Aggregate supply

Abstract: Alternative monetary policies are analyzed in an ad hoc macroeconomic model in which the public's expectations about prices are rational. The ad hoc model is one in which there is long-run neutrality, since it incorporates the aggregate supply schedule proposed by Lucas. Following Poole, the paper studies whether pegging the interest rate or pegging the money supply period by period minimizes an ad hoc quadratic loss function. It turns out that the probility distribution of output--dispersion as well as mean--is independent of the particular deterministic money supply rule in effect, and that under an interest rate rule the price level is indeterminate.

Abstract: Traditionally, household behavior is derived from the maximization of a unique utility function. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach, in which the household is modeled as a two-member collectivity taking Pareto-efficient decisions. The consequences of this assumption are analyzed in a three-good model, in which only total consumption and each member's labor supply are observable. If the agents are assumed egoistic (i.e., they are only concerned with their own leisure and consumption), it is possible to derive falsifiable conditions upon household labor supplies from both a parametric and nonparametric viewpoint. If, alternatively, agents are altruistic, restrictions obtain in the nonparametric context; useful interpretation stems from the comparison with the characterization of aggregate demand for a private-good economy.

Abstract: How important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output? We ask the question at three levels. Can monopolistic competition, by itself, explain why aggregate demand movements affect output? Can it, together with other imperfections, generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot? If so, can it give an accurate account of the response of the economy to aggregate demand movements? The answers are no, yes, and yes.

Abstract: This paper studies the consequences for the behaviour of aggregate output of the perception on the part of firms that changing prices is costly. The rational expectations equilibrium of an economy with many such firms is constructed. It is shown that in this economy nominal shocks have a persistent effect on aggregate output. Furthermore, the real wage is demonstrated to move procyclically in such an economy. There have been two major attempts to build a microeconomic foundation for the existence of fluctuations in aggregate output. The first one is associated with the work of Barro and Grossman (1976) in which prices are assumed to be fixed or else to follow some slow path towards their equilibrium values. The economic agents then proceed to maximize their objective functions subject to the fixed prices and to the rationing that naturally emerges in those markets in which supply is not equal to demand at the going prices. The second attempt is associated with the seminal papers by Lucas (1972, 1975). He built an equilibrium model of the business cycle. In his model the prices are such that people succeed in carrying out the transactions they desire to carry out at these prices. However, agents are assumed to misperceive profitable opportunities. This is due to their inability to observe the value of aggregate statistics like the current levels of prices and of the money supply. Instead monetary injections are momentarily perceived as good opportunities by everybody. Therefore they are followed by increases in aggregate output which dissipate as people learn about the old monetary injections. This paper presents a new attempt at building a model which accounts for the existence of fluctuations in aggregate output in response to nominal disturbances, like an unpredicted injection of money into the economy. Like Lucas' model it is an equilibrium model, albeit not a competitive one. Economic agents maximize their objective functions taking the prices set by the other agents as given. They make the best use of current information in the computation of facts about their current and future economic environment. In fact, the producers, who in this model produce differentiated products, have full information about the present. Namely, they know the prices charged by their suppliers, the price level, and the economy-wide level of nominal money balances. Furthermore they observe their demand and cost functions before they set their prices. These assumptions about the information available to producers sets this model apart from Lucas' and in my view constitute a theoretical advantage. In this model it is the assumption that it costs resources to change prices, possibly due to the difficulties changing prices impose on consumers, that introduced the "rigidity" necessary for the existence of correlated responses in output to uncorrelated nominal shocks. The model is therefore a relative of the Barro-Grossman model in that it is the slow response of prices which is placed at the centre of the explanation of business cycles.