Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability

TL;DR: The results show that herbivores can play a critical role in determining warming effects on plant communities and species invasions, and increased native plant performance directly by shifting its lifecycle from annual to perennial, and indirectly by releasing the native from competition via disproportionate increases in herbivory on the invader.

TL;DR: An ensemble of decadal climate predictions is used to demonstrate the ability of sequential learning algorithms (SLAs) to reduce the forecast errors and reduce the uncertainties.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed and calibrated a sophisticated hydrological model with the required accuracy, as an initial step for the future development of a modelling framework that aims to correctly predict the movement of pesticides, sediments or nutrients, and to evaluate water-management practices.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study the long-term variability of heat waves over Argentina and to estimate recurrence probability of the most severe 2008 heat wave in Buenos Aires, by means of simulations with a stochastic first-order autoregressive model.

TL;DR: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance the authors' knowledge of climate variability and climate change.

TL;DR: The second edition of "Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Second Edition" as mentioned in this paper presents and explains techniques used in atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing, and forecasting.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided an assessment of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice.

TL;DR: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010 as mentioned in this paper, which was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period.