Abstract: Interglacials, including the present (Holocene) period, are warm, low land ice extent (high sea level), end-members of glacial cycles. Based on a sea level definition, we identify eleven interglacials in the last 800,000 years, a result that is robust to alternative definitions. Data compilations suggest that despite spatial heterogeneity, Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5e (last interglacial) and 11c (~400 ka ago) were globally strong (warm), while MIS 13a (~500 ka ago) was cool at many locations. A step change in strength of interglacials at 450 ka is apparent only in atmospheric CO2 and in Antarctic and deep ocean temperature. The onset of an interglacial (glacial termination) seems to require a reducing precession parameter (increasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation), but this condition alone is insufficient. Terminations involve rapid, nonlinear, reactions of ice volume, CO2, and temperature to external astronomical forcing. The precise timing of events may be modulated by millennial-scale climate change that can lead to a contrasting timing of maximum interglacial intensity in each hemisphere. A variety of temporal trends is observed, such that maxima in the main records are observed either early or late in different interglacials. The end of an interglacial (glacial inception) is a slower process involving a global sequence of changes. Interglacials have been typically 10–30 ka long. The combination of minimal reduction in northern summer insolation over the next few orbital cycles, owing to low eccentricity, and high atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations implies that the next glacial inception is many tens of millennia in the future.

Abstract: Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for Tier 1 simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127,000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional CMIP6 Tier 2 and Tier 3 sensitivity experiments of PMIP4, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.

Abstract: The late Palaeozoic was marked by a series of glacial–interglacial cycles. Geochemical and fossil data suggest a role for terrestrial vegetation–carbon cycle feedbacks in the climate response to orbital forcing. Earth’s last icehouse, 300 million years ago, is considered the longest-lived and most acute of the past half-billion years, characterized by expansive continental ice sheets1,2 and possibly tropical low-elevation glaciation3. This atypical climate has long been attributed to anomalous radiative forcing promoted by a 3% lower incident solar luminosity4 and sustained low atmospheric pCO2 (≤300 ppm)5. Climate models6, however, indicate a CO2 sensitivity of ice-sheet distribution and sea-level response that questions this long-standing climate paradigm by revealing major discrepancy between hypothesized ice distribution, pCO2, and geologic records of glacioeustasy2,6. Here we present a high-resolution record of atmospheric pCO2 for 16 million years of the late Palaeozoic, developed using soil carbonate-based and fossil leaf-based proxies, that resolves the climate conundrum. Palaeo-fluctuations on the 105-yr scale occur within the CO2 range predicted for anthropogenic change and co-vary with substantial change in sea level and ice volume. We further document coincidence between pCO2 changes and repeated restructuring of Euramerican tropical forests that, in conjunction with modelled vegetation shifts, indicate a more dynamic carbon sequestration history than previously considered7,8 and a major role for terrestrial vegetation–CO2 feedbacks in driving eccentricity-scale climate cycles of the late Palaeozoic icehouse.

Abstract: . Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880–1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6–9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require negative emissions , i.e., extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89–535 trillion this century and also have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.

Abstract: The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets, which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception. Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene CO2 concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth. Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur within the next several thousand years and that the current interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However, moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500 gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.

Abstract: The loess and paleosol sequences of the Chinese Loess Plateau are composed of Quaternary dust, the origin of which has been the subject of considerable debate. Some recent U-Pb geochronological studies of eolian zircons have proposed the existence of two major wind pathways: from the north and northwest, through the Badan Jaran, Tengger, and Mu Us Deserts during interglacials, and from the west, through the Qaidam Basin during glacials. Others have emphasized the importance of Yellow River sediment supply in the Chinese Loess Plateau sediment budget. However, tracking dust source regions through U-Pb dating in a statistically robust manner is particularly complex given the similar age peaks in the age probability distributions of potential source regions in Central Asia. This paper presents 2410 new U-Pb ages of detrital zircons from wind-eroded strata, Quaternary eolian deposits, and modern river sands in central China in order to increase the robustness and the spatial resolution of zircon age distributions in dust source regions. We then propose a new mixture modeling technique to statistically address the contribution of these different sources to the Chinese Loess Plateau sedimentary budget. Our contribution estimates indicate that eolian supply to the Chinese Loess Plateau is dominated (60%–70%) by reworking of Yellow River sediment. Moreover, evidence of Qaidam Basin–sourced zircons (15%–20%) in both loess (glacial) and paleosol (interglacial) layers corroborates the existence of an erosive wind pathway through the Qaidam Basin during glacials and implies that a substantial portion of the interglacial dust is recycled from older glacial loess. We propose that sediment reworking of Yellow River sediment and older loess deposits by wind on the Chinese Loess Plateau homogenized the eolian zircon populations toward a glacial provenance due to higher (2–20 times) dust accumulation rates during glacials. These findings suggest that the Chinese Loess Plateau has evolved as a more dynamic landform than previous thought, where wind deflation, fluvial input, lateral transport, and accumulation of sediment are equally important. These internal reworking effects would then significantly bias the paleoclimatic interpretations based on eolian dust properties of the Chinese Loess Plateau.

