TL;DR: A review of tropical-extratropical teleconnections with a focus on developments over the Tropical Oceans-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) decade and the current state of understanding can be found in this article.
Abstract: The primary focus of this review is tropical-extratropical interactions and especially the issues involved in determining the response of the extratropical atmosphere to tropical forcing associated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The review encompasses observations, empirical studies, theory and modeling of the extratropical teleconnections with a focus on developments over the Tropical Oceans-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) decade and the current state of understanding. In the tropical atmosphere, anomalous SSTs force anomalies in convection and large-scale overturning with subsidence in the descending branch of the local Hadley circulation. The resulting strong upper tropospheric divergence in the tropics and convergence in the subtropics act as a Rossby wave source. The climatological stationary planetary waves and associated jet streams, especially in the northern hemisphere, can make the total Rossby wave sources somewhat insensitive to the position of the tropical heating that induces them and thus can create preferred teleconnection response patterns, such as the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. However, a number of factors influence the dispersion and propagation of Rossby waves through the atmosphere, including zonal asymmetries in the climatological state, transients, and baroclinic and nonlinear effects. Internal midlatitude sources can amplify perturbations. Observations, modeling, and theory have clearly shown how storm tracks change in response to changes in quasi-stationary waves and how these changes generally feedback to maintain or strengthen the dominant perturbations through vorticity and momentum transports. The response of the extratropical atmosphere naturally induces changes in the underlying surface, so that there are changes in extratropical SSTs and changes in land surface hydrology and moisture availability that can feedback and influence the total response. Land surface processes are believed to be especially important in spring and summer. Anomalous SSTs and tropical forcing have tended to be strongest in the northern winter, and teleconnections in the southern hemisphere are weaker and more variable and thus more inclined to be masked by natural variability. Occasional strong forcing in seasons other than winter can produce strong and identifiable signals in the northern hemisphere and, because the noise of natural variability is less, the signal-to-noise ratio can be large. The relative importance of tropical versus extratropical SST forcings has been established through numerical experiments with atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Predictability of anomalous circulation and associated surface temperature and precipitation in the extratropics is somewhat limited by the difficulty of finding a modest signal embedded in the high level of noise from natural variability in the extratropics, and the complexity and variety of the possible feedbacks. Accordingly, ensembles of AGCM runs and time averaging are needed to identify signals and make predictions. Strong anomalous tropical forcing provides opportunities for skillful forecasts, and the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts is expected to improve as the ability to forecast the anomalous SSTs improves, as models improve, and as the information available from the mean and the spread of ensemble forecasts is better utilized.
TL;DR: In this paper, a 56-yr NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data revealed a recurrent circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern in the summertime midlatitude circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.
Abstract: Analysis of the 56-yr NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data reveals a recurrent circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern in the summertime midlatitude circulation of the Northern Hemisphere. This pattern represents the second leading empirical orthogonal function of interannual variability of the uppertropospheric circulation. The CGT, having a zonal wavenumber-5 structure, is primarily positioned within a waveguide that is associated with the westerly jet stream. The spatial phases of CGT tend to lock to preferred longitudes. The geographically phase-locked patterns bear close similarity during June, August, and September, but the pattern in July shows shorter wavelengths in the North Pacific–North America sector. The CGT is accompanied by significant rainfall and surface air temperature anomalies in the continental regions of western Europe, European Russia, India, east Asia, and North America. This implies that the CGT may be a source of climate variability and predictability in the above-mentioned midlatitude regions. The CGT has significant correlations with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, in normal ISM years the CGT–ENSO correlation disappears; on the other hand, in the absence of El Nino or La Nina, the CGT–ISM correlation remains significant. It is suggested that the ISM acts as a “conductor” connecting the CGT and ENSO. When the interaction between the ISM and ENSO is active, ENSO may influence northern China via the ISM and the CGT. Additionally, the variability of the CGT has no significant association with the Arctic Oscillation and the variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon. The circulation of the wave train shows a barotropic structure everywhere except the cell located to the northwest of India, where a baroclinic circulation structure dominates. Two possible scenarios are proposed. The abnormal ISM may excite an anomalous west-central Asian high and downstream Rossby wave train extending to the North Pacific and North America. On the other hand, a wave train that is excited in the jet exit region of the North Atlantic may affect the westcentral Asian high and, thus, the intensity of the ISM. It is hypothesized that the interaction between the global wave train and the ISM heat source may be instrumental in maintaining the boreal summer CGT.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors reveal the atmospheric water vapor transports associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China and show that the origins of water vapor supply related to anomalous rainfall patterns are different from those related to the normal monsoon rainfall.
Abstract: [1] This paper attempts to reveal the atmospheric water vapor transports associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China. The results show that origins of water vapor supply related to anomalous rainfall patterns are different from those related to the normal monsoon rainfall. Anomalous pattern 1, with a heavier rainbelt along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, follows from a convergence of the tropical southwest water vapor transport with the midlatitude northeast water vapor transport; the tropical water vapor transport comes directly from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea but originally from the Philippine Sea. The anomalous water vapor transport is associated with a southwestward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high and a southward shift of the upper East Asian jet stream. Anomalous pattern 2, with a main rainbelt along the Huaihe River valley, is supported by the convergence of the subtropical southwest water vapor with the midlatitude water vapor transport. The subtropical branch comes directly from the South China Sea but originally from the East China Sea and the adjacent subtropical Pacific to the further east along 20–25N. The background large-scale circulation change includes a northwestward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high and an eastward shift of the upper jet stream. Although the cross-equator flows including the Somali jet supply abundant water vapor for the normal condition of June, July, and August rainfall over China, the tropical water vapor transports related to typical anomalous rainfall anomalies originate from the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The northward transport of anomalous warm water vapor occurs mainly in the lower troposphere, while the transport of midlatitude cold water vapor occurs briefly in the upper troposphere.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used reconstructed sea surface temperature datasets and century-long ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products to find that the post-1900 surface ocean warming rate over the path of these currents is two to three times faster than the global mean surface ocean cooling rate.
Abstract: Subtropical western boundary currents are warm, fast-flowing currents that form on the western side of ocean basins. They carry warm tropical water to the mid-latitudes and vent large amounts of heat and moisture to the atmosphere along their paths, affecting atmospheric jet streams and mid-latitude storms, as well as ocean carbon uptake1, 2, 3, 4. The possibility that these highly energetic currents might change under greenhouse-gas forcing has raised significant concerns5, 6, 7, but detecting such changes is challenging owing to limited observations. Here, using reconstructed sea surface temperature datasets and century-long ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products, we find that the post-1900 surface ocean warming rate over the path of these currents is two to three times faster than the global mean surface ocean warming rate. The accelerated warming is associated with a synchronous poleward shift and/or intensification of global subtropical western boundary currents in conjunction with a systematic change in winds over both hemispheres. This enhanced warming may reduce the ability of the oceans to absorb anthropogenic carbon dioxide over these regions. However, uncertainties in detection and attribution of these warming trends remain, pointing to a need for a long-term monitoring network of the global western boundary currents and their extensions.