TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present evidence that reaches vastly different conclusions from those reached by Van Koppen and De Keijser, which raises four important issues concerning the interpretation of the ecological fallacy, the assumption of linearity in offender movements, the interpretation on geographic work on profiling, and the assumption on random target selection within a delimited range of operation.
Abstract: The “journey to crime,” or the study of the distance between an offender's residence and offense site, has been a subject of study within criminology for many years. Implications arising from such research touches the majority of criminological theories. An overriding conclusion from this line of research is that most crimes occur in relatively close proximity to the home of the offender. Termed the distance-decay function, a plot of the number of crimes that an offender commits decreases with increasing distance from the offender's residence. In a recent paper, Van Koppen and De Keijser raise the concern that inferring individual distance decay from aggregate-level data may be inappropriate. They assert that previous research reporting aggregated distance-decay functions conceals individual variations in the ranges of operation, which leads them to conclude that the distance-decay function is an artifact. We do not question the claim that researchers should not make inferences about individual behavior with data collected at the aggregate level. However, Van Koppen and De Keijser's analysis raises four important issues concerning (1) the interpretation of the ecological fallacy, (2) the assumption of linearity in offender movements, (3) the interpretation of geographic work on profiling, and (4) the assumption of random target selection within a delimited range of operation. Using both simulated and nonsimulated data, we present evidence that reaches vastly different conclusions from those reached by Van Koppen and De Keijser. The theoretical implications of our analyses and possibilities for future research are addressed.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an approach for psychological profiling of serial murderers in the context of crime and criminal psychology, focusing on the psychological aspects of a serial murder case and the characteristics of the person involved.
Abstract: Preface 1. Psychological Profiling: An Introduction Inductive Versus Deductive Profiling Goals in Profiling Profiling: An Art, Not a Science Conclusion 2. Profiling in Fantasy and Fact Introduction Sherlock Holmes: The Master Detective Will Graham and The Red Dragon Clarice Starling and The Silence of the Lambs Zoe Koehler: A Female Serial Murderess Alex Cross Dr. Laszlo Kreizler: The Alienist and Angel of Darkness Other Works of Fiction and Psychological Profiling Profililng in Fact Profile of a Rape Case Case Profile: Mrs. Charlene L. Miller Conclusion 3. The Rationale for Psychological Profiling Personality and Crime Biology Culture Environment Common Experiences Unique Experiences New Ways of Viewing the Personality Assumptions of the Profiling Process Conclusion 4. Criminal Theories and Psychological Profiling Theories of Crime and Criminality Inidividual Theories of Crime Social/Ecological Theories of Crime Combining the Disciplines 5. The Analysis of the Crime Scene Beyond the Physical Evidence Psychological Profiling Typology Crime Scene Differences Conclusion 6. Arson and Psychological Profiling What Is Arson? Statistics on Arson A View of the Firesetter Typologies of Firesetters Firesetting Experience Organized Versus Disorganized Personality Conclusion 7. Profiling Serial Murderers Typology of Serial Murderers Spatial Mobility of Serial Killers Serial Murderers: General Characteristics Profiling A Serial Murder Case Conclusion 8. Psychological Profiling and Rape Definitions of Rape Statistics on Rape Selected Characteristics of Rapists Psychology and Rape Typology of Rapists Conclusion 9. Pedophilia and Psychological Profiling Definition of Terms: Child Molester or Pedophile Types of Pedophiles Profiling Child Molester Types Common Threads Among Child Molesters Conclusion 10. Autoeroticism What Is Autoerotic Sexual Behavior? Traits and Characteristics fo Autoeroticism Practitioners Autoerotic Scene Indicators Conclusion 11. Profiling Satanic and Cult-Related Murders Roots of Satanism Satanism in the United States The Satanic Bible Types of Personal Involvement in Satanism General Beliefs in Satansim Satanic Masses Satanic Ceremonies Crime Scene Elements Santeria and Occult Crimes Conclusion 12. Geography, Profiling and Predatory Criminals The Elements of Geographic Profiling The Nature of Geographic Profiling Computerized Geographic Analysis Conclusion 13. Jack the Ripper Introduction Victim: Mary Ann "Polly" Nichols Victim: Annie Chapman Victim: Elizabeth Stride Victim: Catharine Eddowes Victim: Mary Kelly Who Was Jack the Ripper? Conclusion 14. Lizzie Borden Key People in the Lizzie Borden Case The Murders The Crime Scene Additional Thoughts Conclusion 15. The Victim in Criminal Profiling Elements in the Victim Profiling Process Conclusion 16. The Future of Criminal Profiling Additional Uses for Profiling Education and Training for Profiling Computerized Monitoring Computerized Profiling Online Graduate Programs, Seminars, and Degrees Conclusion
TL;DR: Liu et al. as discussed by the authors used GIS and data sharing for crime analysis in small populations. But, their work focused on crime profiling and spatial analysis of serial homicides.
Abstract: Section I. GIS and Data Sharing, 1. GIS as a Communication Process: Experiences from the Milwaukee COMPASS Project, 2. Inter-Jurisdictional Law Enforcement Data Sharing Issues: The Benefits of the use of Geo-Spatial Technologies and the Barriers to more Widespread Cooperation, Section II. Data Issues in Crime Studies, 3. Garbage In, Garbage Out: Geocoding Accuracy and the Spatial Analysis of Crime, 4. Disaggregating the Journey to Homicide, 5. Constructing Geographic Areas for Homicide Rate Analysis in Small Populations, Section III. Geographic Profiling, 6. Geographic Profiling for Serial Crime Investigation, 7. Single Incident Geographical Profiling, 8. Geographic Profiling and Spatial Analysis of Serial Homicides, Section IV. Crime Monitoring and Tracking, 9. Geographic Surveillance of Crime Frequencies in Small Areas, 10. Application of Tracking Signals to Detect Time Series Pattern Changes in Crime Mapping Systems, 11. Integrating GIS, GPS and MIS on the Web: Crime Trax in Florida, Section V. New Methods and Technologies, 12. Simulating Crime Events and Crime Patterns in a RA/CA Model Lin Liu, Xuguang Wang, John Eck, Jun Liang, University of Cincinnati, USA 13. Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Maximal Covering Models to Determine Optimal Police Patrol Areas, 14. Web GIS for Mapping Community Crime Rates: Approaches and Challenges, 15. Identifying "Hot Link" Between Crime and Crime-Related Locations, 16. Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics as Tools in Crime Analysis, Section VI. Crime and Community Characteristics, 17. The Routine Activities of Youth and Neighborhood Violence: Spatial Modeling of Place, Time and Crime, 18. Measuring Crime in and around Public Housing Using GIS
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore some of the more recent developments within crime mapping and the broader application of geographical information technology within law enforcement, and discuss the future training needs using a simple model of intelligence-led crime reduction.
Abstract: This paper explores some of the more recent developments within crime mapping and the broader application of geographical information technology within law enforcement. The information technology (IT) revolution and the reduction in computing costs since the 1980s has brought a range of analytical tools within the budgets of most police services, and one of the most significant changes has been in the way that spatial data are handled. Law enforcement has strong geographic currents at all levels of the organisation, and this paper examines three applications of geographical information systems (GIS) within policing: hotspot mapping; CompStat; and geographic profiling. The paper concludes by discussing the future training needs using a simple model of intelligence-led crime reduction. This model suggests that training for managers to enable a greater understanding of the analyses presented to them, and how to use mapping to further crime prevention and reduction, may be as important as increasing the technical ability of crime analysts. The challenge for the immediate future of crime reduction practice in law enforcement is less to worry about the training of analysts, and more to address the inability of law enforcement management to understand and act on the crime analysis they are given.
TL;DR: In this article, a single experiment tested the ability of participants and an actuarial technique to accurately predict the residential locations of serial offenders based on information about where their crimes were committed.
Abstract: The current article addresses the ongoing debate about whether individuals can perform as well as actuarial techniques when confronted with real world, consequential decisions. A single experiment tested the ability of participants (N=215) and an actuarial technique to accurately predict the residential locations of serial offenders based on information about where their crimes were committed. Results indicated that participants introduced to a ‘Circle’ or ‘Decay’ heuristic showed a significant improvement in the accuracy of predictions, and that their post-training performance did not differ significantly from the predictions of one leading actuarial technique. Further analysis of individual performances indicated that approximately 50% of participants used appropriate heuristics that typically led to accurate predictions even before they received training, while nearly 75% improved their predictive accuracy once introduced to either of the two heuristics. Several possible explanations for participants’ accurate performances are discussed and the practical implications for police investigations are highlighted. Copyright # 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.