Simple Methods for Evaluating and Comparing Binary Experiments
TL;DR: A confidence-augmented receiver operating characteristic is introduced for comparisons of binary experiments for a class of “balanced” decision problems, relative to which the confidence order offers a higher resolution than Blackwell’s informativeness order.
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Abstract: We consider a confidence parametrization of binary information sources in terms of appropriate likelihood ratios. This parametrization is used to construct tools for Bayesian belief updates and for equivalent comparisons of binary experiments. First, we provide a Bayesian Update Diagram, which enables a decision maker to generate belief updates, largely without the use of formulas. Second, we present a Confidence-Augmented ROC Space for sharp comparisons between binary experiments for a class of 'balanced' decision problems. The resulting confidence order offers more resolution than Blackwell's informativeness order.
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