Abstract: We provide a comprehensive review of China’s financial system, and explore directions of future development. First, the financial system has been dominated by a large banking sector. In recent years banks have made considerable progress in reducing the amount of non-performing loans and improving their efficiency. It is important that these efforts are continued. Second, the role of the stock market in allocating resources in the economy has been limited and ineffective. Further development of China’s stock market and other financial markets is the most important task. Third, the most successful part of the financial system, in terms of supporting the growth of the overall economy, is a non-standard sector that consists of alternative financing channels, governance mechanisms, and institutions. This sector should co-exist with banks and markets in the future in order to continue to support the growth of the Hybrid Sector (non-state, non-listed firms). Finally, in order to sustain stable economic growth, China should aim to prevent and halt damaging financial crises, including a banking sector crisis, a real estate or stock market crash, and a “twin crisis” in the currency market and banking sector.

Abstract: Fuel and energy sector serves as the backbone of the economy. The segment provides support, not only for the economic development of the country by showing positive trends towards the sectoral growth, but also serves as a steering wheel for the growth of manufacturing, trading and service sector. It provides significant inputs for production, trade and service. A general concept prevails that the financial leverage is helpful to enhance the financial performance of the companies. For measuring the impact of financial leverage on the financial health of the companies, it is essential to know whether a positive relationship exists between the financial leverage and financial performance or not? So, this study is intended to test the hypothesis and to measure a relationship between the financial leverage and the financial performance of the fuel and energy sector in Pakistan. The paper also examines the generalization that firms with higher profitability may choose high leverage by using various statistical tools. The findings of the study show a positive relationship between the financial leverage and the financial performance of the companies by accepting the alternate hypothesis H 1 and Ho is rejected. The results of the study confirm that the firms having higher profitability may improve their financial performance by having high levels of financial leverage. The study provides evidence by evaluating different facts. It reveals that the players of the fuel and energy in Pakistan can improve at their financial performance by employing the financial leverage and can arrive at a sustainable future growth by making vital decisions about the choice of their optimal capital structure. Key Words: Financial leverage, Firms’ Performance, Key Indicators- Financial Ratios, Fuel and Energy Sector in Pakistan

Abstract: Empirical investigation of the external finance premium has been conducted on the margin between internal finance and bank borrowing or equities but little attention has been given to corporate bonds, especially for the emerging Asian market. In this paper, we hypothesize that balance sheet indicators of creditworthiness could affect the external finance premium for bonds as they do for premia in other markets. Using bond-specific and firm-specific data for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand during 1995–2009 we find that firms with better financial health face lower external finance premia in all countries. When we introduce firm-level heterogeneity, we show that financial variables appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for financially constrained firms. Finally, when we examine the effects of the 1997–1998 Asian crisis and the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, we find that the sensitivity of the premium is greater for constrained firms during the Asian crisis compared to other times.

Abstract: Purpose – The issue of which financial initial conditions are necessary to materialize the benefits of financial globalization remains open to debate in the literature. In this paper, we try to put some empirical structure on the concept of financial threshold conditions in order to give policymakers guidance on the Kose et al. (2011) and Henry (2007) hypothesis. Its object is to assess if financial benefits of financial globalization are questionable until greater domestic financial development has taken place in African countries.Design/Methodology/Approach – In framing the financial dimension in a more concrete and tractable manner, we examine the concerns of how domestic financial initial dynamics of depth (economic and financial systems), efficiency (banking and financial systems), activity (banking and financial systems) and size, play out in the financial development benefits of financial globalization. The estimation approach consists of assessing the impact of financial globalization through-out the conditional distributions of domestic financial development dynamics. Findings – The introduction of previously missing financial dimensions into the debate generates a number of important findings. Only financial initial (threshold) conditions of size are necessary to materialize the benefits of financial globalization. While financial depth only partially validates the hypothesis, dynamics of efficiency and activity (credit) do not confirm the hypothesis.Practical Implications – Addressing the issue of surplus liquidity in African financial institutions could improve the benefits of financial size and potentially reverse the trends of financial efficiency and activity. Depending on the context of sampled countries, the appropriate role of policy has always been either to stem the tide of capital flows or encourage them. Policymakers who have been viewing their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective for benefits in growth (finance) might be getting the financial dynamics badly wrong. Originality/Value – Blanket financial development policies may not reap the financial benefits of financial globalization until domestic financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size are critically considered. The introduction of the last three previously missing components in the literature sheds more light on the globalization-development nexus.

