Abstract: A company’s credit default swap spread is the cost per annum for protection against a default by the company. In this paper we analyze data on credit default swap spreads collected by a credit derivatives broker. We first examine the relationship between credit default spreads and bond yields and reach conclusions on the benchmark risk-free rate used by participants in the credit derivatives market. We then carry out a series of tests to explore the extent to which credit rating announcements by Moody’s are anticipated by participants in the credit default swap market.

Abstract: This article empirically tests five structural models of corporate bond pricing: those of Merton (1974), Geske (1977), Longstaff and Schwartz (1995), Leland and Toft (1996), and Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001). We implement the models using a sample of 182 bond prices from firms with simple capital structures during the period 1986–1997. The conventional wisdom is that structural models do not generate spreads as high as those seen in the bond market, and true to expectations, we find that the predicted spreads in our implementation of the Merton model are too low. However, most of the other structural models predict spreads that are too high on average. Nevertheless, accuracy is a problem, as the newer models tend to severely overstate the credit risk of firms with high leverage or volatility and yet suffer from a spread underprediction problem with safer bonds. The Leland and Toft model is an exception in that it overpredicts spreads on most bonds, particularly those with high coupons. More accurate structural models must avoid features that increase the credit risk on the riskier bonds while scarcely affecting the spreads of the safest bonds. The seminal work of Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1974) in the area of corporate bond pricing has spawned an enormous theoretical literature on risky debt pricing. One motivating factor for this burgeoning literature is the perception that the Merton model cannot generate sufficiently high-yield spreads to match those observed in the market. Thus the recent theoretical literature includes a variety of extensions and

Abstract: We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing "cash flow" and "discount rate" effects for equity valuation. This finding helps explain the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the high-frequency data, we document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects.

Abstract: We characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure Contrary to correlation analysis, this nonparametric measure is not predisposed toward the normal distribution and can allow for nonlinear relationships Our estimates for the G-5 countries suggest that simultaneous crashes between stock markets are much more likely than between bond markets However, for the assessment of financial system stability the widely disregarded cross-asset perspective is particularly important For example, our data show that stock-bond contagion is approximately as frequent as flight to quality from stocks into bonds Extreme cross-border linkages are surprisingly similar to national linkages, illustrating a potential downside to international financial integration

Abstract: We examine whether there is a flight-to-liquidity premium in Treasury bond prices by comparing them with prices of bonds issued by Refcorp, a U.S. Government agency. Since Refcorp bonds are, in effect, guaranteed by the Treasury, they have the same credit as Treasury bonds. We find a large liquidity premium in Treasury bonds, which can be more than fifteen percent of the value of some Treasury bonds. We find strong evidence that this liquidity premium is related to changes in consumer con- fidence, flows into equity and money market mutual funds, and changes in foreign ownership of Treasury debt. This suggests that the popularity of Treasury bonds directly affects their value

Abstract: This study provides new evidence on the performance and investment style of retail ethical funds in Australia. By applying a conditional multi-factor Carhart (1997) model, we solve the benchmark problem most prior ethical studies suffered from. After controlling for investment style, time-variation in betas, bond exposure and home bias, we observe no evidence of significant differences in risk-adjusted returns between ethical and conventional funds during the 1992-2003 period. This result however is sensitive to the chosen time period. During 1992-1996, domestic ethical funds under-perform their conventional counterparts significantly. During 1996-2003, the ethical funds match the performance of conventional funds more closely. This suggests there is a learning effect for the relatively young ethical investment industry.

Abstract: The authors argue that emerging economies borrow short term due to the high risk premium charged by international capital markets on long-term debt. They first present a model where the debt maturity structure is the outcome of a risk-sharing problem between the government and bondholders. By issuing long-term debt, the government lowers the probability of a liquidity crisis, transferring risk to bondholders. In equilibrium, this risk is reflected in a higher risk premium and borrowing cost. Therefore, the government faces a tradeoff between safer long-term borrowing and cheaper short-term debt. Second, the authors construct a new database of sovereign bond prices and issuance. They show that emerging economies pay a positive term premium (a higher risk premium on long-term bonds than on short-term bonds). During crises, the term premium increases, with issuance shifting toward shorter maturities. This suggests that changes in bondholders' risk aversion are important to understand emerging market crises.

