Capital control

Abstract: Capital account liberalization, it is fair to say, remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day. One reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very different implications for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows. Another is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive results. The answer, another influential strand of thought contends, is that this efficient-markets paradigm is fundamentally misleading when applied to capital flows. Limits on capital movements are a distortion. It is an implication of the theory of the second best that removing one distortion need not be welfare enhancing when other distortions are present.

Abstract: Few areas of the world have escaped significant losses from episodes of bank insolvency. Bank insolvency is more costly in the developing world, where losses represent a greater share of income. The authors present data on bank insolvency episodes since the late 1970s. This new database can be used in conjunction with readily available data. Information and insights are presented in seven tables on: a) major bank insolvencies episodes and systemic banking crises; b) main characteristics of banking crises; c) trade terms in crisis countries; d) trade concentration prior to crises; e) restructuring characteristics; f) financial analysis of crisis countries; and g) restructuring outcome in crisis countries. In a companion paper the authors discuss possible preventatives and the tradeoff between safety and soundness versus efficiency. Meanwhile, this initial database suggests further avenues for research. There is a dearth of widely available indicators on bank performance. More attention should be focused on developing indicators that might predict bank insolvency for individual banks and systems as a whole. The authors devise criteria for assessing how governments deal with insolvency and find that countries handle it well.

Abstract: The issue of "spillover or contagion" effects has acquired renewed importance in light of the Mexican crisis in December 1994 and the effect that this event has had on other emerging market economies. Relatively little empirical analysis exists on how small open economies are affected by economic developments in their neighbors and what role financial markets play in the transmission of disturbances. This paper attempts to fill that gap by examining recent developments in emerging equity markets in Asia and Latin America and longer term trends and cycles in capital flows to Latin American economies and their sensitivity to events in the larger countries in the region.