TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a short course entitled "System Safety and Reliability Analysis" which has been presented to over 200 National Research Council (NRC) personnel and contractors.
Abstract: Introduction: Since 1975, a short course entitled "System Safety and Reliability Analysis" has been presented to over 200 NRC personnel and contractors. The course has been taught jointly by David F. Haasl, Institute of System Sciences, Professor Norman H.
Roberts, University of Washington, and members of the Probabilistic Analysis Staff, NRC, as part of a risk assessment training program sponsored by the Probabilistic Analysis Staff. This handbook has been developed not only to serve as text for the System Safety
and Reliability Course, but also to make available to others a set of otherwise undocumented material on fault tree construction and evaluation. The publication of this handbook is in accordance with the recommendations of the Risk Assessment Review Group Report (NUREG/CR-0400) in which it was stated that the fault/event tree methodology both can and should be used more widely by the NRC. It is hoped that this document will help to codify and systematize the fault tree approach to systems analysis.
TL;DR: This chapter discusses Reliability Engineering in Perspective, which examines the development of Reliability Modeling in the context of Repairable Components and Systems.
Abstract: Chapter 1 Reliability Engineering in Perspective 1.1 Why Study Reliability? 1.2 Failure Models 1.3 Failure Mechanisms 1.4 Performance Measures 1.5 Formal Definition of Reliability 1.6 Definition of Availability 1.7 Definition of Risk Chapter 2 Basic Reliability Mathematics: Review of Probability and Statistics 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Elements of Probability 2.3 Probability Distributions 2.4 Basic Characteristics of Random Variables 2.5 Estimation and Hypothesis Testing 2.6 Frequency Tables and Histograms 2.7 Goodness-of-Fit Tests 2.8 Regression Analysis Chapter 3 Elements of Component Reliability 3.1 Concept of Reliability 3.2 Common Distributions in Component Reliability 3.3 Component Reliability Model Selection 3.4 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Reliability Distribution Parameters 3.5 Classical Nonparametric Distribution Estimation 3.6 Bayesian Estimation Procedures 3.7 Methods of Generic Failure Rate Determination Chapter 4 System Reliability Analysis 4.1 Reliability Block Diagram Method 4.2 Fault Tree and Success Tree Methods 4.3 Event Tree Method 4.4 Master Logic Diagram 4.5 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis Chapter 5 Reliability and Availability of Repairable Components and Systems 5.1 Repairable System Reliability 5.2 Availability of Repairable Systems 5.3 Use of Markov Processes for Determining System Availability 5.4 Use of System Analysis Techniques in the Availability Calculations of Complex Systems Chapter 6 Selected Topics in Reliability Modeling 6.1 Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure Reliability Modeling 6.2 Software Reliability Analysis 6.3 Human Reliability 6.4 Measures of Importance 6.5 Reliability-Centered Maintenance 6.6 Reliability Growth Chapter 7 Selected Topics in Reliability Data Analysis 7.1 Accelerated Life Testing 7.2 Analysis of Dependent Failures 7.3 Uncertainty Analysis 7.4 Use of Expert Opinion for Estimating Reliability Parameters 7.5 Probabilistic Failure Analysis Chapter 8 Risk Analysis 8.1 Determination of Risk Values8.2 Formalization of Quantitative Risk Assessment 8.3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment 8.4 Compressed Natural Gas Powered Buses: A PRA Case Study 8.5 A Simple Fire Protection Risk Analysis 8.6 Precursor Analysis Appendices Index
TL;DR: This paper introduces the application of probability adapting in dynamic safety analysis rather than probability updating, and illustrates how Bayesian network (BN) helps to overcome limitations in BT.
TL;DR: A new method is presented that allows the efficient computation of both the minimal cuts of a fault tree and the probability of its root event and results in a qualitative and quantitative improvement in safety analysis of industrial systems.
TL;DR: Failure of oil and gas transmission pipelines was analyzed by fault tree analysis and the proposed method, which combined expert elicitation with fuzzy set theories to evaluate probability of the events, is effective to treat fuzzy events of FTA.
Abstract: Failure of oil and gas transmission pipelines was analyzed by fault tree analysis in this paper. According to failure modes of pipeline: leakage and rupture, a fault tree of the pipeline was constructed. Fifty-five minimal cut sets of the fault tree had been achieved by qualitative analysis, while the failure probability of top event and the important analyses of basic events were evaluated by quantitative analysis. In conventional fault tree analysis, probabilities of the basic events were treated as precise values, which could not reflect real situation of system because of ambiguity and imprecision of some basic events. In order to overcome this disadvantage, a new method was proposed which combined expert elicitation with fuzzy set theories to evaluate probability of the events. As an example, failure probability of pipeline installation was assessed by using the proposed method, achieving its fuzzy failure probability of 6.4603×10 −3 . The method given in this article is effective to treat fuzzy events of FTA.