TL;DR: In this article, an analysis of unanticipated money growth is extended to output and the price level (GNP deflator) for recent U.S. experience, and the results support the key hypothesis of a one-to-one, contemporaneous link between anticipated money and the GNP level.
Abstract: Earlier analysis of unanticipated money growth is extended to output (GNP) and the price level (GNP deflator) for recent U.S. experience. Price level determination is more complicated than output determination, because both anticipated and unanticipated money movements are involved. Empirical results accord well with the model--notably, they support the key hypothesis of a one-to-one, contemporaneous link between anticipated money and the price level. Precise estimates are obtained for the lagged responses of output and prices to unanticipated money movements. Cross-equation comparisons indicate that the price response to unanticipated money movements has a longer lag than the output response. A form of lagged adjustment in money demand can account for this difference. The forecasts for inflation average 5.5 percent per year for 1977-80.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that there is a second, cartalist, or C theory alternative to the optimal currency area paradigm, which is empirically more compelling than the OCA model.
TL;DR: The authors hypothesizes that the relation between stock returns and inflation is caused by the equilibrium process in the monetary sector and that these relations vary over time in a systematic manner depending on the influence of money demand and supply factors.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe three long-run monetary facts derived by examining data for 110 countries over a 30-year period, using three definitions of a country's money supply and two subsamples of countries.
Abstract: This article describes three long-run monetary facts derived by examining data for 110 countries over a 30-year period, using three definitions of a country’s money supply and two subsamples of countries: (1) Growth rates of the money supply and the general price level are highly correlated for all three money definitions, for the full sample of countries, and for both subsamples. (2) The growth rates of money and real output are not correlated, except for a subsample of countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, where these growth rates are positively correlated. (3) The rate of inflation and the growth rate of real output are essentially uncorrelated.
TL;DR: A small, structural model of the monetary business cycle implies that real money balances enter into a correctly specified, forward-looking IS curve if and only if they enter into the correctly-specified, forwardlooking Phillips curve.
Abstract: A small, structural model of the monetary business cycle implies that real money balances enter into a correctly-specified, forward-looking IS curve if and only if they enter into a correctly-specified, forward-looking Phillips curve. The model also implies that empirical measures of real balances must be adjusted for shifts in money demand to accurately isolate and quantify the dynamic effects of money on output and inflation. Maximum likelihood estimates of the modelOs parameters take both these considerations into account, but still suggest that money plays a minimal role in the monetary business cycle.