Abstract: This paper seeks to revive the case for countries to insure against economic growth slowdowns by issuing bonds indexed to the rate of growth of GDP We show that GDP-indexed bonds could provide substantial benefits in reducing the likelihood of default crises and allowing countries to avoid pro-cyclical fiscal policies We simulate the effects of GDP-indexed bonds under different assumptions about fiscal policy reaction functions and their output effects and find that they could substantially reduce the likelihood of debt/GDP paths becoming explosive The insurance premium would likely be small, because cross-country comovement of GDP growth rates is low and cross-country GDP growth risk is, thus, largely diversifiable for an investor holding a portfolio of GDP-indexed bonds Potential obstacles to the emergence of a market for these bonds include the verifiability of GDP data, the trade-off between insurance and moral hazard, and the need for liquidity Theory and past experience suggest that financial innovation often requires official intervention and its timing and form are difficult to predict We discuss institutional fixes and suggest an approach for attempting to start up a market

Abstract: GDS-indexed bonds This paper seeks to revive the case for countries to insure against economic growth slowdowns by issuing bonds indexed to the rate of growth of GDP We show that GDP‐indexed bonds could provide substantial benefits in reducing the likelihood of default crises and allowing countries to avoid pro‐cyclical fiscal policies We simulate the effects of GDP‐indexed bonds under different assumptions about fiscal policy reaction functions and their output effects and find that they could substantially reduce the likelihood of debt/GDP paths becoming explosive The insurance premium would likely be small, because cross‐country comovement of GDP growth rates is low and cross‐country GDP growth risk is thus largely diversifiable for an investor holding a portfolio of GDP‐indexed bonds Potential obstacles to the emergence of a market for these bonds include the verifiability of GDP data, the trade‐off between insurance and moral hazard, and the need for liquidity Theory and past experience suggest that financial innovation often requires official intervention and its timing and form are difficult to predict We discuss institutional fixes and suggest an approach for attempting to start up a market — Eduardo Borensztein and Paolo Mauro

Abstract: In this paper, we document how, in the wake of monetary unification, the markets for euro-area sovereign and private-sector bonds have become increasingly integrated. Issuers and investors alike have come to regard the euro-area bond market as a single one. Primary and secondary bond markets have become increasingly integrated on a pan-European scale. Issuance of corporate bonds has taken off on an unprecedented scale in continental Europe. In the process, both investors and issuers have reaped the considerable benefits afforded by greater competition in the underwriting of private bonds and auctioning of public ones, and by the greater liquidity of secondary markets. Bond yields have converged dramatically in the transition to EMU. The persistence of small and variable yield differentials for sovereign debt under EMU indicates that euro-area bonds are still not perfect substitutes. However, to a large extent, this does not reflect persistent market segmentation but rather small differentials in fundamental risk. Liquidity differences play at most a minor role, and this role appears to arise partly from their interaction with fundamental risk. The challenges still lying ahead are numerous. They include: the imbalance between the German-dominated futures and the underlying cash market; the vulnerability of the cash markets' prices to free-riding and manipulation by large financial institutions; the possibility of joint bond issuance by euro-area countries; the integration of clearing and settlement systems in the euro-area bond market; and the participation of new accession countries' issuers in this market. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

Abstract: Using a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2002, this paper shows that financial markets value fiscal discipline. Interest rates, particularly those of long-term government bonds, decrease when countries' fiscal position improves and increase around periods of budget deteriorations. Stock market prices surge around times of substantial fiscal tightening and plunge in periods of very loose fiscal policy. In addition, the paper shows that results depend on countries' initial fiscal conditions and on the type of fiscal consolidations. Fiscal adjustments that occur in country-years with high levels of government deficit, that are implemented by cutting government spending, and that generate a permanent and substantial decrease in government debt are associated with larger reductions in interest rates and increases in stock market prices.

Abstract: The recent accounting scandals at Enron, WorldCom, and Tyco were related to the misrepresentation of liabilities. We provide a structural model of correlated multi-firm default, in which public bond investors are uncertain about the liability-dependent barrier at which individual firms default. Investors form prior beliefs on the barriers, which they update with the default status information of firms arriving over time. Whenever a firm suddenly defaults, investors learn about the default threshold of closely associated business partner firms. This updating leads to “contagious” jumps in credit spreads of business partners. We characterize joint default probabilities and the default dependence structure as assessed by investors, where we emphasize the the modeling of dependence with copulas. A case study based on Brownian asset dynamics illustrates our results.

