Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model–data differences at decadal and longer periods
Thomas Laepple,Peter Huybers +1 more
TL;DR: A multiproxy estimate of sea surface temperature variability is reported that is consistent between proxy types and with instrumental estimates but strongly diverges from climate model simulations toward longer timescales, indicating substantial problems with models or proxies.
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Abstract: The variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at multidecadal and longer timescales is poorly constrained, primarily because instrumental records are short and proxy records are noisy. Through applying a new noise filtering technique to a global network of late Holocene SST proxies, we estimate SST variability between annual and millennial timescales. Filtered estimates of SST variability obtained from coral, foraminifer, and alkenone records are shown to be consistent with one another and with instrumental records in the frequency bands at which they overlap. General circulation models, however, simulate SST variability that is systematically smaller than instrumental and proxy-based estimates. Discrepancies in variability are largest at low latitudes and increase with timescale, reaching two orders of magnitude for tropical variability at millennial timescales. This result implies major deficiencies in observational estimates or model simulations, or both, and has implications for the attribution of past variations and prediction of future change.
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Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
Levke Caesar,Levke Caesar,Stefan Rahmstorf,Stefan Rahmstorf,Alexander Robinson,Georg Feulner,Vincent S. Saba +6 more
TL;DR: A characteristic ‘fingerprint’ of sea-surface temperatures suggests that the Atlantic overturning circulation has slowed substantially since the mid-twentieth century, as predicted by climate models in response to increasing carbon dioxide emissions.
Eutrophication will increase during the 21st century as a result of precipitation changes.
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Consistent multi-decadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era.
Raphael Neukom,Luis A. Barboza,M. P. Erb,Feng Shi,Julien Emile-Geay,Michael N. Evans,Jörg Franke,Darrell S. Kaufman,Lucie J. Lücke,Kira Rehfeld,Andrew Schurer,Feng Zhu,Stefan Brönnimann,Gregory J. Hakim,Benjamin J. Henley,Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist,Nicholas P. McKay,Veronika Valler,Lucien von Gunten +18 more
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Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models
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Quantifying the Role of Internal Climate Variability in Future Climate Trends
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