Fertility Study

Abstract: Characteristics of general fertility studies are examined and criticized and some alternative procedures are proposed. Most of the criticisms are directed not so much at the way in which the studies have been done but at problems intrinsic to cross-sectional surveys as statistical species or implicit in the complexities of the phenomenon under investigation. The following facets present in all fertility studies are examined: 1) a definition of the universe in light of the purposes to be served by the study; 2) a set of measurement procedures oriented to the dependent variable; 3) inquiry into the intervening variables of fecundability and efficacy; 4) the probing of reproductive intentions; and 5) an attempt at explanation of the findings. The conclusion is reached that the potential of cross-sectional surveys as a procedure for enlarging knowledge of reproductive behavior is near an end and that in the future such surveys should be conducted by the government as a means of providing periodic bench-mark parameters. For academic demographers 3 lines of inquiry deserve priority: 1) establishment of the correct sequences of intentions actions and outcomes in peoples lives by interviewing the same people a series of times; 2) development of the methodology for measurement of group properties which are interdependent with reproductive norms setting the stage for a sociology of reproduction; and 3) abandonment of the multipurpose survey in favor of focused inquiries.

Abstract: The minority-status theory of Goldscheider and Uhlenberg predicts that a significant interactive relaitonship among race, education, and fertility arises partially from differences in black and white mean fertility among the highly educated. Using black and white women surveyed by the 1970 National Fertility Study, I completely decomposed the variance in fertility jointly explained by race and education to examine the from of the interactive relationship among the three variables. No support for the minority-status theory was found. The implications for future research are explored.

Abstract: This is the first report from the Na-tional Fertility Study, 1965, a survey of the reproductive behavior of a national sample of married women, under the age of 55, living with their husbands. The report presents basic data on the use of oral contraception by women under the age of 45, in relation to age, parity, education, race, and religion. The study leads to certain conclusions, as follows. Present, past, and prospective use vary inversely with the age of the woman and directly with the number of years of schooling; the majority of young women with college training have already used the oral contraceptive. Use by Negroes is somewhat less extensive than use by whites, particularly for ages below 25; some of this difference is explainable by concomitant racial differences in educational level. Negroes seem less likely than whites to use oral contraception for timing early births, and more likely, when they do use it, to be attempting to terminate their fertility. The same observation holds for white Catholics in relation to white non-Catholics. Although the extent of use may be lower among Catholics than non-Catholics, the proportion of Catholics who report use is substantial indeed in view of the persisting theological controversy. The prospects for increased use of oral contraception seem very good at present, but they may be limited by further developments in the technology of fertility regulation. Meanwhile the birth rate has declined substantially. Although much sophisticated analysis of other data from the survey will be required to determine the extent of the contribution of oral contraception to this decline, the findings presented here suggest that the contribution is substantial for young married couples. The major effect on the couple9s eventual number of children may be less than the effect on the time pattern of childbearing; in any event, both lower eventual parity and delayed fertility contribute to a decline in the numbers of births from year to year. Whatever the intent may be, it is apparent that young American couples have adopted a new means for achieving their reproductive goals.

Abstract: Discussion of the concepts of wanted and unwanted fertility in the U.S. and of difficulties in their measurement leads to the conclusion that with suitable precautions to neutralize the effects of suspect data comparability of measures between 1965 and 1970 has been achieved. The price has been a general downward bias in the estimated levels of unwanted fertility for both the 1965 and the 1970 National Fertility Study. The number of children wanted by each cohort declined and the more recent the cohort the larger the decline. The magnitude of change was large for whites but negligible for blacks. The decline was considerably more pronounced for white Catholics than for white non-Catholics. Differences by race and religion in wanted fertility are currently very small in the U.S. For the subset wanting at least 2 children and having no unwanted birth prior to their last wanted birth (70% and 84% of the total samples in 1965 and 1970 respectively) a small rise in the number of unwanted births among the earlier cohorts and a small decline among the later cohorts was found. A similar cohort analysis by race and by religion revealed that the later the cohort the more pronounced the decline in the rate of unwanted fertility and the higher the rate in the 1965 survey the larger the decline. For the most recent cohorts the black unwanted rate was still as high as that for whites but the rate for Catholics had declined below that for non-Catholics. Focusing on the 5-year periods immediately preceding the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies the unwanted rate has declined from 55-35/1000 per annum between the 1st and 2nd 1/2 of the decade. The decline was shared by both races and by white Catholics and non-Catholics.