Optimizing group judgmental accuracy in the presence of interdependencies
Lloyd S. Shapley,Bernard Grofman +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a group of people confronted with a dichotomous choice (for example, a yes or no decision) is considered, and the group decision procedure that maximizes the likelihood that the group will make the better of the two choices open to it is a weighted voting rule that assigns weights, wi, such that the better choice is defined in terms of some linear ordering of the alternatives.
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Abstract: Consider a group of people confronted with a dichotomous choice (for example, a yes or no decision). Assume that we can characterize each person by a probability, pi, of making the 'better' of the two choices open to the group, such that we define 'better' in terms of some linear ordering of the alternatives. If individual choices are independent, and if the a priori likelihood that either of the two choices is correct is one half, we show that the group decision procedure that maximizes the likelihood that the group will make the better of the two choices open to it is a weighted voting rule that assigns weights, wi, such that
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Citations
Ensemble based systems in decision making
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Condorcet's theory of voting
H.P. Young
- 01 Jan 1990
TL;DR: Condorcet resolut ce probleme en utilisant une forme d'estimation par le maximum de vraisemblance, a procedure qu'il en a tiree peut aussi etre justifiee a partir d'une perspective axiomatique moderne as mentioned in this paper.
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Richard O. Duda,Peter E. Hart +1 more
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Reliable Circuits Using Less Reliable Relays
Claude E. Shannon
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TL;DR: In this paper, it is shown that by using a sufficiently large number of relays in the proper manner, circuits can be built which are arbitrarily reliable, regardless of how unreliable the original relays are.