Eye

Abstract: This is the first of two papers on Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency In this paper, seasonal hurricane frequency as related to E1 Nino events during 1900–82 and to the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric zonal wind from 1950 to 1982 is discussed It is shown that a substantial negative correlation is typically present between the seasonal number of hurricanes, hurricane days and tropical storms, and moderate or strong (15 cases) El Nin off the South American west coast A similar negative anomaly in hurricane activity occurs when equatorial winds at 30 mb are from an easterly direction and/or are becoming more easterly with time during the hurricane season This association of Atlantic hurricane activity with El Nino can also be made with the Southern Oscillation Index By contrast, seasonal hurricane frequency is slightly above normal in non-El Nino years and substantially above normal when equatorial stratospheric winds blow from a westerly direction and/or are bec

Abstract: In Part I of this study an analytical model for a steady-state tropical cyclone is constructed on the assumption that boundary-layer air parcels are conditionally neutral to displacements along the angular momentum surfaces of the hurricane vortex. The reversible thermodynamics implied by this assumption allows the mature storm to be thought of as a simple Carnot engine, acquiring heat at the high-temperature ocean surface and losing heat near the low-temperature tropopause. Although the oceanic heat source is universally recognized as the sine qua non for the mature hurricane, there is also wide acceptance of conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) (which makes no specific reference to surface heat fluxes) as the formative mechanism. This ambivalence is seen in that all numerical-simulation studies find it essential to have transfer from the ocean surface yet all start from a conditionally unstable atmosphere. The hypothesis put forward in Part I, based on the steady-state theory, is t...

Abstract: A thermodynamic approach to estimating maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones is described and compared with observations and previous studies. The approach requires an atmospheric temperature sounding, SST, and surface pressure; includes the oceanic feedback of increasing moist entropy associated with falling surface pressure over a steady SST; and explicitly incorporates a cloudy eyewall and a clear eye. Energetically consistent, analytic solutions exist for all known atmospheric conditions. The method is straightforward to apply and is applicable to operational analyses and numerical model forecasts, including climate model simulations. The derived MPI is highly sensitive to the surface relative humidity under the eyewall, to the height of the warm core, and to transient changes of ocean surface temperature. The role of the ocean is to initially contribute to the establishment of the ambient environment suitable for cyclone development, then to provide the additional energy req...

Abstract: In this paper we examine further the physics of vortex axisymmetrization, with the goal of elucidating the dynamics of outward-propagating spiral bands in hurricanes. the basic shysics is illustrated most simply for stable vorticity monopoles on an f-plane. Unlike the dynamics of sheared disturbances in rectilinear shear flow, axisymmetrizing disturbances on a vortex are accompanied by outward-propagating vortex Rossby-waves whose restoring mechanism is associated with the radial gradient of storm vorticity. Expressions for both phase and group velocities are derived and verified; they confirm earlier speculations on the existence of vortex Rossbywaves in hurricanes. Effects of radially propagating vortex Rossby-waves on the mean vortex are also analysed. In conjunction with sustained injection of vorticity near the radius of maximum winds, these results reveal a new mechanism of vortex intensification. the basic theory is then applied to a hurricane-like vortex in a shallow-water asymmetric-balance model. the wave mechanics developed here shows promise in elucidating basic mechanisms of hurricane evolution and structure changes, such as the formation of secondary eye-walls. Radar observations possessing adequate temporal resolution are consistent with the predictions of this work, though more refined observations are needed to quantify further the impact of mesoscale banded disturbances on the evolution of the hurricane vortex.