Abstract: Credit ratings produced by the major credit rating agencies (CRAs) aim to measure the creditworthiness, or more specifically the relative creditworthiness of companies, i.e. their ability to meet their debt servicing obligations. In principle, the rating process focuses on the fundamental long-term credit strength of a company. It is typically based on both public and private information, except for unsolicited ratings, which focus only on public information. The basic rationale for using ratings is to achieve information economies of scale and solve principal-agent problems. Partly for the same reasons, the role of credit ratings has expanded significantly over time. Regulators, banks and bondholders, pension fund trustees and other fiduciary agents have increasingly used ratings-based criteria to constrain behaviour. As a result, the influence of the opinions of CRAs on markets appears to have grown considerably in recent years. One aspect of this development is its potential impact on market dynamics (i.e. the timing and path of asset price adjustments, credit spreads, etc.), either directly, as a consequence of the information content of ratings themselves, or indirectly, as a consequence of the “hardwiring” of ratings into regulatory rules, fund management mandates, bond covenants, etc. When considering the impact of ratings and rating changes, two conclusions are worth highlighting. – First, ratings correlate moderately well with observed credit spreads, and rating changes with changes in spreads. However, other factors, such as liquidity, taxation and historical volatility clearly also enter into the determination of spreads. Recent research suggests that reactions to rating changes may also extend beyond the immediately-affected company to its peers, and from bond to equity prices. Furthermore, this price reaction to rating changes seems to be asymmetrical, i.e. more pronounced for downgrades than for upgrades, and may be more significant for equity prices than for bond prices. – Second, the hardwiring of regulatory and market rules, bond covenants, investment guidelines, etc., to ratings may influence market dynamics, and potentially lead to or magnify threshold effects. The more that different market participants adopt identical ratings-linked rules, or are subject to similar ratings-linked regulations, the more “spiky” the reaction to a credit event is likely to be. This reaction may include, in some cases, the emergence of severe liquidity pressures. Efforts have recently been made, notably with support from the rating agencies themselves, to encourage a more systematic disclosure of rating triggers and to renegotiate and smooth the possibly more destabilising forms of rating triggers. However, the lack of a clear disclosure regime makes it difficult to assess how far this process has evolved. Questions also remain as to the extent to which ratings-based criteria introduce a fundamentally new element into market behaviour, or, conversely, the extent to which they are simply a va riant of more traditional contractual covenants. Rating agencies strive to provide credit assessments that remain broadly stable through the course of the business cycle (rating “through the cycle”). Agencies and other analysts frequently contrast the fundamental credit analysis on which ratings are based with market sentiment — measured for example by bond spreads — which is arguably subject to more short-term influences. Agencies are adamant that they do not directly incorporate market sentiment into ratings (although they may use market prices as a diagnostic tool). On the contrary, they make every effort to exclude transient market sentiment. However, as reliance on ratings grows, CRAs are being increasingly expected to satisfy a widening range of constituencies, with different, and even sometimes conflicting, interests: issuers and “traditional” asset managers will look for more than a simple statement of near-term probability of loss, and will stress the need for ratings to exhibit some degree of stability over time. On the other hand, mark-to-market traders, active investors and risk managers may seek more frequent indications of credit changes. Hence, in the wake of major bankruptcies with heightened credit stress, rating agencies have been under considerable pressure to provide higher-frequency readings of credit status, without loss of quality. So far, they have responded to this challenge largely by adding more products to their traditional range, but also through modifications in the rating process. The rating process and the range of products offered by rating agencies have thus evolved over time, with, for instance, an increasing emphasis on the analysis of liquidity risks, a new focus on the hidden liabilities of companies and an increased use of market-based tools. It is too early, however, to judge whether these changes should simply be regarded as a refinement of the agencies’ traditional methodology or whether they suggest a more fundamental shift in the approach to credit risk measurement. For the same reason, it is not possible to draw any firm conclusions about changes in the effects of credit ratings on market dynamics.

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the determinants of the Euro term structure of credit spreads. More specifically, we analyze whether the sensitivity of credit spread changes to financial and macroeconomic variables depends on bond characteristics such as rating and maturity. According to the structural models and empirical evidence on credit spreads, we find that changes in the level and the slope of the default-free term structure, the market return, implied volatility, and liquidity risk significantly influence credit spread changes. The effect of these factors strongly depends on bond characteristics, especially the rating and to a lesser extent the maturity. Bonds with lower ratings are more affected by financial and macroeconomic news. Furthermore, we find that liquidity risk significantly increases credit spreads, especially on lower rated bonds.

Abstract: This Paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU eurobonds issued between 1991 and 2002. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premia which increase with the debt, deficit and debt-service ratio and depend positively on the issuer's relative bond market size. Global investors' attitude towards credit risk, measured as the yield spread between low grade US corporate bonds and government bonds, also affects bond yield spreads between EU countries and Germany/USA. The start of the European Monetary Union had significant effects on the bond pricing of the member states.

Abstract: In this paper we assess the importance given in capital markets to the credibility of the European fiscal framework. We evaluate to which extent relevant fiscal policy events taking place in the course of 2002 produced a reaction in the long-term bond segment of the capital markets. Firstly, we identify the fiscal policy events and qualitatively assess the views of capital market participants. Secondly, we estimate the impact of these fiscal events on the interest rate swap spreads, which is our measure for the risk premium. According to our results the reaction of swap spreads, where it turned out to be significant, has been mostly around five basis points or less.

