Apophenia

Abstract: Research summary: This article uses distributional matching and posterior predictive checks to estimate the extent of false and inflated findings in empirical research on strategic management. Based on a sample of 300 papers in top outlets for research on strategic management, we estimate that if each study were repeated, 24–40 percent of significant coefficients would become insignificant at the five percent level. Our best guess is that for about half of these, the true coefficient is very close to 0. The remaining coefficients are likely directionally correct but inflated in magnitude. We offer several practical individual and field level suggestions for reducing scientific apophenia, that is, our tendency to find and publish evidence of order where none exists. Managerial summary: This article analyzes the degree to which statistics in research on strategic management provide meaningful evidence for decision-making. Based on a sample of 300 papers, we estimate that 24%–40% of reported results would probably not be confirmed if the study were repeated. Our best guess is that about half of the reported results are wrong (B∼ = 0) and the other half of results too weak to find repeatedly. We conclude that scientific apophenia—the tendency to find evidence of order where none exists—is a serious problem in the literature on strategic management. We recommend replication of empirical studies to insure that they provide evidence for guiding managers. We also provide guidance for avoiding scientific apophenia in empirical research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract: Conspiracy theories, and suspicion in general, define us as human beings. Our suspicion and tendency to create conspiracy theories have always been with the human race, powered by our evolutionary drive to survive. Although this evolutionary drive to survive is helpful, it can often become extreme and lead to "apophenia." Apophenia refers to the notion of connecting previously unconnected ideas and theories. Unlike learning, apophenia refers to a cognitive, paranoid disorder due to the unreality of the connections they make. Social networks allow people to connect in many ways. Besides communicating with a distant family member and sharing funny memes with friends, people also use social networks to share their paranoid, unrealistic ideas that may cause panic, harm democracies, and gather other unsuspecting followers. In this work, we focus on characterizing the QAnon movement on this http URL. QAnon is a conspiracy theory that supports the idea that powerful politicians, aristocrats, and celebrities are closely engaged in a pedophile ring. At the same time, many governments are controlled by the "puppet masters" where the democratically elected officials serve as a fake showroom of democracy. Voat, a 5-year-old news aggregator, captured the interest of many journalists because of the often hateful content its users' post. Hence, we collect data from seventeen QAnon related subverses to characterize the narrative around QAnon, detect the most prominent topics of discussion, and showcase how the different topics and terms used in QAnon related subverses are interconnected.