Abstract: This paper describes the construction of a financial stress index. Our index incorporates the level, volatility, and co-movement of a variety of financial series, rather than a single dimension of the data. To determine which time periods are ones of notable financial stress, and thus the relevant for determining the role of the level, volatility, and co-movement of our financial series, we use actions taken by policymakers. In addition to describing the construction of our financial stress index, we spend time discussing issues relevant to the general construction of stress indexes such as how a financial stress index differs from a financial conditions index, the challenges of combining different financial series into a single measure, and the role historical experience plays in index construction.

Abstract: This essay, which is based in part on the keynote speech I delivered in October at the European Central Bank conference on regulation of financial services, examines how the law can help to control financial chaos. The essay argues that any regulatory framework for achieving that goal will be imperfect and have tradeoffs.

Abstract: Methods and systems may be used to provide information regarding investment holdings using point-of-sale (POS) data. To do so, POS datasets are aggregated from a plurality of POS terminals. Market data sets are identified from the POS datasets corresponding to a given market. Market trend data is generated from the market dataset, and an investment holding is identified whose price is related to an aspect of the market trend data. An analysis of the market trend data is performed to determine an estimated future price of the investment holding.

Abstract: The academic literature has regularly argued that market discipline can support regulatory authority mechanisms in ensuring banking sector stability. This includes, amongst other things, using forward-looking market prices to identify those credit institutions that are most at risk of failure. The paper's key aim is to analyse whether market investors signalled potential problems at Northern Rock in advance of the bank announcing that it had negotiated emergency lending facilities at the Bank of England in September 2007. A further aim of the paper is to examine the signalling qualities of four financial market instruments (credit default swap spreads, subordinated debt spreads, implied volatility from options prices and equity measures of bank risk) so as to explore both the relative and individual qualities of each. Therefore, the paper's findings contribute to the market discipline literature on using market data to identify bank risk-taking and enhancing supervisory monitoring. Our analysis suggests that private market participants did signal impending financial problems at Northern Rock. These findings lend some empirical support to proposals for the supervisory authorities to use market information more extensively to improve the identification of troubled banks. The paper identifies equities as providing the timeliest and clearest signals of bank condition, whilst structural factors appear to hamper the signalling qualities of subordinated debt spreads and credit default swap spreads. The paper also introduces idiosyncratic implied volatility as a potentially useful early warning metric for supervisory authorities to observe.

Abstract: A simulation of high-frequency market data is performed with the Genoa Artificial Stock Market. Heterogeneous agents trade a risky asset in exchange for cash. Agents have zero intelligence and issue random limit or market orders depending on their budget constraints. The price is cleared by means of a limit order book. A renewal order-generation process is used having a waiting-time distribution between consecutive orders that follows a Weibull law, in line with previous studies. The simulation results show that this mechanism can reproduce fat-tailed distributions of returns without ad-hoc behavioral assumptions on agents. In the simulated trade process, when the order waiting-times are exponentially distributed, trade waiting times are exponentially distributed. However, if order waiting times follow a Weibull law, analogous results do not hold. These findings are interpreted in terms of a random thinning of the order renewal process. This behavior is compared with order and trade durations taken from real financial data.

Abstract: This paper offers a new approach to measuring organizational financial health based on the financial sustainability model. The objective in introducing these new financial indicators is to enable nonprofits to better manage their financial health and more confidently assure their ongoing financial sustainability. Usable measures of solvency, liquidity, and financial flexibility are introduced. Some of these measures are identical to those already in use, some are adapted from other ratios, and yet others are newly-developed. Actual data from a human services nonprofit organization are used to illustrate calculation of these measures. These measures are also placed in general, immediate-term, short-term, and medium-term classes, category scores calculated, and these category scores are combined into a numerical financial health index value (Φ). C-suite managers and board members may use this single index value to gauge their organization’s financial health relative to the next three years of operations. Managers may choose to remedy poor financial health by targeting improvement in individual measures or categories, and may choose to adopt written liquidity, debt, and investments policies consistent with those targets.