Abstract: This paper examines equilibrium price relationships and price discovery between credit defaul swap (CDS), bond, and equity markets for emerging market sovereign issuers. Findings suggest that CDS and bond spreads converge despite various pressures that arise in the market. In most countries, however, we do not find any equilibrium price relationship between the bond and CDS markets and the equity markets. As for price discovery, our results are mixed. This stands in contrast to the empirical findings on corporate issuers in the United States and Europe.

Abstract: An important body of literature in Financial Economics accepts bond ratings as a sufficient metric for determining homogeneous groups of bonds for estimating either risk-neutral probabilities or spot rate curves for valuing corporate bonds. In this paper we examine Moody’s and Standard & Poors ratings of corporate bonds and show they are not sufficient metrics for determining spot rate curves and pricing relationships. We investigate several bond characteristics that have been hypothesized as affecting bond prices and show that from among this set of measures default risk, liquidity, tax liability, recovery rate and bond age leads to better estimates of spot curves and for pricing bonds. This has implications for what factors affect corporate bond prices as well as valuing individual bonds.

Abstract: In this paper, we document how in the wake of monetary unification the markets for Euro-area sovereign and private-sector bonds have become increasingly integrated. Issuers and investors alike have come to regard the Euro-area bond market as a single one. Primary and secondary bond markets have become increasingly integrated on a pan-European scale. Issuance of corporate bonds has taken off on an unprecedented scale in continental Europe. In the process, both investors and issuers have reaped the considerable benefits afforded by greater competition in the underwriting of private bonds and auctioning of public ones, and by the greater liquidity of secondary markets. Bond yields have converged dramatically in the transition to EMU. The persistence of small and variable yield differentials for sovereign debt under EMU indicates that Euro-area bonds are still not perfect substitutes. However, to a large extent this does not reflect persistent market segmentation but rather small differentials in fundamental risk. Liquidity differences play at most a minor role, and this role appears to arise partly from their interaction with fundamental risk. The challenges still lying ahead are numerous. They include the unbalance between the German-dominated futures and the underlying cash market; the vulnerability of the cash markets' prices to free-riding and manipulation by large financial institutions; the possibility of joint bond issuance by Euro-area countries; the integration of clearing and settlement systems in the Euro-area bond market, and the participation of new accession countries' issuers to this market.

Abstract: What determines the ability of governments from developing countries to access international credit markets? We examine this question using detailed data on sovereign bond issuances and public syndicated bank loans since 1982. We find that traditional measures of a country’s links with the rest of the world (such as trade openness) and traditional liquidity and macroeconomic indicators do not help much in explaining market access. However, a country’s vulnerability to shocks and the perceived quality of its policies and institutions appear to be important determinants of its government’s ability to tap the markets. We are unable to detect strong punishment of defaulting countries by credit markets.

Abstract: Disclosed are novel capital market products, e.g. bonds, equities and like, employing a life settlement policy pool as collateral against repayment of principal. One embodiment is a securitized life settlement bond collateralized by a pool of about 800 senior life settlement policies each bearing death benefits expected to mature within the bond term. At least one single premium immediate annuity (“SPIA”) can be employed to securitize the coupon payments on the bond. Also, an investment instrument, optionally an impaired-risk SPIA can be used to securitize and guarantee the policy premium payments for the life of the insured. Included are methods of pre-funding the costs of supporting the issued bond to make the bond bankruptcy-remote and eligible for a high rating.

Abstract: In a study of the European telecommunication-sector bond market, we find empirical evidence that a firm's new bond issue can temporarily inflate yield spreads of other bonds in its sector. We show that this effect seems unrelated to new fundamental information about the bond's issuer. Our results imply that an issuance of 15.5 billion Euros by Deutsche Telekom temporarily depressed the mark-to-market value of 100 billion Euros in outstanding European telecom debt by approximately 273 million Euros. This study is supported and motivated by a stylized model of a risk-averse liquidity-provider in which supply shocks, such as new issues, place price pressure on correlated securities.

Abstract: This article examines managerial ownership structure and at-issue yield spreads on corporate bonds. There is a positive relation between managerial ownership and borrowing costs, and this relation is weaker at higher levels of ownership. In addition, managerial stock options have a larger effect on yield spreads than stock ownership. These effects exist after controlling for firm and bond characteristics, and are robust to endogeneity and sample selection concerns. The evidence suggests that rational bondholders use the information about a firm's future risk choices contained in managerial incentives structures when pricing new debt issues, and that lenders anticipate higher risk-taking incentives from managerial stock options than from equity ownership.

Abstract: We construct an equally-weighted index of commodity futures monthly returns over the period between July of 1959 and December of 2004 in order to study simple properties of commodity futures as an asset class. Fully-collateralized commodity futures have historically offered the same return and Sharpe ratio as equities. While the risk premium on commodity futures is essentially the same as equities, commodity futures returns are negatively correlated with equity returns and bond returns. The negative