Intelligence analysis

Abstract: Table of Contents Preface Chapter 1. Introduction - What Is "Intelligence?" Why Do We Have Intelligence Agencies? What Is Intelligence About? Chapter 2. The Development Of U.S. Intelligence Major Themes Major Historical Developments A Final Note Chapter 3. The U.S. Intelligence Community Alternative Ways of Looking at the Intelligence Community The Many Different Intelligence Communities Intelligence Community Relationships that Matter The Intelligence Budget Process Chapter 4. The Intelligence Process - A Macro Look: Who Does What For Whom? Requirements Collection Processing and Exploitation Analysis and Production Dissemination and Consumption Feedback Thinking About the Intelligence Process Chapter 5. Collection And The Collection Disciplines Overarching Themes The Collection Disciplines: Strengths and Weaknesses Collection - Conclusion Chapter 6. Analysis Major Themes Analytical Issues Intelligence Analysis: An Assessment Chapter 7. Counter Intelligence Internal Safeguards External Indicators and Counterespionage Problems in Counter intelligence Chapter 8. Covert Action The Decision-making Process The Range of Covert Action Issues in Covert Action Assessing Covert Action Chapter 9. The Role Of The Policymaker The Nature of the National Security Policy Process in the U.S. Government Who Wants What? The Intelligence Process: Policy and Intelligence Chapter 10. Oversight And Accountability Executive Oversight Issues Congressional Oversight Issues in Congressional Oversight Internal Dynamics of Congressional Oversight of Intelligence Conclusion Chapter 11. The Legacy Of The Cold War The Primacy of the Soviet Issue The Emphasis on Soviet Military Capabilities The Emphasis on Statistical Intelligence The Intelligence Record - Collapse of the Soviet Union Conclusion - Intelligence and the Soviet Problem Chapter 12. The New Intelligence Agenda U.S. National Security Policy after the Cold War Intelligence and the New Priorities Conclusion Chapter 13. Ethical And Moral Issues In Intelligence General Moral Questions Issues Related to Collection and Covert Action Analysis-related Issues The Media Conclusion Chapter 14. Intelligence Reform The Purpose of Reform Issues in Intelligence Reform Conclusion Chapter 15. Foreign Intelligence Services Britain China France Israel Russia Conclusion Appendix 1 Additional Bibliographic Citations and Websites Appendix 2 Major Intelligence Reviews of Proposals Author Index Subject Index

Abstract: The Central Intelligence Agency’s Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Heuer 1999) provides concise and practical summaries of recent work in cognitive psychology using real-world examples intended to help CIA agents perform their daily activities more effectively. Its 12th chapter—‘‘Biases in Estimating Probabilities’’—describes a number of widely-discussed findings from the heuristics and biases tradition. The chapter points out that among the errors that a well-trained CIA agent should aim to avoid are mistakes arising from what is commonly referred to as the ‘‘base-rate fallacy.’’ Here is an example:

Abstract: This book takes the relatively new concept of structured analytic techniques, defines its place in a taxonomy of analytic methods, and moves it a giant leap forward. It describes 50 techniques that are divided into eight categories. There are techniques for: Decomposition and Visualization Idea GenerationScenarios and IndicatorsHypothesis Generation and TestingCause and Effect Challenge AnalysisConflict ManagementDecision Support Each structured technique involves a step-by-step process that externalizes an individual analyst s thinking in a manner that makes it readily apparent to others, thereby enabling it to be shared, built on, and easily critiqued by others. This structured and transparent process combined with the intuitive input of subject matter experts is expected to reduce the risk of analytic error. Our current high tech, global environment increasingly requires collaboration between analysts with different areas of expertise and analysts representing different organizational perspectives. Structured analytic techniques are the ideal process for guiding the interaction of analysts within a small team or group. Each step in a technique prompts relevant discussion within the team, and such discussion generates and evaluates substantially more divergent information and more new ideas than a team that does not use a structured process. By defining the domain of structured analytic techniques, providing a manual for using and teaching these techniques, and outlining procedures for evaluating and validating these techniques, this book lays a common ground for continuing improvement of how analysis is done. These techniques are especially needed in the field of intelligence analysis where analysts typically deal with incomplete, ambiguous and sometimes deceptive information. However, these practical tools for analysis are also useful in a wide variety of professions including law enforcement, medicine, finance, and business.

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this survey research is twofold. First, to study and report the process that is commonly used to create and maintain a competitive intelligence (CI) program in organizations. And second, to provide an analysis of several emergent text mining, web mining and visualization‐based CI tools, which are specific to collection and analysis of intelligence.Design/methodology/approach – A range of recently published research literature on CI processes, applications, tools and technologies to collect and analyze competitive information within organizations is reviewed to explore their current state, issues and challenges learned from their practice.Findings – The paper provides executive decision makers and strategic managers a better understanding of what methods are available and appropriate to the decisions they must make and the steps involved in CI undertaking.Originality/value – The findings of this research provide the managers of CI programs a context for understanding which tools an...