Topic
Dynamic factor
About: Dynamic factor is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 959 publications have been published within this topic receiving 50621 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
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Papers
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models, including a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter for modeling economic and social time series, and address the special problems which the treatment of such series poses.
Abstract: In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.
4,278 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the convergence rate for the factor estimates that will allow for consistent estimation of the number of factors is established, and some panel criteria are proposed to obtain the convergence rates.
Abstract: In this paper we develop some econometric theory for factor models of large dimensions. The focus is the determination of the number of factors (r), which is an unresolved issue in the rapidly growing literature on multifactor models. We first establish the convergence rate for the factor estimates that will allow for consistent estimation of r. We then propose some panel criteria and show that the number of factors can be consistently estimated using the criteria. The theory is developed under the framework of large cross-sections (N) and large time dimensions (T). No restriction is imposed on the relation between N and T. Simulations show that the proposed criteria have good finite sample properties in many configurations of the panel data encountered in practice.
3,977 citations
1 Jan 2003
3,347 citations
TL;DR: This paper used principal component analysis (PCA) to predict macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors, and the predictors were summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analyzer.
Abstract: This article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors. The predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis. An approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts. The method is used to construct 6-, 12-, and 24-monthahead forecasts for eight monthly U.S. macroeconomic time series using 215 predictors in simulated real time from 1970 through 1998. During this sample period these new forecasts outperformed univariate autoregressions, small vector autoregressions, and leading indicator models.
3,270 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a summary of recent work on a new methodology to test for the presence of a unit root in univariate time series models, which is quite general.
2,887 citations
Related Topics (5)
Performance Metrics
| Year | Papers |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 |
| 2024 | 41 |
| 2023 | 51 |
| 2022 | 63 |
| 2021 | 44 |
| 2020 | 42 |