Abstract: . Lake Ohrid is located at the border between FYROM (Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia) and Albania and formed during the latest phases of Alpine orogenesis. It is the deepest, the largest and the oldest tectonic lake in Europe. To better understand the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental evolution of Lake Ohrid, deep drilling was carried out in 2013 within the framework of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions (SCOPSCO) project that was funded by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP). Preliminary results indicate that lacustrine sedimentation of Lake Ohrid started between 1.2 and 1.9 Ma ago. Here we present new pollen data (selected percentage and concentration taxa/groups) of the uppermost ∼ 200 m of the 569 m long DEEP core drilled in the depocentre of Lake Ohrid. The study is the fruit of a cooperative work carried out in several European palynological laboratories. The age model of this part of the core is based on 10 tephra layers and on tuning of biogeochemical proxy data to orbital parameters. According to the age model, the studied sequence covers the last ∼ 500 000 years at a millennial-scale resolution ( ∼ 1.6 ka) and records the major vegetation and climate changes that occurred during the last 12 (13 only pro parte) marine isotope stages (MIS). Our results indicate that there is a general good correspondence between forested/non-forested periods and glacial–interglacial cycles of the marine isotope stratigraphy. The record shows a progressive change from cooler and wetter to warmer and drier interglacial conditions. This shift in temperature and moisture availability is visible also in vegetation during glacial periods. The period corresponding to MIS11 (pollen assemblage zone OD-10, 428–368 ka BP) is dominated by montane trees such as conifers. Mesophilous elements such as deciduous and semi-deciduous oaks dominate forest periods of MIS5 (PASZ OD-3, 129–70 ka BP) and MIS1 (PASZ OD-1, 14 ka BP to present). Moreover, MIS7 (PASZ OD-6, 245–190 ka) shows a very high interglacial variability, with alternating expansions of montane and mesophilous arboreal taxa. Grasslands (open vegetation formations requiring relatively humid conditions) characterize the earlier glacial phases of MIS12 (PASZ OD-12, 488–459 ka), MIS10 (corresponding to the central part of PASZ OD-10, 428–366 ka) and MIS8 (PASZ OD-7, 288–245 ka). Steppes (open vegetation formations typical of dry environments) prevail during MIS6 (OD-5 and OD-4, 190–129 ka) and during MIS4-2 (PASZ OD-2, 70–14 ka). Our palynological results support the notion that Lake Ohrid has been a refugium area for both temperate and montane trees during glacials. Closer comparisons with other long southern European and Near Eastern pollen records will be achieved through ongoing high-resolution studies.

Abstract: Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1degC relative to the 1880-1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3degC. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as during the prior interglacial, when sea level reached 6-9 meters higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets require "negative emissions", extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices may provide much of the extraction, and the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial could be limited and irreversible impacts minimized. In contrast, continued high emissions place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction have minimal estimated costs of 89-535 trillion dollars this century and have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high emissions unarguably sentences young people to a massive, implausible cleanup, growing deleterious climate impacts or both.

Abstract: We present new δ¹³C measurements of atmospheric CO₂ covering the last glacial/interglacial cycle, complementing previous records covering Terminations I and II. Most prominent in the new record is a significant depletion in δ¹³C(atm) of 0.5‰ occurring during marine isotope stage (MIS) 4, followed by an enrichment of the same magnitude at the beginning of MIS 3. Such a significant excursion in the record is otherwise only observed at glacial terminations, suggesting that similar processes were at play, such as changing sea surface temperatures, changes in marine biological export in the Southern Ocean (SO) due to variations in aeolian iron fluxes, changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, upwelling of deep water in the SO, and long-term trends in terrestrial carbon storage. Based on previous modeling studies, we propose constraints on some of these processes during specific time intervals. The decrease in δ¹³C(atm) at the end of MIS 4 starting approximately 64 kyr B.P. was accompanied by increasing [CO₂]. This period is also marked by a decrease in aeolian iron flux to the SO, followed by an increase in SO upwelling during Heinrich event 6, indicating that it is likely that a large amount of δ¹³C-depleted carbon was transferred to the deep oceans previously, i.e., at the onset of MIS 4. Apart from the upwelling event at the end of MIS 4 (and potentially smaller events during Heinrich events in MIS 3), upwelling of deep water in the SO remained reduced until the last glacial termination, whereupon a second pulse of isotopically light carbon was released into the atmosphere.