Abstract: This research analyzes the influence of dispersion of valuations on financial markets, taking several aspects of real financial market into consideration (such as financial constraints, investment strategies and so on). As a result of intensive experiments in the market, we made the following findings: (1) Dispersion of fundamentalists' valuations has little effect on the market when financial constraints are absent; (2) When financial constraints — such as short-sale constraints — are introduced, certain situations arise in which deviations from fundamental values become larger, according to the level of the dispersion of valuations; (3) A passive investment strategy, as is consistent with traditional financial theory, is valid even when the introduction of financial constraints causes market prices to deviate significantly from fundamental values. These results contribute to clarifying the mechanism of price fluctuations in financial markets and are notable from both academic and practical view points.

Abstract: This paper develops a new financial stress measure (Cleveland Financial Stress Index, CFSI) that considers the supervisory objective of identifying risks to the stability of the financial system. The index provides a continuous signal of financial stress and broad coverage of the areas that could indicate it. The construction methodology uses daily public market data collected from different sectors of financial markets. A unique feature of the index is that it employs a dynamic weighting method that captures the changing relative importance of the different sectors of the financial system. This study shows how the index can be applied to monitoring and analyzing financial system conditions.

Abstract: The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for the Nigerian Stock Market (NSM) is explored using different statistical tests. The analyses use overall stock market returns collected over the period 2000–2010. It is shown that the NSM is not weak-form efficient which questions the benefits of the 2004 financial reforms. It is also shown that the degree of market inefficiency varies across the periods corresponding to the financial reforms and 2007 global financial crisis, for daily and monthly returns. The results are important to security analysts, investors, and security exchange regulatory agencies in their investment, stock market development, and policy-making decisions.

Abstract: The present invention is a console, system and method for providing an interface to a financial market trading system or to a financial market based gaming system. The invention enables the trader to trade on financial markets using an interface simulating known and popular games from the world of sports, arcade, games of chance, strategic games and the like.

Abstract: LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES PREFACE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1. Introduction 2. Financial Development, Financial Access, and its Relation with Economic Growth 3. Analytical Considerations 4. Financial Development: Empirical Evidence 5. Financial Access: Household Level Evidence 6. Financial Access: Sector and Segment Level Evidence 7. Indian Financial Sector: An International Comparison 8. Private Participation in the Banking Sector 9. Summary, Findings, and Policy Recommendations BIBLIOGRAPHY INDEX

Abstract: We develop a model of how information flows into a market, and derive algorithms for automatically detecting and explaining relevant events. We analyze data from twenty-two "political stock markets" (i.e., betting markets on political outcomes) on the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM). We prove that, under certain efficiency assumptions, prices in such betting markets will on average approach the correct outcomes over time, and show that IEM data conforms closely to the theory. We present a simple model of a betting market where information is revealed over time, and show a qualitative correspondence between the model and real market data. We also present an algorithm for automatically detecting significant events and generating semantic explanations of their origin. The algorithm operates by discovering significant changes in vocabulary on online news sources (using expected entropy loss) that align with major price spikes in related betting markets.

Abstract: We explore the role of monetary policy in a world of segmented financial markets, where only the agents who trade stocks encounter financial income risk. In such an economy, the welfare maximizing monetary policy attains the novel role of sharing the financial market risk traders face, among all agents in the economy. In order to do that, monetary policy reacts to financial market advances; it optimally expands in bad times for the financial markets and optimally tightens in good ones. A quantitative exercise shows large distributional losses for a 2% inflation targeting policy compared to the optimal policy, and also isolates risk sharing losses of similar magnitude with that of having business cycle fluctuations. In addition, our model suggests that optimal monetary policy is not concerned with stock price volatility, does not attempt to minimize it and the policy that does, involves welfare losses. It is though concerned, to some extent, with inflation stability, producing lower inflation volatility when compared to the constant money supply policy rule.

Abstract: The 2007 global financial crisis led to a chaotic financial environment characterized by highly uncertain and volatile stock markets. This created additional uncertainty about the fundamental value of shares and potentially increased the benefit of inside information. In this paper, we use event study methodology to examine whether Belgian corporate insiders were able to benefit from these turbulent market conditions. Given the large weight of financial institutions, the Belgian stock market was especially vulnerable to the financial crisis and provides an interesting environment to test this hypothesis. Our results show that, while insiders are generally able to earn abnormal returns, these returns are significantly higher during the years of the financial crisis.

