Stranded on a low-carbon planet: : Implications of climate policy for the phase-out of coal-based power plants

TL;DR: A new analysis shows that global warming could be limited to 1.5 °C by 2100, but that the window for achieving this is small and rapidly closing as mentioned in this paper, but this analysis does not consider the effects of human activities.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a survey of the work of the authors of this paper, including the following authors: Katherine Calvin (USA), Joana Correia de Oliveira de Portugal Pereira (UK/Portugal), Oreane Edelenbosch (Netherlands/Italy), Johannes Emmerling (Italy/Germany), Sabine Fuss (Germany), Thomas Gasser (Austria/France), Nathan Gillett (Canada), Chenmin He (China), Edgar Hertwich (USA/Austria), Lena Höglund-Is

TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross domestic product growth.

TL;DR: A comprehensive assessment of ‘committed’ carbon dioxide emissions—from existing and proposed fossil-fuel-based infrastructure—finds that these emissions may exceed the level required to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Abstract: The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report describes progress in understanding of the human and natural drivers of climate change1, observed climate change, climate processes and attribution, and estimates of projected future climate change. It builds upon past IPCC assessments and incorporates new findings from the past six years of research. Scientific progress since the TAR is based upon large amounts of new and more comprehensive data, more sophisticated analyses of data, improvements in understanding of processes and their simulation in models, and more extensive exploration of uncertainty ranges.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios that form the analytical backbone for other contributions to this Special Issue, and analyze the feasibility, costs and uncertainties of meeting a range of different climate stabilization targets in accordance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

TL;DR: This paper provided probabilistic climate projections for different scenarios in a single consistent framework, incorporating the overall consensus understanding of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity, and constrained by the observed historical warming.