Internal migration

Abstract: An economic behavioral model of rural urban migration is formulated which represents a realistic modification and extension of the simple wage differential approach commonly found in the literature and this probablistic approach is incorporated into a rigorous model of the determinants of urban labor demand and supply which when given values for the crucial parameters can be used among other things to estimate the equilibrium proportion of the urban labor force that is not absorbed by the modern industrial economy. Additionally the model will provide a convenient framework for analyzing the implications of alternative policies designed to alleviate unemployment by varying 1 or more of the principal parameters. A more realistic picture of labor migration in less developed nations would be one that views migration as a 2 stage phenomenon: in the 1st stage the unskilled rural worker migrates to an urban area and spends a certain period of time in the "urban traditional" sector; and the 2nd stage is reached with the eventual attainment of a more permanent modern sector job. This 2 stage process allows one to ask some basic questions concerning the decision to migrate the proportionate size of the urban traditional sector and the implications of accelerated industrial growth and/or alternative rural urban real income differentials on labor participation in the modern economy. In the model the decision to migrate from rural to urban areas is functionally related to 2 principal variables: the urban rural real income differential and the probability of obtaining an urban job. To understand better the nature of the supply function to be used in the overall model of the determinants of urban unemployment it is helpful to state the underlying behavioral assumptions of the model of rural urban migration: it is assumed that the percentage change in the urban labor force as a result of migration during any period is governed by the differential between the discounted streams of expected urban and rural real income expressed as percentage of the discounted stream of expected rural real income; the planning horizon for each worker is identical; the fixed costs of migration are identical for all workers; and the discount factor is constant over the planning horizon and identical for all potential migrants. The model demonstrates the overall net impact of allowing these parameters to vary over time and/or choosing alternative values. It underlines in a simple and plausible way the interdependent effects of industrial expansion productivity growth and the differential expected real earnings capacity of urban versus rural activities on the size and rate of increase in labor migration and therefore ultimately on the occupational distribution of the urban labor force. Possibly the most significant policy implication that emerged from the model is the great difficulty of substantially reducing the size of the urban traditional sector without a concentrated effort at making rural life more attractive.

Abstract: The Department of Economic and Social Affairs' Population Division is responsible for providing the international community with up-to-date and scientifically objective infor- mation on population and development. The Population Division provides guidance to the United Nations General Assembly, Economic and Social Council, and the Commission on Population and Development on population and development issues and undertakes regular studies on population levels and trends, population estimates and projections, population poli- cies, and population and development inter-relationships. The Population Division's work encompasses the following substantive areas: the study of mortality, fertility, international and internal migration, including their levels and trends as well as their causes and consequences; estimates and projections of the distribution of the population between urban and rural areas and in cities; estimates and projections of population size, age and sex structure, and demographic indicators for all countries of the world; the documentation and analysis of population and development policies at the national and international levels; and the study of the relationship between socio-economic develop- ment and population change. This publication presents the results of the 2003 Revision of the official United Na- tions estimates and projections of urban and rural populations for major areas, regions and countries of the world and of all urban agglomerations with 750,000 inhabitants or more in 2000. The data in this Revision are consistent with the total populations estimated and pro- jected according to the medium variant of the 2002 Revision of the United Nations global population estimates and projections, published in World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision'. This Revision updates and supersedes previous estimates and projections published by the United Nations.

Abstract: This paper reviews selected theoretical and empirical developments in the field of labor migration economics. The migration behavior of individuals differs in accordance with their perceived relative deprivation; those who are relatively more deprived tend to have stronger incentive to migrate than those who are relatively less deprived. Moreover a reference group characterized by more income inequality is likely to generate more relative deprivation. Highly skilled workers are also more likely to migrate. Migration decisions are often made jointly by the migrant and nonmigrant with a contractual arrangement regarding the sharing of costs and returns. The exchange of commitments to share income provides coinsurance. Of particular interest are the determinants of the speed of adoption of migration as an innovation and the characteristics associated with the delay in the adoption of innovation. New econometric techniques including techniques for the analysis of qualitative dependent variables techniques that correct for sample selection bias and those for the analysis of longitudinal data have substantially benefited empirical research in this area. New methods that can correct for the biased estimate of the wages particular individuals would receive at 2 or more locations at the same point in time allow researchers to test locational decsion making models. Estimates of these structural models of labor migration support the hypothesis that individuals respond to income incentives in making the decsion to migrate. Further research is needed on the pazzling observation that migrant workers earn less than native-born workers with similar characteristics during the 1st few years after migration but more thereafter. Other topics that need further research include the macroeconomic effects of migration the microeconomic and macroeconomic relationships between aging and labor migration and the migration behavior of dual-earner families.

Abstract: A significant proportion of migration in low-income countries, particularly in rural areas, is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage. We seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among Indian households. In particular, we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant, dispersed yet kinship-related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks. Analysis of longitudinal South Indian village data lends support to the hypothesis. Marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption. Farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer-distance marriage cum migration. The hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains.