Functional extinction

Abstract: Local extinctions have cascading effects on ecosystem functions, yet little is known about the potential for the rapid evolutionary change of species in human-modified scenarios. We show that the functional extinction of large-gape seed dispersers in the Brazilian Atlantic forest is associated with the consistent reduction of the seed size of a keystone palm species. Among 22 palm populations, areas deprived of large avian frugivores for several decades present smaller seeds than nondefaunated forests, with negative consequences for palm regeneration. Coalescence and phenotypic selection models indicate that seed size reduction most likely occurred within the past 100 years, associated with human-driven fragmentation. The fast-paced defaunation of large vertebrates is most likely causing unprecedented changes in the evolutionary trajectories and community composition of tropical forests.

Abstract: The hierarchical nature of phylogenies means that random extinction of species affects a smaller fraction of higher taxa, and so the total amount of evolutionary history lost may be comparatively slight. However, current extinction risk is not phylogenetically random. We show the potentially severe implications of the clumped nature of threat for the loss of biodiversity. An additional 120 avian and mammalian genera are at risk compared with the number predicted under random extinction. We estimate that the prospective extra loss of mammalian evolutionary history alone would be equivalent to losing a monotypic phylum.

Abstract: Molecular phylogenies contain information about the tempo and mode of species diversification through time. Because extinction leaves a characteristic signature in the shape of molecular phylogenetic trees, many studies have used data from extant taxa only to infer extinction rates. This is a promising approach for the large number of taxa for which extinction rates cannot be estimated from the fossil record. Here, I explore the consequences of violating a common assumption made by studies of extinction from phylogenetic data. I show that when diversification rates vary among lineages, simple estimators based on the birth-death process are unable to recover true extinction rates. This is problematic for phylogenetic trees with complete taxon sampling as well as for the simpler case of clades with known age and species richness. Given the ubiquity of variation in diversification rates among lineages and clades, these results suggest that extinction rates should not be estimated in the absence of fossil data.

Abstract: We developed a database of 10 wild vertebrate populations whose declines to extinction were monitored over at least 12 years. We quantitatively characterized the final declines of these well-monitored populations and tested key theoretical predictions about the process of extinction, obtaining two primary results. First, we found evidence of logarithmic scaling of time-to-extinction as a function of population size for each of the 10 populations. Second, two lines of evidence suggested that these extinction-bound populations collectively exhibited dynamics akin to those theoretically proposed to occur in extinction vortices. Specifically, retrospective analyses suggested that a population size of n individuals within a decade of extinction was somehow less valuable to persistence than the same population size was earlier. Likewise, both year-to-year rates of decline and year-to-year variability increased as the time-to-extinction decreased. Together, these results provide key empirical insights into extinction dynamics, an important topic that has received extensive theoretical attention.