Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability

TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate both the isolated and combined effects of different climate-mediated drivers of US electricity system change through 2050, and show that national-level energy and economic impacts are largely driven by increases in electricity demand that follow from a consistent increase in surface air temperature that is largely robust to the choice of climate model.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed spatial distribution and temporal changes in annual amount, intensity, frequency and duration of precipitation statistics based on daily data with a focus on extremes in Finland during 1961-2011, and found significant increases in the amount and intensity of precipitation extremes, more precipitation days, and no clear changes in wet and dry spells.

TL;DR: A number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors re-examine decadal predictability from the lens of the signal-to-noise paradox in the context of CMIP5 models, and demonstrate that the predictability is generally underestimated in CMIP-5 models possibly due to the existence of the Signal-To-Noise paradox.

TL;DR: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance the authors' knowledge of climate variability and climate change.

TL;DR: The second edition of "Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Second Edition" as mentioned in this paper presents and explains techniques used in atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing, and forecasting.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided an assessment of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice.

TL;DR: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010 as mentioned in this paper, which was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period.