FOAK

Abstract: Post-combustion CO2 capture (PCC) can be achieved using a variety of technologies. Importantly it is applicable to a wide range of processes and may also be retrofitted in certain cases. This paper covers the use of PCC for low carbon power generation from new natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants that are expected to be built in the UK in the 2020s and 2030s and that will run into the 2050s. Costs appear potentially comparable with other low carbon and controllable generation sources such as nuclear or renewables plus storage, especially with the lower gas prices that can be expected in a carbon-constrained world. Non-fuel cost reduction is still, however, desirable and, since CO2 capture is a new application, significant potential is likely to exist. For the NGCC+PCC examples shown in this paper, moving from ‘first of a kind’ (FOAK) to ‘nth of a kind’ (NOAK) gives significant improvements through both reduced financing costs and capital cost reductions. To achieve this the main emphasis needs to be on ‘commercial readiness’, rather than on system-level ‘technical readiness’, and on improvements through innovation activities, supported by underpinning research, that develop novel sub-processes; this will also maintain NOAK status for cost-effective financing. Feasible reductions in the energy penalty for PCC capture have much less impact, reflecting the inherently high levels of efficiency for modern NGCC+PCC plants.

Abstract: This paper presents a framework for estimating the future Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) cost of advanced low-carbon technologies that are currently at early pre-commercial stages of development It identifies two types of question that commonly motivate a cost analysis: “What If” questions about the hypothetical future cost of a technology that meets specified RD and “What Will” questions regarding the true expected cost of an advanced technology once it is mature and widely deployed The latter type of question is the focus of this paper It addresses shortcomings in the “bottom up” engineering-economic method current used to estimate NOAK costs It describes a more rigorous hybrid costing method that combines a bottom-up analysis of the first-of-a-kind (FOAK) commercial cost of an advanced technology with an empirical model employing experience curves to project its future cost Guidelines are presented for all phases of the analysis

Abstract: A diversified or modular power source is attractive since it requires a low construction cost per unit and can be demonstrated in small scale experimental facilities. In this study, a new metal fuel sodium cooled reactor with 300 MW electric has been developed enhancing cost reduction. And economical potential at demonstration stage with first of a kind (FOAK) is emphasized. A minimum configuration with a compact reactor vessel, a one-loop main cooling system and a simple fuel handling system is adopted enhancing cost reduction within safety requirement. Besides, construction cost of a demonstration plant with a first reactor and a small reprocessing and fuel fabrication facility is also evaluated. A major feature of the present concept is that the demonstration reactor and facilities can be directly appropriated for first commercial modules and the power plant can easily increase its capacity adding reactor and electro-refiner modules. A fast reactor cycle commercialization scenario using the present concept is thought to give low R and D or investment risk and high cost performance since the total demonstration plant cost is relatively small and the facilities are directly appropriated to commercial use. (authors)