Binomial distribution

Abstract: Probability Theory. Statistical Inference. Some Tests Based on the Binomial Distribution. Contingency Tables. Some Methods Based on Ranks. Statistics of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Type. References. Appendix Tables. Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises. Index.

Abstract: Office hours: MWF, immediately after class or early afternoon (time TBA). We will cover the mathematical foundations of probability theory. The basic terminology and concepts of probability theory include: random experiments, sample or outcome spaces (discrete and continuous case), events and their algebra, probability measures, conditional probability A First Course in Probability (8th ed.) by S. Ross. This is a lively text that covers the basic ideas of probability theory including those needed in statistics. Theoretical concepts are introduced via interesting concrete examples. In 394 I will begin my lectures with the basics of probability theory in Chapter 2. However, your first assignment is to review Chapter 1, which treats elementary counting methods. They are used in applications in Chapter 2. I expect to cover Chapters 2-5 plus portions of 6 and 7. You are encouraged to read ahead. In lectures I will not be able to cover every topic and example in Ross, and conversely, I may cover some topics/examples in lectures that are not treated in Ross. You will be responsible for all material in my lectures, assigned reading, and homework, including supplementary handouts if any.

Abstract: We revisit the problem of interval estimation of a binomial proportion. The erratic behavior of the coverage probability of the stan- d ardWaldconfid ence interval has previously been remarkedon in the literature (Blyth andStill, Agresti andCoull, Santner andothers). We begin by showing that the chaotic coverage properties of the Waldinter- val are far more persistent than is appreciated. Furthermore, common textbook prescriptions regarding its safety are misleading and defective in several respects andcannot be trusted . This leads us to consideration of alternative intervals. A number of natural alternatives are presented, each with its motivation and con- text. Each interval is examinedfor its coverage probability andits length. Basedon this analysis, we recommendthe Wilson interval or the equal- tailedJeffreys prior interval for small n andthe interval suggestedin Agresti andCoull for larger n. We also provide an additional frequentist justification for use of the Jeffreys interval.

Abstract: Preface 1. Introduction 2. The concept of risk 3. Overview of count response models 4. Methods of estimation and assessment 5. Assessment of count models 6. Poisson regression 7. Overdispersion 8. Negative binomial regression 9. Negative binomial regression: modeling 10. Alternative variance parameterizations 11. Problems with zero counts 12. Censored and truncated count models 13. Handling endogeneity and latent class models 14. Count panel models 15. Bayesian negative binomial models Appendix A. Constructing and interpreting interactions Appendix B. Data sets and Stata files References Index.