Abstract: Informational constraints may turn the Merton Model for corporate credit risk impractical. Applying this framework to the Colombian financial sector is limited to four stock-market-listed firms; more than a hundred banking and non-banking firms are not listed.Within the same framework, firms’ debt spread over the risk-free rate may be considered as the market value of the sold put option that makes risky debt trade below default-risk-free debt. In this sense, under some supplementary but reasonable assumptions, this paper uses money market spreads implicit in sell/buy backs to infer default probabilities for local financial firms. Results comprise a richer set of (38) banking and non-banking firms. As expected, default probabilities are non-negligible, where the ratio of default-probability-to-leverage is lower for firms with access to lender-of-last-resort facilities.The approach is valuable since it allows for inferring forward-looking default probabilities in the absence of stock prices. Yet, two issues may limit the validity of results to serial and crosssection analysis: overvaluation of default probabilities due to (i) spreads containing non-credit risk factors, and (ii) systematic undervaluation of the firm’s value. However, cross-section assessments of default probabilities within a wider range of firms are vital for financial authorities’ decision making, and represent a major improvement in the implementation of the Merton Model in absence of equity market data.

Abstract: Recent years have witnessed the advancement of automated algorithmic trading systems as institutional solutions in the form of autobots, black box or expert advisors. However, little research has been done in this area with sufficient evidence to show the efficiency of these systems. This paper builds an automated trading system which implements an optimized genetic-algorithm neural-network (GANN) model with cybernetic concepts and evaluates the success using a modified value-at-risk (MVaR) framework. The cybernetic engine includes a circular causal feedback control feature and a developed golden-ratio estimator, which can be applied to any form of market data in the development of risk-pricing models. The paper applies the Euro and Yen forex rates as data inputs. It is shown that the technique is useful as a trading and volatility control system for institutions including central bank monetary policy as a risk-minimizing strategy. Furthermore, the results are achieved within a 30-second timeframe for an intra-week trading strategy, offering relatively low latency performance. The results show that risk exposures are reduced by four to five times with a maximum possible success rate of 96%, providing evidence for further research and development in this area.

Abstract: A new model for trading equities in a multiple market environment is presented and discussed. Instead of allowing continuous trading, the model proposes using a series of calls that occur in rapid succession. The calls are coordinated across venues so that all venues execute their calls simultaneously. The model addresses concerns of adverse selection that can occur when some market participants have faster access to market events, such as quote updates or executions. The model also addresses concerns of quote stuffing and the explosion of market data caused by flashing quotes that can occur in continuous trading markets as passive orders are placed and immediately cancelled. Locked and crossed markets are also eliminated with the proposed model.

Abstract: Revenues generated from the sales of consolidated data represent a substantial source of income for U.S. stock exchanges. Until 2007, consolidated data revenue allocated in proportion to the number of reported trades. This allocation rule encouraged market participants to break up large trades and execute them in multiple pieces. Exchanges devised revenue-sharing and rebate programs that rewarded order-flow providers, and encouraged algorithmic traders to execute strategies involving large numbers of small trades. We provide evidence that data revenue allocation influenced the trading process, by examining trading activity surrounding various events that changed the marginal data revenue per trade.

Abstract: Informational constraints may turn the Merton Model for corporate credit risk impractical. Applying this framework to the Colombian financial sector is limited to four stock-market-listed firms; more than a hundred banking and non-banking firms are not listed. Within the same framework, firms' debt spread over the risk-free rate may be considered as the market value of the sold put option that makes risky debt trade below default-risk-free debt. In this sense, under some supplementary but reasonable assumptions, this paper uses money market spreads implicit in sell/buy backs to infer default probabilities for local financial firms. Results comprise a richer set of (38) banking and non-banking firms. As expected, default probabilities are non-negligible, where the ratio of default-probability-to-leverage is lower for firms with access to lender-of-last-resort facilities. The approach is valuable since it allows for inferring forward-looking default probabilities in the absence of stock prices. Yet, two issues may limit the validity of results to serial and cross-section analysis: overvaluation of default probabilities due to (i) spreads containing non-credit risk factors, and (ii) systematic undervaluation of the firm's value. However, cross-section assessments of default probabilities within a wider range of firms are vital for financial authorities' decision making, and represent a major improvement in the implementation of the Merton Model in absence of equity market data.