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Optimal Control of an Epidemic through Social Distancing
Thomas Kruse,Philipp Strack +1 more
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify conditions under which the optimal policy is single-peaked, i.e., first engages in increasingly more social distancing and subsequently decreases its intensity.
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Abstract: We analyze how to optimally engage in social distancing (SD) in order to minimize the spread of an infectious disease. We identify conditions under which the optimal policy is single-peaked, i.e., first engages in increasingly more social distancing and subsequently decreases its intensity. We show that the optimal policy might delay measures that decrease the transmission rate substantially to create "herd-immunity" and that engaging in social distancing sub-optimally early can increase the number of fatalities. Finally, we find that optimal social distancing can be an effective measure in substantially reducing the death rate of a disease.
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Citations
Beyond just “flattening the curve”: Optimal control of epidemics with purely non-pharmaceutical interventions
Markus Kantner,Thomas Koprucki +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, an extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and continuous-time optimal control theory are used to compute the optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention strategy for the case that a vaccine is never found and complete containment (eradication of the epidemic) is impossible.
Effects of Physical Distancing to Control COVID-19 on Public Health, the Economy, and the Environment.
TL;DR: An epidemiological-economic model is developed to examine the optimal duration and intensity of physicaldistancing measures aimed to control the spread of COVID-19 and finds that accounting for air pollution co-benefits can significantly increase the intensity and duration of the optimal physical distancing policy.
Pandemics, Vaccines and an Earnings Damage Function
Harrison Hong,Harrison Hong,Jeffrey D. Kubik,Neng Wang,Neng Wang,Xiao Xu,Jinqiang Yang,Jinqiang Yang +7 more
TL;DR: The authors derived a parsimonious model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19 using measures of expected damage from industry-level earnings forecast revisions, and estimate this model with nonlinear least squares and identifying restrictions related to forecast rationality.
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Optimal adaptive testing for epidemic control: combining molecular and serology tests.
Daron Acemoglu,Alireza Fallah,Andrea Giometto,D. Huttenlocher,Asuman Ozdaglar,Francesca Parise,Sarath Pattathil +6 more
- 04 Jan 2021
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the optimal policy is adaptive, with testing rates that depend on the epidemic state, and propose the use of baseline serology testing, which is less sensitive but detects past infections, for the purpose of state estimation.
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Epidemic management with admissible and robust invariant sets.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a detailed set-based analysis of the well-known SIR and SEIR epidemic models subjected to hard caps on the proportion of infective individuals, and bounds on the allowable intervention strategies, such as social distancing, quarantining and vaccination.
References
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.
TL;DR: It is inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks, and that other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks.
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What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios
TL;DR: In this article, a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 in the United States over the next 12-18 months is introduced, which allows quantitative statements regarding the tradeoff between the severity and timing of suppression of the disease through social distancing and the progression in the population.
A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown
Fernando Alvarez,Fernando Alvarez,David Argente,Francesco Lippi,Francesco Lippi,Francesco Lippi +5 more
TL;DR: The optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control the fatalities of a pandemic while minimizing the output costs of the lockdown is studied using the SIR epidemiology model and a linear economy to formalize the planner's dynamic control problem.
•Book
Functional Analysis, Calculus of Variations and Optimal Control
Francis Clarke
- 07 Feb 2013
TL;DR: Normed spaces as mentioned in this paper describe the classical theory of non-mooth extremals, the multiplier rule, and Hamilton-Jacobi methods, as well as other properties of normals.
A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown
TL;DR: In this paper, targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups are studied. But the authors focus on the older groups and do not consider the younger groups.
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