Abstract: . In this study we present the first results of a new isotope-enabled general circulation model set-up. The model consists of the fully coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM atmosphere–ocean model, enhanced by the JSBACH interactive land surface scheme and an explicit hydrological discharge scheme to close the global water budget. Stable water isotopes H218O and HDO have been incorporated into all relevant model components. Results of two equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial and Last Glacial Maximum conditions are analysed and compared to observational data and paleoclimate records for evaluating the model's performance in simulating spatial and temporal variations in the isotopic composition of the Earth's water cycle. For the pre-industrial climate, many aspects of the simulation results of meteoric waters are in good to very good agreement with both observations and earlier atmosphere-only simulations. The model is capable of adequately simulating the large spread in the isotopic composition of precipitation between low and high latitudes. A comparison to available ocean data also shows a good model–data agreement; however, a strong bias of overly depleted ocean surface waters is detected for the Arctic region. Simulation results under Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions also fit to the wealth of available isotope records from polar ice cores, speleothems, as well as marine calcite data. Data–model evaluation of the isotopic composition in precipitation reveals a good match of the model results and indicates that the temporal glacial–interglacial isotope–temperature relation was substantially lower than the present spatial gradient for most mid- to high-latitudinal regions. As compared to older atmosphere-only simulations, a remarkable improvement is achieved for the modelling of the deuterium excess signal in Antarctic ice cores. Our simulation results indicate that cool sub-tropical and mid-latitudinal sea surface temperatures are key for this progress. A recently discussed revised interpretation of the deuterium excess record of Antarctic ice cores in terms of marine relative humidity changes on glacial–interglacial timescales is not supported by our model results.

Abstract: The Great Khingan Mountain range, Northeast China, is located on the northern limit of modern East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and thus highly sensitive to the extension of the EASM from glacial to interglacial modes. Here, we present a high-resolution pollen record covering the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene from a closed crater Lake Moon to reconstruct vegetation history during the glacial-interglacial transition and thus register the evolution of the EASM during the last deglaciation. The vegetation history has gone through distinct changes from subalpine meadow in the last glacial maximum to dry steppe dominated by Artemisia from 20.3 to 17.4 ka BP, subalpine meadow dominated by Cyperaceae and Artemisia between 17.4 and 14.4 ka BP, and forest steppe dominated by Betula and Artemisia after 14.4 ka BP. The pollen-based temperature index demonstrates a gradual warming trend started at around 20.3 ka BP with interruptions of several brief events. Two cold conditions occurred around at 17.2–16.6 ka BP and 12.8–11.8 ka BP, temporally correlating to the Henrich 1 and the Younger Dryas events respectively, 1and abrupt warming events occurred around at 14.4 ka BP and 11.8 ka BP, probably relevant to the beginning of the Bolling-Allerod stages and the Holocene. The pollen-based moisture proxy shows distinct drought condition during the last glacial maximum (20.3–18.0 ka BP) and the Younger Dryas. The climate history based on pollen record of Lake Moon suggests that the regional temperature variability was coherent with the classical climate in the North Atlantic, implying the dominance of the high latitude processes on the EASM evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to early Holocene. The local humidity variability was influenced by the EASM limitedly before the Bolling-Allerod warming, which is mainly controlled by the summer rainfall due to the EASM front covering the Northeast China after that.

Abstract: Arid central Asia (ACA) is one of the most arid regions in the mid-latitudes and one of the main potential dust sources for the northern hemisphere. The lack of in situ early Pleistocene loess/dust records from ACA hinders our comprehensive understanding of the spatio-temporal record of aeolian loess accumulation and long term climatic changes in Asia as a whole. Here, we report the results of sedimentological, chronological and climatic studies of early Pleistocene loess-palaeosol sequences (LPS) from the northeastern Iranian Golestan Province (NIGP) in the western part of ACA. Our results reveal that: 1) Accumulation of loess on the NIGP commenced at ~2.4–1.8 Ma, making it the oldest loess known so far in western ACA; 2) the climate during the early Pleistocene in the NIGP was semi-arid, but wetter, warmer, and less windy than during the late Pleistocene and present interglacial; 3) orbital-scale palaeoclimatic changes in ACA during the early Pleistoceneare in-phase with those of monsoonal Asia, a relationship which was probably related to the growth and decay of northern hemisphere ice sheets.

