to be equal in the registered and shadow economies) gives a measure of the hidden GDP. This paper shows that the monetary method only produces coherent estimates if the income-elasticity of the demand for currency is one and suggests a way to correct the estimated size of the shadow economy when such elasticity is not one. The correction is applied to existent measures for different countries.

Abstract: This paper exploits a panel dataset comprising 1,565 banks in 20 emerging countries during 1989-2001 and compares the response of the volume of loans and the rates on loans and deposits to various measures of monetary conditions across domestic and foreign banks. It also looks for systematic differences in the behavior of domestic and foreign banks during periods of financial distress and tranquil times. Using differences in bank ownership as a proxy for financial constraints, the paper finds weak evidence that foreign banks have a lower sensitivity of credit to monetary conditions relative to their domestic competitors, with the differences driven by banks with lower asset liquidity and/or capitalization. The lending and deposit rates of foreign banks tend to be smoother during periods of financial distress. However, the differences across domestic and foreign banks do not appear to be strong. These results provide weak support to the existence of supply-side effects in credit markets and suggest that foreign bank entry in emerging countries may have contributed somewhat to stability in credit markets.

Abstract: We describe two examples which illustrate in different ways how money and credit may be useful in the conduct of monetary policy. Our first example shows how monitoring money and credit can help anchor private sector expectations about inflation. Our second example shows that a monetary policy that focuses too narrowly on inflation may inadvertently contribute to welfare-reducing boom-bust cycles in real and financial variables. The example is of some interest because it is based on a monetary policy rule fit to aggregate data. We show that a policy of monetary tightening when credit growth is strong can mitigate the problems identified in our second example.

Abstract: A central bank is the term used to describe the authority responsible for policies that affect a country’s supply of money and credit. More specifically, a central bank uses its tools of monetary policy—open market operations, discount window lending, changes in reserve requirements—to affect short-term interest rates and the monetary base (currency held by the public plus bank reserves) and to achieve important policy goals.

Abstract: In this paper we ask a question about the impact of monetary policy on total bank lending in the presence of a developed market for foreign currency denominated loans and potential substitutability between domestic and foreign currency loans. Our results, based on a panel of three biggest Central European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) confirm the existence of the substitution effect between these loans. Restrictive monetary policy leads to a decrease in domestic currency lending but simultaneously accelerates foreign currency denominated loans. This makes the central bank's job harder with respect to providing both, monetary and financial stability.

Abstract: Introduction 1. Money and Credit 2. Banks and Payments 3. The Central Bank and the State 4. International Settlement Systems 5. Monetary Policy Strategies

Abstract: Many macroeconomists and policymakers have debated the effectiveness of further injection of base money at zero short-term interest rates. This paper takes up the Japanese experience of the quantitative monetary-easing policy (QMEP) that was conducted in 2001—2006. In particular we measure the effect of the QMEP on aggregate output and prices, and examine its transmission mechanism, based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology. To ascertain the transmission mechanism, we include several financial market variables in the VAR system. The results show that the QMEP increased aggregate output through the stock price channel. This evidence suggests that further injection of base money is effective even when short-term nominal interest rates are at zero.

Abstract: The European Central Bank has assigned a special role to money in its two pillar strategy and has received much criticism for this decision. The case against including money in the central bank’s interest rate rule is based on a st andard model of the monetary transmission process that underlies many contributions to research on monetary policy in the last two decades. In this paper, we develop a justifi cation for including money in the interest rate rule by allowing for imperfect knowledge regarding unobservables such as potential output and equilibrium interest rates. We formulate a novel characterization of ECB-style monetary cross-checking and show that it can generate substantial stabilization benefits in the event of persistent policy mis perceptions regarding potential output.

Abstract: The paper analyses the monetary policy operations of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). We distinguish the pattern of monetary policy operations of the liquidity providing central banks of the large industrialized countries (creditor central banks) and the liquidity absorbing central banks of emerging market economies (debtor central banks). Many debtor central banks provide liquidity through foreign exchange intervention in reaction to foreign exchange inflows. If the respective liquidity expansion is regarded as a threat to domestic price and financial stability, liquidity is partly absorbed through sterilization operations. The paper finds that most MENA countries are debtor central banks due to a general pattern of excessive liquidity creation as well as due to country specific reasons.

