Falsifiability

Abstract: Vaulting Ambition is the first extensive and detailed evaluation of the controversial claims that sociobiologists have made about human nature and human social behavior. It raises the "sociobiology debate" to a new level, moving beyond arguments about the politics of the various parties involved, the degree to which sociobiology assumes genetic determinism, or the falsifiability of the general theory.Sociobiology has made a great deal of noise in the popular intellectual culture. Vaulting Ambition cuts through the charges and counter-charges to take a hard look at the claims and analyses offered by the sociobiologists. It examines what the claims mean, how they relate to standard evolutionary theory, how the biological models are supposed to work, and what is wrong with the headline-grabbing proclamations of human sociobiology. In particular, it refutes the notions that humans are trapped by their evolutionary biology and history in endlessly repeating patterns of aggression, xenophobia, and deceitfulness, or that the inequities of sex, race, and class are genetically based or culturally determined. And it takes up issues of human altruism, freedom, and ethics as well.Kitcher weighs the evidence for sociobiology, for human sociobiology, and for "the pop sociobiological view" of human nature that has engendered the controversy. He concludes that in the field of nonhuman animal studies, rigorous and methodologically sound work about the social lives of insects, birds, and mammals has been done. But in applying the theories to human beings-where even more exacting standards of evidence are called for because of the potential social disaster inherent in adopting a working hypothesis as a basis for public policy - many of the same scientists become wildly speculative, building grand conclusions from what Kitcher shows to be shoddy analysis and flimsy argument.While it may be possible to develop a genuine science of human behavior based on evolutionary biology, genetics, cognition, and culture, Kitcher points out that the sociobiology that has been loudly advertised in the popular and intellectual press is not it. Pop sociobiology has in fact been felled by its overambitious and overreaching creators.Philip Kitcher is Professor of Philosophy at the University of Minnesota, and Director of its Center for the Philosophy of Science. He brings a unique combination of training in philosophy, mathematics, and biology to this thorough treatment of sociobiology. Kitcher is the author of an equally searching book on "Scientific" Creationism, Abusing Science, published by The MIT Press in 1982 and available in paperback.

Abstract: In this Section: 1. Brief Table of Contents 2. Full Table of Contents 1. BRIEF TABLE OF CONTENTS: Chapter 1: Psychology Is Alive and Well (and Doing Fine Among the Sciences) Chapter 2: Falsifiability: How to Foil Little Green Men in the Hand Chapter 3: Operationism and Essentialism: “But, Doctor, What Does It Really Mean?” Chapter 4: Testimonials and Case Study Evidence: Placebo Effects and the Amazing Chapter 5: Correlation and Causation: Birth Control by the Toaster Method Chapter 6: Getting Things Under Control: The Case of Clever Hans Chapter 7: “But It’s Not Real Life!”: The “Artificiality” Criticism and Psychology Chapter 8: Avoiding the Einstein Syndrome: The Importance of Converging Chapter 9: The Misguided Search for the “Magic Bullet”: The Issue of Multiple Chapter 10: The Achilles’ Heel of Human Cognition: Probabilistic Reasoning Chapter 11: The Role of Chance in Psychology Chapter 12: The Rodney Dangerfield of the Sciences 2. FULL TABLE OF CONTENTS: Preface Chapter 1: Psychology Is Alive and Well (and Doing Fine Among the Sciences) The Freud Problem The Diversity of Modern Psychology Implications of Diversity Unity in Science What, Then, Is Science? Systematic Empiricism Publicly Verifiable Knowledge: Replication and Peer Review Empirically Solvable Problems: Scientists’ Search for Testable Theories Psychology and Folk Wisdom: The Problem with “Common Sense” Psychology as a Young Science Summary Chapter 2: Falsifiability: How to Foil Little Green Men in the Hand Theories and the Falsifiability Criterion The Theory of Knocking Rhythms Freud and Falsifiability The Little Green Men Not All Confirmations Are Equal Falsifiability and Folk Wisdom The Freedom to Admit a Mistake Thoughts Are Cheap Errors in Science: Getting Closer to the Truth Summary Chapter 3: Operationism and Essentialism: “But, Doctor, What Does It Really Mean?” Why Scientists Are Not Essentialists Essentialists Like to Argue About the Meaning of Words Operationists Link Concepts to Observable Events Reliability and Validity Direct and Indirect Operational Definitions Scientific Concepts Evolve Operational Definitions in Psychology Operationism as a Humanizing Force Essentialist Questions and the Misunderstanding of Psychology Summary Chapter 4: Testimonials and Case Study Evidence: Placebo Effects and the Amazing Amazing Randi The Place of the Case Study Why Testimonials Are Worthless: Placebo Effects The “Vividness” Problem The Overwhelming Impact of the Single Case The Amazing Randi: Fighting Fire with Fire Testimonials Open the Door to Pseudoscience Summary Chapter 5: Correlation and Causation: Birth Control by the Toaster Method The Third-Variable Problem: Goldberger and Pellagra Why Goldberger’s Evidence Was Better The Directionality Problem Selection Bias Summary Chapter 6: Getting Things Under Control: The Case of Clever Hans Snow and Cholera Comparison, Control, and Manipulation Random Assignment in Conjunction with Manipulation Defines the True Experiment The Importance of Control Groups The Case of Clever Hans, the Wonder Horse Clever Hans in the 1990s Prying Variables Apart: Special Conditions Intuitive Physics Intuitive Psychology Summary Chapter 7: “But It’s Not Real Life!”: The “Artificiality” Criticism and Psychology Why Natural Isn’t Always Necessary The “Random Sample” Confusion The Random Assignment Versus Random Sample Distinction Theory-Driven Research Versus Direct Applications Applications of Psychological Theory The “College Sophomore” Problem The Real-Life and College Sophomore Problems in Perspective Summary Chapter 8: Avoiding the Einstein Syndrome: The Importance of Converging Evidence The Connectivity Principle A Consumer’s Rule: Beware of Violations of Connectivity The “Great-Leap” Model Versus the Gradual-Synthesis Model Converging Evidence: Progress Despite Flaws Converging Evidence in Psychology Scientific Consensus Methods and the Convergence Principle The Progression to More Powerful Methods A Counsel Against Despair Summary Chapter 9: The Misguided Search for the “Magic Bullet”: The Issue of Multiple The Concept of Interaction The Temptation of the Single-Cause Explanation Summary Chapter 10: The Achilles’ Heel of Human Cognition: Probabilistic Reasoning “Person-Who” Statistics Probabilistic Reasoning and the Misunderstanding of Psychology Psychological Research on Probabilistic Reasoning Insufficient Use of Probabilistic Information Failure to Use Sample Size Information The Gambler’s Fallacy A Further Word About Statistics and Probability Summary Chapter 11: The Role of Chance in Psychology The Tendency to Try to Explain Chance Events Explaining Chance: Illusory Correlation and the Illusion of Control Chance and Psychology Coincidence Personal Coincidences Accepting Error in Order to Reduce Error: Clinical versus Actuarial Prediction Summary Chapter 12: The Rodney Dangerfield of the Sciences Psychology’s Image Problem Psychology and Parapsychology The Self-Help Literature Recipe Knowledge Psychology and Other Disciplines Our Own Worst Enemies Isn’t Everyone a Psychologist? Implicit Theories of Behavior The Source of Resistance to Scientific Psychology The Final Word References Name Index Subject Index

