TL;DR: In this article, the authors model the diffusion of innovations in markets with two segments: influentials who are more in touch with new developments and who affect another segment of imitators whose own adoptions do not affect the influentials.
Abstract: We model the diffusion of innovations in markets with two segments: influentials who are more in touch with new developments and who affect another segment of imitators whose own adoptions do not affect the influentials. This two-segment structure with asymmetric influence is consistent with several theories in sociology and diffusion research, as well as many “viral” or “network” marketing strategies. We have four main results. 1 Diffusion in a mixture of influentials and imitators can exhibit a dip or “chasm” between the early and later parts of the diffusion curve. 2 The proportion of adoptions stemming from influentials need not decrease monotonically, but may first decrease and then increase. 3 Erroneously specifying a mixed-influence model to a mixture process where influentials act independently from each other can generate systematic changes in the parameter values reported in earlier research. 4 Empirical analysis of 33 different data series indicates that the two-segment model fits better than the standard mixed-influence, the Gamma/Shifted Gompertz, and the Weibull-Gamma models, especially in cases where a two-segment structure is likely to exist. Also, the two-segment model fits about as well as the Karmeshu-Goswami mixed-influence model, in which the coefficients of innovation and imitation vary across potential adopters in a continuous fashion.
TL;DR: A diffusion curve for an innovation is usually defined as the proportion of its potential users who have already adopted as a function of time (measured from the first adoption) as discussed by the authors, and it has been shown that diffusion curves nearly always have two distinct characteristics: (i) they are S-shaped (the proportion adopted is an increasing convex but eventually becomes concave); and (ii) they tend to be right-hand skewed (the inflection point occurs at a time corresponding to a proportion adopted which is less than one half, so that the function is concave over
TL;DR: An interactive drawing system for allowing artists to create artworks using diffusion curves, either by drawing the curves in a freehand style, or by tracing existing imagery, is demonstrated.
Abstract: We describe a new vector-based primitive for creating smooth-shaded images, called the diffusion curve. A diffusion curve partitions the space through which it is drawn, defining different colors on either side. These colors may vary smoothly along the curve. In addition, the sharpness of the color transition from one side of the curve to the other can be controlled. Given a set of diffusion curves, the final image is constructed by solving a Poisson equation whose constraints are specified by the set of gradients across all diffusion curves. Like all vector-based primitives, diffusion curves conveniently support a variety of operations, including geometry-based editing, keyframe animation, and ready stylization. Moreover, their representation is compact and inherently resolution-independent. We describe a GPU-based implementation for rendering images defined by a set of diffusion curves in realtime. We then demonstrate an interactive drawing system for allowing artists to create artworks using diffusion curves, either by drawing the curves in a freehand style, or by tracing existing imagery. The system is simple and intuitive: we show results created by artists after just a few minutes of instruction. Furthermore, we describe a completely automatic conversion process for taking an image and turning it into a set of diffusion curves that closely approximate the original image content.
TL;DR: In this paper, a nonuniform influence NUI innovation diffusion model for forecasting first adoptions of a new product is proposed, which allows the diffusion curve to be symmetric as well as nonsymmetrical, with the point of inflection responding to the diffusion process.
Abstract: A nonuniform influence NUI innovation diffusion model for forecasting first adoptions of a new product is proposed. An extension of the Bass model, the proposed model overcomes three limitations of the existing single-adoption diffusion models. First, the current models generally assume that the word-of-mouth effect remains constant over the entire diffusion span. However, for most innovations, the word-of-mouth effect is likely to increase, decrease or remain constant over time. Second, the existing models assume that an innovation must attain its maximum penetration rate before capturing a prespecified level of potential market, for example, 50%. That is, they restrict the location of the inflection point for the diffusion curves. Third, the current models assume that the adoption patterns after and before the location of maximum penetration rate are mirror images of each other. That is, the diffusion curve is symmetric. By allowing the word-of-mouth effect to systematically vary over time, the proposed model allows the diffusion curve to be symmetrical as well as nonsymmetrical, with the point of inflection responding to the diffusion process. Data from five consumer durables are analyzed to illustrate the generality of the model.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine alternate models of the diffusion of new products and the turning points of a diffusion curve and point out directions for future research on the drivers, specifications, and estimation methods.
Abstract: We critically examine alternate models of the diffusion of new products and the turning points of the diffusion curve. On each of these topics, we focus on the drivers, specifications, and estimation methods researched in the literature. We discover important generalizations about the shape, parameters, and turning points of the diffusion curve and the characteristics of diffusion across early stages of the product life cycle. We point out directions for future research.