Abstract: Currency crises, accompanied by large devaluation, tend to have significant impacts on the domestic economy. If the exchange rate also depreciates in real terms, the economy can take advantage of the export price competitiveness to promote its exports. In contrast, if the currency devaluation induces an increase in domestic inflation, the currency value in real terms will return toward the pre-crisis level, which results in a loss of the export price competitiveness and, hence, a slow recovery from the severe economic downturn. This paper analyzes the degree of domestic price responses to the exchange rate changes in crisis-hit countries in East Asian and Latina American countries and Turkey in order to reveal why the post-crisis inflation performance was very different across countries. The structural vector autoregression (VAR) technique is applied to examining exchange rate pass-through. The degree of exchange rate pass-through is found to be higher in Latin American countries and Turkey than in East Asian countries with a notable exception of Indonesia. In particular, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Argentina show a strong response of CPI to the exchange rate shock. More noteworthy is that excessive supply of base money played an important role in increasing the domestic inflation rate in Indonesia, while such effect is not observed in other countries, which indicates the importance of credible monetary policy committed to price stability in order to prevent the post-crisis inflation. Shock transmission from import prices or PPI to CPI is quite large in Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey. This finding implies that the channel of shocks at different stage of pricing chain may be an additional factor in high domestic inflation.

Abstract: This paper uses annual data for the period 1954-2002 to investigate the causal relationship between money growth, inflation, currency devaluation and economic growth in Indonesia. Three testable hypotheses are investigated: (1) does the money supply growth Granger-cause inflation? (2) does currency devaluation Grangercause inflation? (3) does inflation affect economic growth? The empirical results suggest that there existed a short-run bi-directional causality between money supply growth and inflation and between currency devaluation and inflation. For the complete sample period, the causality running from infla tion to narrow money supply growth was stronger than that from narrow money supply growth to inflation. This result is consistent with the view that in a high-or hyperinflationary economy, inflation does have a feedback effect on money supply growth and this generates a self-sustaining inflationary process. The short-run bi-directional causality between currency devaluation and inflation was, however, weak or not so robust for the complete or any shorter sample period. On the relationship between inflation and economic growth, the results suggest that there was no short-run causality from inflation to economic growth for the complete or any sub-sample period. JEL classification: C50, C52

Abstract: This paper attempts to aggregate and summarise fresh results concerning the monetary transmission mechanism in Hungary Within a research project at the MNB nine studies have been published investigating the channels through which Hungarian monetary policy affects the economy We create a framework for synthesising particular results based on Mishkin’s (1996) classification We analyse how aggregate demand is affected through those channels Our conclusion is that during the past ten years monetary policy did exert a measurable influence on real activity and prices The dominance of the exchange rate channel explains why prices respond faster and output responds more mildly than in closed developed economies like the US or the euro area We expect that after adopting the euro the absence of exchange rate will be compensated by the fact that the interest rate channel will work through foreign demand as well Therefore, no significant asymmetries can be expected inside the euro area in terms of monetary transmission

Abstract: Banks are an important source of funding in economies all around the world, making it vital to understand how banks directly and indirectly affect funding through capital markets. Few issues have perhaps been as controversial as the appropriate scope of bank activities and whether banks should participate directly in capital market activities, providing both lending and other services, such as underwriting. We review the arguments and theoretical models that consider the consequences of commercial banks engaging in investment banking activities, and we examine the empirical evidence on the potential for conflicts of interest, which focuses on the pricing and long run performance of debt and equity underwritten securities, both in the United States and internationally. A related topic is whether investment banks and commercial banks can co-exist as underwriters. We summarize the theoretical and empirical literature, focusing on the effect that bank lending has had on underwriter fees and the ability of banks to win underwriting mandates, as well as how investment banks have adapted to commercial bank entry into investment banking. We also consider the indirect role of commercial banks in capital markets, providing a summary of banks’ ability to signal the quality of borrowers through their decisions to originate and sell loans. Finally we examine related topics, such as the effects of banks holding equity and engaging in venture capital activities, and we suggest research directions.

Abstract: Ibeabuchi at the time of going to press was a Deputy Director in the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Abstract: The article uses a sample of four state-owned commercial banks, ten joint-share commercial banks, and all foreign banks in China to examine the changes in market structure and financial performance (profitability) of Chinese commercial banks. The market structure appears to have some influence on the performance of Chinese commercial banks. There are other factors affecting the performance of China's bank market. Although the concentration ratios and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index indicate the monopolistic nature of China's bank system, which is in a state of monopolistic competition or moderately concentrated now, foreign banks seem to have had some marginal effects on the Chinese banking market.