Abstract: Nelson, G. (Department of Ichthyology, The American Museum of Natural History, New York, New York 10024) 1978. Ontogeny, Phylogeny, Paleontology, and the Biogenetic Law. Syst. Zool. 27:324-345.-The biogenetic law is restated in a falsifiable form: given an ontogenetic character transformation, from a character observed to be more general to a character observed to be less general, the more general character is primitive and the less general advanced. The law, as restated, may be generally valid. In any case, the ontogenetic argument is a valid direct technique of character phylogeny; the anatomical argument ("outgroup comparison") is an indirect technique; the paleontological argument is of uncertain status. Falsification -of all three types of arguments is explored in an analysis of L. Agassiz's concept of "threefold parallelism." Neoteny is a falsifier not of the biogenetic law, but of character phylogeny-of all three arguments. Phylogenetic reconstruction in its entirety appears to be an extrapolation of the orderliness of development. [Ontogeny; phylogeny; paleontology; biogenetic law; parsimony; falsification; Agassiz.] "When great changes occur in history, when great principles are involved, as a rule the majority are wrong" (Eugene Debs, 1918). "I have a simple faith that ... semantic difficulties inspire 90% of any argument and that, when these are sorted out, both sides are doing something right" (Stephen Gould, 1976). "When you believe in things you don't understand, then you suffeT; superstition ain't the way" (Stevie Wonder, 1972). During the history of science there occur periods of disagreement and debate. One side of the debate sometimes emerges victorious, as for example uniformitarianism over catastrophism in geology. At other times, both sides lose, when subsequent history renders the entire debate irrelevant, as for example the debate among preformationists (spermatists vs. ovists). The last 25 years has been a period of debate among systematists. The debate has concerned basic principles of systematics (phenetics, phyletics, gradistics, etc.) and shows no sign of ending. At present, there are authors who claim that victory will be achieved in favor of some particular point of view, and others who claim that the entire debate was, is, and will continue to be, irrelevant. Of the latter authors, there are those who claim that the debate is irrelevant for systematics, and others who claim that the irrelevant factor is systematics itself. In short, all possible viewpoints seem represented. With respect to the current debate, and the future progress of science, wherein lies the relevance of systematics? In order to answer, a person must have some idea of what is being debated-the basic issues. Attaining a clear idea of the basic issues is a formidable task, as anyone who has read through the first 25 volumes of Systematic Zoology will readily admit. There are times when I wonder if there really are any basic issues, and at those times the debate seems to be over the question whether there need to be some. At other times I think that one basic issue concerns evolution and its bearing on systematics and classification. This is not a simple issue. Let me simplify it. According to the phylogenetic school, one objective of the systematist is clear: to search out shared advanced characters ("synapomorphies"), which can be used to define groups and subgroups, and which specify the nature of evolution insofar as its results are known to be orderly. The problem with this objective is