Reply on RC1
Suzy V. Torti
- 12 May 2023
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors reconstruct the Southwest Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) for the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.3–3.0), which has been widely considered a past analogue with an equilibrium surface temperature response of +3 °C to an atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration of ~350&ndhash;400 ppm.
read more
Abstract: <strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Based on Nationally-Determined Contributions concurrent with Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, the IPCC predicts global warming between 2.1–3.5°C (very likely range 10th–90th percentile) by 2100 AD. However, global average temperature is a poor indicator of regional warming and Global Climate Models (GCMs) require validation with instrumental or proxy data from geological archives to assess their ability to simulate regional ocean and atmospheric circulation, and thus, to evaluate their performance for regional climate projections. The Southwest Pacific is a region that performs poorly when GCMs are evaluated against instrumental observations. The New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM) was developed from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM) to better understand Southwest Pacific response to global change, by including a nested ocean grid in the Southwest Pacific with 80 % greater horizontal resolution than the global-scale host. Here, we reconstruct region Southwest Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) for the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.3–3.0), which has been widely considered a past analogue with an equilibrium surface temperature response of +3 °C to an atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration of ~350–400 ppm, to assess the warming distribution in the Southwest Pacific. This study presents proxy SSTs from seven deep sea sediment cores distributed across the Southwest Pacific. Our reconstructed SSTs are derived from molecular biomarkers preserved in the sediment – alkenones (i.e., U<sub>37</sub><em><sup>K'</sup></em> index) and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (i.e., TEX<sub>86</sub> index) and are compared with SSTs reconstructed from the Last Interglacial (125 ka), Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) outputs and transient climate model projections (NZESM and UKESM) of low to high range SSPs for 2090–2099 AD. Mean interglacial equilibrium SSTs during the mPWP for the Southwest pacific sites, were on average, 4.2 °C (1.8–6.1 °C likely range) above pre-industrial and show good agreement with model outputs from NZESM and UKESM under mid-range SSP 2–4.6 conditions. These results highlight that not only is the mPWP an appropriate analogue when considering future temperature change in the centuries to come, but also demonstrate that the Southwest Pacific region will experience warming that exceeds that of the global mean if atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> remains above 350 ppm.
read more
Chat with Paper
AI Agents for this Paper
Find similar papers on Google Scholar, PubMed and Arxiv
Write a critical review of this paper
Analyze citations of this paper to find unaddressed research gaps
References
•Journal Article
R: A language and environment for statistical computing.
TL;DR: Copyright (©) 1999–2012 R Foundation for Statistical Computing; permission is granted to make and distribute verbatim copies of this manual provided the copyright notice and permission notice are preserved on all copies.
410.8K
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
Nick Rayner,David E. Parker,E. B. Horton,Chris K. Folland,Lisa V. Alexander,David P. Rowell,Elizabeth C. Kent,Alexey Kaplan +7 more
TL;DR: HadISST1 as mentioned in this paper replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude-longitude grid from 1871.
10.9K
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Veronika Eyring,Sandrine Bony,Gerald A. Meehl,Catherine A. Senior,Bjorn Stevens,Ronald J. Stouffer,Karl E. Taylor +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21-CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Brian C. O'Neill,Claudia Tebaldi,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Veronika Eyring,Pierre Friedlingstein,George C. Hurtt,Reto Knutti,Elmar Kriegler,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Jason Lowe,Gerald A. Meehl,Richard H. Moss,Keywan Riahi,Keywan Riahi,Benjamin M. Sanderson +15 more
TL;DR: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) as discussed by the authors is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Comparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models.