Abstract: The ~100 k.y. cyclicity of the late Pleistocene ice ages started during the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT), as ice sheets became larger and persisted for longer. The climate system feedbacks responsible for introducing this nonlinear ice sheet response to orbital variations in insolation remain uncertain. Here we present benthic foraminiferal stable isotope (d18O, d13C) and trace metal records (Cd/Ca, B/Ca, U/Ca) from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 607 in the North Atlantic. During the onset of the MPT, glacial-interglacial changes in d13C values are associated with changes in nutrient content and carbonate saturation state, consistent with a change in water mass at our site from a nutrient-poor northern source during inter- glacial intervals to a nutrient-rich, corrosive southern source during glacial intervals. The respired carbon content of glacial Atlantic deep water increased across the MPT. Increased dominance of corrosive bottom waters during glacial intervals would have raised mean ocean alkalinity and lowered atmospheric pCO2. The amplitude of glacial-interglacial changes in d13C increased across the MPT, but this was not mirrored by changes in nutrient content. We interpret this in terms of air-sea CO2 exchange effects, which changed the d13C signa- ture of dissolved inorganic carbon in the deep water mass source regions. Increased sea ice cover or ocean strati cation during glacial times may have reduced CO2 outgassing in the Southern Ocean, providing an additional mechanism for reducing glacial atmospheric pCO2. Conversely, following the establishment of the ~100 k.y. glacial cycles, d13C of interglacial northern-sourced waters increased, perhaps re ecting reduced invasion of CO2 into the North Atlantic following the MPT.

Abstract: . The Marmara region in northwestern Turkey provides a unique opportunity for studying the vegetation history in response to climate changes and anthropogenic impacts because of its location between different climate and vegetation zones and its long settlement history. Geochemical and mineralogical investigations of the largest lake in the region, Lake Iznik, already registered climate-related changes of the lake level and the lake mixing. However, a palynological investigation encompassing the Late Pleistocene to Middle Holocene was still missing. Here, we present the first pollen record of the last ca. 31 ka cal BP (calibrated kilo years before 1950) inferred from Lake Iznik sediments as an independent proxy for paleoecological reconstructions. Our study reveals that the vegetation in the Iznik area changed generally between (a) steppe during glacials and stadials indicating dry and cold climatic conditions, (b) forest-steppe during interstadials indicating milder and moister climatic conditions, and (c) oak-dominated mesic forest during interglacials indicating warm and moist climatic conditions. Moreover, a pronounced succession of pioneer trees, cold temperate, warm temperate, and Mediterranean trees appeared since the Lateglacial. Rapid climate changes, which are reflected by vegetation changes, can be correlated with Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events such as DO-4, DO-3, and DO-1, the Younger Dryas, and probably also the 8.2 event. Since the mid-Holocene, the vegetation was influenced by anthropogenic activities. During early settlement phases, the distinction between climate-induced and human-induced changes of the vegetation is challenging. Still, evidence for human activities consolidates since the Early Bronze Age (ca. 4.8 ka cal BP): cultivated trees, crops, and secondary human indicator taxa appeared, and forests were cleared. Subsequent fluctuations between extensive agricultural uses and regenerations of the natural vegetation become apparent.

Abstract: This study reviews and synthesises existing information generated within the SCOPSCO (Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid) deep drilling project. The four main aims of the project are to infer (i) the age and origin of Lake Ohrid (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia/Republic of Albania), (ii) its regional seismotectonic history, (iii) volcanic activity and climate change in the central northern Mediterranean region, and (iv) the influence of major geological events on the evolution of its endemic species. The Ohrid basin formed by transtension during the Miocene, opened during the Pliocene and Pleistocene, and the lake established de novo in the still relatively narrow valley between 1.9 and 1.3 Ma. The lake history is recorded in a 584 m long sediment sequence, which was recovered within the framework of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) from the central part (DEEP site) of the lake in spring 2013. To date, 54 tephra and cryptotephra horizons have been found in the upper 460 m of this sequence. Tephrochronology and tuning biogeochemical proxy data to orbital parameters revealed that the upper 247.8 m represent the last 637 kyr. The multi-proxy data set covering these 637 kyr indicates long-term variability. Some proxies show a change from generally cooler and wetter to drier and warmer glacial and interglacial periods around 300 ka. Short-term environmental change caused, for example, by tephra deposition or the climatic impact of millennial-scale Dansgaard–Oeschger and Heinrich events are superimposed on the long-term trends. Evolutionary studies on the extant fauna indicate that Lake Ohrid was not a refugial area for regional freshwater animals. This differs from the surrounding catchment, where the mountainous setting with relatively high water availability provided a refuge for temperate and montane trees during the relatively cold and dry glacial periods. Although Lake Ohrid experienced significant environmental change over the last 637 kyr, preliminary molecular data from extant microgastropod species do not indicate significant changes in diversification rate during this period. The reasons for this constant rate remain largely unknown, but a possible lack of environmentally induced extinction events in Lake Ohrid and/or the high resilience of the ecosystems may have played a role.